Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, 2015 Edition
It's 2015. It's the 19th year of the League. It's the 15th year of the Draft Analysis.
For those of you who have been with the league since the beginning: if you and the Draft Analysis were married--according to the modern version of anniversary gifts by year--you'd have to buy it a watch. Please send all watches directly to my mom's house, where I presently reside because I am a homeless hobo. On second thought, I don't know what a hobo would do with a half-dozen or so watches. Just send money.
On a serious note, this year marks the second consecutive in-person draft, another fantastic event! Mr. McHugh was there! I mean not mentally there, but that's not new. Also: there were laughs, there were huge towers of beer, there were dancing girls. Ok... I mean technically Shelly is a dancing girl of sorts. Or was. When you retire from being a dancing girl, is this title taken away? Does it become dancing girl emeritus? Is anybody listening to me?
Quickly rebooting:
2016 Draft: Saturday, Aug. 27th. Location TBD. Be there or be a douche canoe.
Mark your calendars. Seriously. You jerks do have calendars, right?
Quarterbacks
Presumed Starter Best Replacement Rank Vince Cam Newton Colin Kaepernick 10 Boris Tony Romo Carson Palmer 9 Joe Eli Manning Jameis Winston 11 Rich Andrew Luck [Waiver Wire] 1 JV Drew Brees Tom Brady 8 Geoff Aaron Rodgers Joe Flacco 2 Jason Peyton Manning [Waiver Wire] 7 Pauly Russell Wilson Philip Rivers 3 Steve Matt Ryan Sam Bradford 5 Shelly Ryan Tannehill Alex Smith 12 Brad Matthew Stafford Teddy Bridgewater 6 Scott Ben Roethlisberger Jay Cutler 4 QB Winners
For the second consecutive year, there are no QB winners strictly by the definition of cost of acquisition. 9 projected starting QBs were picked within one round of their average draft position (ADP), which means that the drafter placed proper value on those players. Of these nine, however, just three players were picked behind their ADP: Tony Romo [+10], Ryan Tannehill [+7], and Drew Brees [+6]. Compare this with 2014 where five teams were able to extract positive value, and another two teams were able to snag their starter within one pick of their ADP on the negative side.
QB Losers
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments Pauly Russell Wilson 18 39 -21 Top 4 fantasy QB, but very early for this pick. Not a great value in the second round. Vince Cam Newton 61 85 -24 There's not much to like about Cam this year. He has been running less with every season he has been in the league, and his receiving corps are decimated. If you are going to draft Cam, you need to get positive value... not grab him a full 2 rounds too early. Brad Matthew Stafford 33 76 -43 Forward down the field, a charging team that will not yield. And when the Blue and Silver wave, stand and cheer the brave. Rah, Rah, Rah! Go hard, win the game. With honor you will keep your fame. Down the field and gain, a Lion victory! QB Hot Takes
- After Luck and Rodgers, the QB I'd most want on my roster is Big Ben who was the 5th quarterback off the board. Given the weapons in the passing game and also the early reliance on it due to the Le'Veon Bell suspension, Big Ben is probably the most well positioned quarterback to newly enter the 40+ club (off too a poor start at press time). That said, it is a close call with Russell Wilson with the rushing yardage, and Pauly takes the third spot in the QB rankings over Scott due to the quality of his backup.
Running Backs
Presumed Starters Best Replacement Rank Vince Demarco Murray, T.J. Yeldon Giovani Bernard 8 Boris Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy Isaiah Crowell 4 Joe C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett Latavius Murray 2 Rich Frank Gore, Chris Ivory Andre Ellington 10 JV Jamaal Charles, Mark Ingram Rashad Jennings 1 Geoff Alfred Morris, Todd Gurley Tevin Coleman 9 Jason Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Randle Carlos Hyde 5 Pauly Melvin Gordon, C.J. Spiller [Waiver Wire] 11 Steve LeVeon Bell, Jonathan Stewart LeGarrette Blount 7 Shelly Eddie Lacy, Jeremy Hill Duke Johnson 3 Brad Joique Bell, Ameer Abdullah Tre Mason 12 Scott Matt Forte, Lamar Miller Arian Foster 6 RB Winners
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments JV Rashad Jennings 94 68 +26 I wouldn't like Jennings as a starter, but he is an excellent bye week replacement and a great value in the 7th round for a guy for an RB3 who is capable of producing RB2 numbers if the situation is right. Steve LeGarrette Blount 96 71 +25 Blount is a potential fantasy starter if Belechick actually sticks with him as the primary early down back, but the Patriots running game has been like a box of chocolates since Corey Dillon left town. Still, terrific value in the 7th round and tons of upside here. Rich Chris Ivory 87 65 +22 I see Ivory as a solid RB2 with upside this season, having the path to 3-down usage finally cleared for this underappreciated talent. If the Jets offense is even average, Ivory could really surprise. And obviously at +22, the price is right. Brad Tre Mason 112 94 +18 Who doesn't want to acquire a starting RB in the 9th round, even if it's a temporary arrangement? Gurley will be brought along slowly until he's given the lion's share presumably around mid-season, but even then Mason will continue to have timeshare value in 2015 since the Rams aren't serious contenders. Rich Andre Ellington 58 43 +15 Ellington is overvalued at his mid-4th round ADP, but worth the risk/reward at the end of round 5. The biggest problem with Ellington is that the Cardinals run game just basically sucks (see every other back who has attempted running the football for AZ over the past two yeard), and you're counting on receiving yardage to make up the difference which is inconsistent. Any sort of uptick in rushing production could be a boon, however. Vince Giovani Bernard 85 70 +15 Hill was very impressive last year, but Bernard is still a solid rusher in his own right, and especially in a part time role. Gio will have big games when the Bengals are playing from behind, should see a pretty heavy timeshare especially in the first half of the season, and obviously has a ton of value should Hill get injured. I would have picked Ivory here myself, but my bias is showing. RB Losers
