Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, 2014 Edition
It's 2014. It's the 18th year of the League. It's the 14th year of the Draft Analysis.
How in the world are you gonna stop this duo?
Before we get into the meat of this thing, let's quickly reflect on this year's draft:
Last year: 4 bots, 3 remote drafters. This year: 0 bots, 0 remote drafters. There was some league attrition, but it was worth it. It was a good event. Thanks y'all for participating. The tradition and pageantry is back.
And on that note:
2015 Draft: Saturday, Aug. 29th. 1 PM. Location TBD. Be there or be a douche canoe.
Mark your calendars. Seriously. You jerks do have calendars, right?
Format Change
This year I'm doing a little something different with the analysis partially due to time constraints but also because I'm all about the consensus. I will of course stick to the ranking of each team's players by position, but instead of pages and pages of content (sorry--I actually work for a living now), I will compare picks versus their average draft position (ADP) to show where people got value and also reached. With that said, here we go...
Quarterbacks
Presumed Starter Best Replacement Rank Boris Jay Cutler Ben Rapistberger 11 Vince Matt Ryan Andy Dalton 8 Joe Drew Brees Russell Wilson 2 JV Philip Rivers Joe Flacco 12 Rich Andrew Luck Tony Romo 4 Steve Peyton Manning Eli Manning 3 Jason Nick Foles EJ Manuel 6 Geoff Aaron Rodgers Colin Kaepernick 1 Sean Cam Newton Carson Palmer 7 Pauly Matthew Stafford Sam "Waivers" Bradford 5 Shelly Robert Griffin III Alex Smith 9 Brad Tom Brady 10 QB Winners
None strictly by the definition of cost of acquisition. 8 of 12 starting QBs were picked within 5 spots of their average draft position (ADP), and QB1 is so deep it's hard to find value. The biggest winners in this area are those who picked a solid backup: Geoff (Kaepernick), Joe (Wilson), and Rich (Romo). All three of these QBs are capable fantasy starters in their own right and provide a safety net that 9 other teams don't have.
QB Losers
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments Pauly Matthew Stafford 45 39 +6
The score here is misleading. Although there appears to be positive value in this selection, the price of acquisition was too high via trade with Joe. According to fantasy trade analysis this was a lopsided event, presenting 44% more value to Joe. Jason Nick Foles 48 61 -13 Bad value strictly by the cost of acquisition (a round early), but if this is your guy and you don't have a pick for 23 more selections I guess I can't blame you. Sean Cam Newton 50 66 -16 Similar story to the above, but Foles probably has more upside and the cost of acquisiton here was slightly higher. I'm not sure there is enough of a difference between Newton, Brady, Ryan, and Wilson to bother with this selection when it means passing on the remaining tight ends. Boris Jay Cutler 62 93 -31 Is this the year Cutler puts it together and becomes a top-10 QB? I'm not sure. I think if you want to experiment with this, you go get him as a QB2 behind proven talent (which is totally feasible as Cutler could have been had 2+ rounds later--he wasn't in most lists' top 12). QB Quick Takes
- (Rodgers + Kaepernick) > (Manning + Manning)
- Waiver Wire > EJ Manuel. Why waste the roster spot?
Running Backs
Presumed Starters Best Replacement Rank Boris Montee Ball, Arian Foster Ryan Mathews 2 Vince Matt Forte, Reggie Bush Frank Gore 5 Joe Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington Maurice Jones-Drew 6 JV Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin Chris Johnson 3 Rich Giovani Bernard, Toby Gerhart Joique Bell 7 Steve Ben Tate, Ray Rice Darren Sproles 11 Jason Jamaal Charles, Stevan Ridley Lamar Miller 4 Geoff Marshawn Lynch, Trent Richardson Pierre Thomas 9 Sean LeSean McCoy, Alfred Morris Rashad Jennings 1 Pauly Fred Jackson, Mark Ingram Khiry Robinson 12 Shelly DeMarco Murray, Zac Stacy Darren McFadden 8 Brad LeVeon Bell, CJ Spiller Shane Vereen 10 RB Winners
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments Sean Rashad Jennings 71 46 +25 Sean picked up Rashad Jennings more than a full two rounds after his ADP. That is god damn value, folks, for a RB who is going to get the bulk of the carries on his team. Brad Shane Vereen 80 57 +23 You can make the argument that Vereen is the RB to own on the Patriots--at press time a Pats beat writer suggested that Ridley might not even make the team. Even if Ridley takes the majority of the carries (for a while, until he fumbles), however, Vereen is still in line for an 80-catch season. JV Chris Johnson 75 58 +17 Another fantastic value. Although splitting time with Ivory, the Jets are going to run a lot and if the preseason is any indication, CJ has plenty left in the tank. Jason Lamar Miller 96 82 +13 Lamar Miller is too good of a flier value at 8.12 despite his Lamar Millerness. Rich Toby Gerhart 55 42 +13 I have no idea if Toby Gerhart is going to be any good. I am obviously not alone in that thought since he's projected to play all three downs in JAX and yet he was available at pick 55. No risk no reward though, and getting a one-round discount is my kind of risk. RB Losers
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments Shelly Zac Stacy 15 27 -12 For my money, Bernard was the play here all day if I was intent on going RB-RB. Team would be better with either of the next two picks off the board (Dez Bryant or AJ Green) or one of the elite QBs. Vince Reggie Bush 20 32 -12 I don't like to spend a 2nd round pick on a time-share guy as my RB2, and especially don't like to reach an entire round early with a 2nd round pick on a time-share guy as my RB2. Is Bush even the best RB on the Lions? Brees was the play here. Pauly Fred Jackson 81 96 -15 This is what happens when you're desperate for a RB1 in the 7th round--you pick an old fogey splitting a share of the Bills backfield. Steve Ben Tate 37 60 -23 Fun times in Cleveland today! Ryan Mathews went off the board one pick after Ben Tate. Let that sink in for a minute. At least he later picked up Terrance West who might be more talented than Tate. RB Prospects Who May Change the Game
RB Quick Takes
- Brad's backfield: all-potential team
- Joe should have picked Matt Forte instead of Eddie Lacy at #4. Joe said, "You know I always pick someone other than the consensus." Yeah, I know.