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments Geoff Tevin Coleman 65 82 -17 Coleman has clearly has not separated himself from Devonta Freeman in the preseason, so despite what you might think of his college body of work: a 6th round pick? Really? I see him as a part-timer, and one with a crappy o-line. Brad Joique Bell 40 72 -32 Forward down the field, a charging team that will not yield. And when the Blue and Silver wave, stand and cheer the brave. Rah, Rah, Rah! Go hard, win the game. With honor you will keep your fame. Down the field and gain, a Lion victory! RB Hot Takes
- Joe owns C.J. Anderson but not Ronnie Hillman, which is a travesty. Hillman has outperformed Anderson in preseason and this is not to say that any starting jobs are in jeopardy, but rather that Hillman has already proven and continues to prove that he is a top-flight backup in the NFL. Should anything happen to Anderson, Joe's backfield would plummet to a #9 ranking and eviserate the strength of his lineup... a hole that he could have plugged with a 12th round pick.
- There are rumors that Arian Foster could be back in action as early as week 2. If this occurs and he is truly healthy / able to duplicate some of his past efforts, Scott's team could blow up in more ways than one. A healthy Foster and Matt Forte would be a formidable combination, and could leapfrog Scott into perhaps the Division 3 favorite.
- Ameer Abdullah is the consensus RB 23, but he clearly has the talent and system to outperform this ranking. If Joique Bell never gets going, he could be an RB1 by year end. Too bad that GM Brad also owns Bell, because that makes any upside effectively capped.
Wide Receivers
Presumed Starters Best Replacement Rank Vince Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins Mike Evans 2 Boris Emmanuel Sanders, Sammy Watkins Davante Adams 9 Joe Jeremy Maclin, Jarvis Landry Roddy White 12 Rich Brandin Cooks, Brandon Marshall Steve Smith Sr. 11 JV A.J. Green, Andre Johnson Keenan Allen 7 Geoff Demariyus Thomas, Amari Cooper John Brown 4 Jason Randall Cobb, Allen Robinson Nelson Agholor 10 Pauly Odell Beckham Jr., DeSean Jackson [Waiver Wire] 6 Steve Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton Mike Wallace 1 Shelly Alshon Jeffery, Vincent Jackson Julian Edelman 8 Brad Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate Devin Funchess 5 Scott Dez Bryant, Jordan Matthews Anquan Boldin 3 WR Winners
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments JV Andre Johnson 70 42 +28 Steal o' the draft potential here. It has been said that Andre (who is the man) will not be an every-down receiver for the Colts, but does anyone think that actually matters? If Reggie Wayne can go off for 106-1,355 at the ripe old age of 34, so can the more physically dominant Andre Johnson who had 936 yards last year with no quarterback. Scott Jordan Matthews 62 36 +26 When a receiver has 105 targets, 872 yards and 8 TDs in his rookie year, you take notice! Or rather, I guess nobody takes notice? Which is why he slips over two rounds in value? Matthews is primed for a monster year, and Scott got away with murder here. Jason Allen Robinson 100 75 +25 Allen Robinson is a diamond in the rough in Jacksonville, but nobody knows if Blake Bortles is capable of getting him the ball. If Bortles improves, Robinson could be a top-15 wideout. If Bortles continues to blow goats, however, Robinson will blow the same goats. Worth the upside potential at pick 100. Rich Steve Smith Sr. 111 93 +18 The only thing that can stop The Real Steve Smiff is time, but I'm guessing similar to last year he will defeat Father Time for 6 or 7 weeks before finally succumbing to him. Still a value at pick 111 as an excellent early bye week replacement. Geoff John Brown 113 98 +15 I love me some John Brown and suspected he was not fully appreciated, but opted for The Real Steve Smith in the same round. Arguably, Brown has higher upside. He is every bit as good as Floyd who is starting the season injured, and Fitzgerald is clearly on the downside of his career. Excellent pick that should pay real dividends. Brad Devin Funchess 129 114 +15 Sure, what the hell! Why not! Someone besides Greg Olsen will have to catch passes from Cam Newton now that their top weapon has been lost for the year. Will it be Jerricho Cotchery? Will it be Philly Brown? Can Devin Funchess even catch an NFL football? At pick 129 with over a round in value, why not give it a whirl?? WR Losers
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments Scott Anquan Boldin 86 105 -19 I don't hate this pick because I think Q is still a grown-ass man and has gas left in the tank, but strictly by the numbers this was not a value selection. Brad Golden Tate 16 44 -28 Forward down the field, a charging team that will not yield. And when the Blue and Silver wave, stand and cheer the brave. Rah, Rah, Rah! Go hard, win the game. With honor you will keep your fame. Down the field and gain, a Lion victory! WR Hot Takes
- Geoff's receivers have the most potential to outperform their ranking. Amari Cooper has unlimited potential with decent quarterback play if the Raiders can manage it, and John Brown could end up as the leading receiver in AZ.