Wide Receivers
Presumed Starters Best Replacement Rank Boris Alshon Jeffery, Mike Wallace Jeremy Maclin 9 Vince Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson Julian Edelman 8 Joe Percy Harvin, Golden Tate Are you there God? It's me, Joe 12 JV Roddy White, TY Hilton Michael Crabtree 11 Rich Cornbread Johnson, Cordarrelle Patterson Emmanuel Sanders 2 Steve Demaryius Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald Anquan Boldin 4 Jason Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson Tavon Austin 1 Geoff Randall Cobb, Pierre Garçon Torrey Smith 6 Sean Julio Jones, Keenan Allen Michael Floyd 5 Pauly Dez Bryant, Eric Decker Brandin Cooks 7 Shelly Andre Johnson, Victor Cruz Marques Colston 10 Brad AJ Green, Vincent Jackson Kendall Wright 3 WR Winners
Look at all the value up in this bitch! This is evidence that the league drastically underrates the importance of the WR position, as big value can be found not only in the mid- and late rounds, but early on as well (see Brandon Marshall).
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments Pauly Brandin Cooks 129 95 34 Steal of the draft from a WR perspective. With 4.33 speed, Cooks is widely believed to be one the best rookies this year. Rich Cordarrelle Patterson 79 49 30 Disturbingly underrated thanks to a weak rookie year, Patterson possesses top-end speed and playmaking ability. More upside than practically any WR in the draft. Boris Sammy Watkins 110 83 27 Virtual lock (barring injury) for 800 yards and half a dozen scores as a rookie. Not bad for a 10th round selection. Vince Julian Edelman 92 68 24 Tom Brady's only reliable target who went for over 1000 yards last year. No respect! Shelly Victor Cruz 63 40 23 Concerns over Eeyore's arm drove Cruz down the charts. 4th round talent in the 6th round? Yes please. Joe Kenny Britt 189 166 23 Currently the #1 receiver in STL, but that could be lip service. Probably irrelevant as Britt hasn't done anything meaningful for years, but a good late round flier at a steep discount. Rich Emmanuel Sanders 90 71 19 Eric Decker went for 1288-11 in this offense last year, and Sanders is more talented. Injury to Wes Welker makes this underrated WR even more valuable. Sean Michael Floyd 74 56 18 The Matrix is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth. Floyd is the ARI receiver to own, 4 rounds after Larry Fitzgerald and at an 18-pick discount. Free your mind, Neo. Vince Brandon Marshall 29 15 14 One of the surest bets to post a 1200 yard and double-digit TD season, yet available in the mid third. I'll bet half of of the 2nd and 3rd round RBs won't fare that well. Boris Mike Wallace 86 73 13 Any day you can get a team #1 wideout in the 8th round is a good day. I expect better things out of Wallace this year. Sean Keenan Allen 47 34 13 Should have been selected before at least 3 other guys at the same position. WR Losers
GM Selection Pick ADP Value Score Comments Joe Golden Tate 69 81 -12 Joe has a lot of faith in Golden Tate so he will dispute this value score all day, and in fairness Joe did think he had Welker locked up at WR2 when making this pick. But that doesn't change the fact that he overpaid and that there were better options on the board at the time. Steve Anquan Boldin 109 129 -20 Not a horrible play in the 10th round despite overpaying for the talent, but I'm taking a shot on someone like Sammy Watkins or Kelvin Benjamin here instead of an old timer. Pauly Eric Decker 40 86 -46 Paul thought Eric Decker was still on the Broncos. Well I've got a newsflash for you, Walter Cronkite: he's not. WR Quick Takes
- If I could just believe Percy Harvin could stay healthy, Joe would move up 5 spots in the rankings. But that's crazy talk.