Tight Ends
Presumed Starter Best Replacement Rank Vince Jordan Cameron Antonio Gates 10 Boris Greg Olsen Heath Miller 3 Joe Jimmy Graham [Waiver Wire] 2 Rich Rob Gronkowski Julius Thomas 1 JV Martellus Bennett Owen Daniels 5 Geoff Zach Ertz Larry Donnell 7 Jason Delanie Walker [Waiver Wire] 6 Pauly Tyler Eifert Josh Hill 11 Steve Jason Witten Kyle Rudolph 8 Shelly Travis Kelce Jordan Reed 4 Brad Austin Seferian-Jenkins Eric Ebron 12 Scott Dwayne Allen Coby Fleener 9 TE Hot Takes
- Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the league, but he is truly in a class of his own from a fantasy perspective and an enormous advantage for GM Rich. You can like Jimmy Graham's talent as much as you want as the clear second-best NFL tight end, but consider: in 2014, New Orleans had more pass completions (456) than Seattle had attempts (454).
- Given the above, the price to obtain Jimmy Graham was just too high. For my money I would much rather have Greg Olsen at #44 than Jimmy at #15.
- All that said, notice the concentration of tight end talent in D1. Coincidence? Or skill?
Defenses/Special Teams
Presumed Starter Best Replacement Rank Vince New York Jets Eagles 10 Boris Denver Broncos Chiefs 4 Joe New England Patriots Dolphins 5 Rich Indianapolis Colts Buccaneers (Jaguars) 8 JV Pittsburgh Steelers [Waiver Wire] 12 Geoff Houston Texans [Waiver Wire] 3 Jason Carolina Panthers [Waiver Wire] 6 Pauly Seattle Seahawks Rams 1 Steve Green Bay Packers Cardinals 7 Shelly Buffalo Bills [Waiver Wire] 2 Brad Detroit Lions [Waiver Wire] 9 Scott Cincinnati Bengals [Waiver Wire] 11 D/ST Hot Takes
Final Quantitative Draft Analysis
Below you will find (finally) what you have been waiting for--the final numerical draft analysis!
As usual, unweighted average is just the mean of the five positional scores. Expected points takes into consideration positional weight, comparing rank against historical scoring and adjusting for quality of backups on bye weeks. No, I will not share the formula with you! Stop asking, you're embarassing yourself.
QB RB WR TE DEF Unweighted Average Expected Points Rank Rich 1 10 11 1 8 6.2 1429 1 Shelly 12 3 8 4 2 5.8 1425 2 Steve 5 7 1 8 7 5.6 1406 3 Boris 9 4 9 3 4 5.8 1393 4 Geoff 2 9 4 7 3 5.0 1375 5 Scott 4 6 3 9 11 6.6 1349 6 JV 8 1 7 5 12 6.6 1329 7 Vince 10 8 2 10 10 8.0 1310 8 Joe 11 2 12 2 5 6.4 1273 9 Jason 7 5 10 6 6 6.8 1252 10 Pauly 3 11 6 11 1 6.4 1213 11 Brad 6 12 5 12 9 8.8 1101 12
Divisional Predictions, Brought to you by B-Dubs Finest Bourbon
Chance Coach Comments D1 Favorite 40% Rich Anchored by the best fantasy quarterback and tight end in the league and surrounded by role players with low fantasy floors, this team will be a mark of scoring consistency year round and should pile up the wins. Scoring big enough to win in the playoffs may be another story, but showing up to week 15 is 80% of the battle. Just win, baby! Contender 30% Boris Boris has an all-around solid team, with no real weaknesses and solid depth at every position. A contender for the division if he can defeat Rich in key matchups, and one of the top candidates for the wildcard otherwise due to relative weakness on the bottom half of the division. 20% Joe Uninspiring squad with an on-paper advantage at RB, but no real strengths at any other position. QB is middling, WRs are middling, and Jimmy Graham is a "best of the rest" tight end this season. Will have a hard time competing with the likes of Rich and Boris for the division. Probably will extend D1 participation streak by virtue of Vince not paying attention in-season. 10% Vince WRs on this team are bordering on excellent, but all other positions are suspect at best. Vince would need to trade himself back into contention due to divisional strength, but he did not have the fire in his eyes at the draft to warrant any belief along these lines. D2 Favorite 40% Geoff The favorite in D2, but also vulnerable given serious questions at the Running Back position. If Geoff has a winning record by week 7 when the Rams come back from the bye and Gurley is everything as advertised, Geoff will be cooking with gas. Otherwise, he will almost certainly give up ground to JV. Contender 35% JV Steelers D/ST was a really good choice, for me to poop on. JV struck oil with the #1 backfield in Charles and Ingram (with a really solid reserve in Jennings), surrounded it with relative balance at QB, WR, and TE, and then followed that up with a giant turd of a D that was good like 10 years ago. This will force JV to stream defenses off the wire all year or give up depth in a trade, both of which point to boom or bust management maneuvers. This one could go either way. 20% Jason This is not a bad team by any measure--WRs are the weakest link but still pass the eye test--but while there are no real weaknesses on this team, there are also no real strengths. The morality clause equals mediocrity. 7-7 ay day. 5% Pauly This ranking is representative of a typical Mr. McHugh draft. First round pick is pretty good, second round pick is a bit of a stretch, third round pick is a bit of a head-scratcher, and then the whole kit and caboodle falls right off the cliff into oblivion... which is where this team will spend most of the 2015 season. I mean two defenses in the first 7 rounds?? Mr. McHugh, you have outdone yourself sir. D3 Favorite 40% Shelly The first of three great drafts by D3 representatives. QB is the weakest position, but Tannehill isn't a chump and could produce at the Drew Brees level with one more small step forward. RBs are borderline frightening, WRs are underrated, and complimentary positions are all above average. This is currently the best D3 team on paper, but GM Shelly will have to actively manage this talented roster week-to-week to maximize its output, as this division will be a bloodbath. Contender 33% Steve Nobody is laughing at Steve anymore after this draft--at least not related to fantasy football. I mean his face is still messed up, haha... haha, but I digress. My point is that Auto-Steve is no longer the king of the hill, as this draft was solid. WRs are tops, all other positions are average or better, and there is no lack of depth. Steve is a more experienced manager than Shelly, will fight for the division, and is well-positioned for title contention if a playoff spot is landed. Contender 27% Scott OK, who let this guy in here? Doesn't he know that he's supposed to suck for the first couple seasons? In all seriousness, this could be the surprise of the year. Scott's team is good, and potentially really good if Arian Foster comes back early and Scott can parlay epic RB depth into improving his starting lineup elsewhere. WTF 0% Brad Forward down the field, a charging team that will not yield. And when the Blue and Silver wave, stand and cheer the brave. Rah, Rah, Rah! Go hard, win the game. With honor you will keep your fame. Down the field and gain, a Lion victory!
Playoff Analysis
D3 appears to be the strongest, so it's fair to say that the wild card will not come from this division as Shelly, Steve, and Scott should pound each other down to divisional splits, and although Boris (and Ukraine) is strong you have to give the nod to Joe and his track record for doing just enough to continue to hang around and ruin Boris' chances, so I'm awarding the wild card to JV for the purposes of this analysis.
Therefore, the fantasy playoffs round 1 projection is as follows:
- Geoff (winner of D1) vs Shelly (winner of D3)
I mean let's be honest (suck it Joe), we all know what happens from this point forward: I win, JV loses, and then I win the championship against whoever blah blah blah. I mean, it's been 15 years... you guys really need to figure out how to win a Draft Analysis one of these days.
Super Summary Section
Your team sucks. I'm the best in the game!
Sincerely,
Rich Fusinski, MBA, ITIL
Supreme Commissioner for Life of the Democratic People's Republic of Fantasy Football
League Champion 1998, 2000, 2010, 2014, and probably 2015
Edgerrin James Award Winner 2001, 2004, and 2008
Best Regular Season Winner 2000, 2010, and 2014
Keeper League Champion 2003, 2010, and 2011
League Leader in Lifetime Playoff Appearances
Same for the Keeper League Too, Suckers!
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