- The risks of drafting the weekend before labor day = Wes Welker concussed roughly 6 hours after he was selected. Almost like he got Gilloolied by a league member.
Tight Ends
Presumed Starter Best Replacement Rank Boris Greg Olsen Marcedes Lewis 10 Vince Kyle Rudolph Tyler Eifert 9 Joe Zach Ertz Eric Ebron 7 JV Julius Thomas 3 Rich Rob Gronkowski Ladarius Green 2 Steve Dennis Pitta Antonio Gates 8 Jason Jordan Reed Jared Cook 5 Geoff Charles Clay Delanie Walker 12 Sean Martellus Bennett Dwayne Allen 11 Pauly Jimmy Graham Vernon Davis 1 Shelly Jordan Cameron Heath Miller 4 Brad Jason Witten Coby Fleener 6 TE Quick Takes
- Steal #1: Zach Ertz at 9.04, 12th TE off the board. Huge upside.
- Steal #2: Ladarius Green at 14.06. One Gates foot injury away from being a top 5 guy. Maybe a top 12 guy regardless.
Defenses/Special Teams
Presumed Starter Best Replacement Rank Boris Chiefs Bills 9 Vince Texans Eagles 10 Joe Seahawks 1 JV Bengals 4 Rich Patriots 8 Steve 49ers Lions 2 Jason Steelers Ravens 11 Geoff Cardinals Buccaneers 6 Sean Panthers 5 Pauly Broncos 3 Shelly Rams Bears 7 Brad Packers 12 D/ST Quick Takes
- Fact: There are games were the Lions are a better defensive play than the 49ers. Nice mini-committee, if you will.
- I don't want to live in a world where Steelers + Ravens = 11th ranked fantasy D/ST
Final Quantitative Draft Analysis
Below you will find (finally) what you have been waiting for--the final numerical draft analysis!
As usual, unweighted average is just the mean of the five positional scores. Expected points takes into consideration positional weight, comparing rank against historical scoring and adjusting for quality of backups on bye weeks. No, I will not share the formula with you! Stop asking, you're embarassing yourself.
QB RB WR TE DEF Unweighted Average Expected Points Rank Rich 4 7 2 2 8 4.6 1372 1 Jason 6 4 1 5 11 5.4 1345 2 Sean 7 1 5 11 5 5.8 1311 3 JV 12 3 11 3 4 6.6 1256 4 Vince 8 5 8 9 10 8.0 1243 5 Steve 3 11 4 8 2 5.6 1235 6 Geoff 1 9 6 12 6 6.8 1225 7 Boris 11 2 9 10 9 8.2 1214 8 Joe 2 6 12 7 1 5.6 1207 9 Shelly 9 8 10 4 7 7.6 1191 10 Brad 10 10 3 6 12 8.2 1170 11 Pauly 5 12 7 1 3 5.6 1145 12
Divisional Predictions, Brought to you by B-Dubs Finest Bourbon
Chance Coach Comments D1 Favorite 40% JV JV is the favorite to win this division, but not by much unless Rivers can pull off another top-5 QB finish. Depth is solid at RB, and JV is strong enough everywhere to be the D1 favorite. Contender 35% Vince There really isn't a ton to like about this team outside of Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall. Yet despite Vince's collection of uninspiring starters, I expect them to produce with regularity and consistently. If you have an average week when you play Vince, you will lose. 15% Boris Boris will contend if and only if 1) Arian Foster and/or Ryan Mathews stay reasonably healthy, 2) Jay Cutler does his best not-Jay-Cutler impression, and 3) either Mike Wallace or Jeremy Maclin manages to put it together. It's a tall order, but it could happen. 10% Joe Joe is going to have to trade his way out of this hole and a few of his gambles are going to have to pay off. I suppose the good news is: he usually does, and that usually happens. D2 Favorite 35% Rich A healthy Gronk is really the key to Rich winning this division, but he is well rounded and deep enough at QB, RB, and WR to score points at all times. Contender 25% Jason The biggest concern with this team is depth--there are no legitimate backups at any position. As long as this team stays healthy it will contend, but I can't recall the last time I went through a fantasy season without needing to rely on my bench for moderate stretches of time. 20% Steve The Broncos passing game should be good enough to get this team a few wins, but Steve's RBs are questionable and will yield volatile team scoring. If Peyton were to go down this team would be completely dead in the water. 20% Geoff Having had Aaron Rodgers in the keeper league for many years, I know that Rodgers will win Geoff some games by himself. I also love me some Randall Cobb. But the Trent Richardson is not an NFL-caliber running back, and Charles Clay is a marginal starter. Geoff should be able to trade himself into contention if Kaeperick plays well, and he should start thinking about that now. D3 Favorite 70% Sean A much better drafter than Seanbot, Sean quietly put together one of the best teams in the league. The biggest question mark on this team is TE, but with stars everywhere else that is a survivable deficiency. Sean should run away with this division unless something crazy happens. 15% Shelly SHEER PANIC!!! But not bad for a rookie. Shelly put together a pretty well-balanced team, but it's a bit too "by the book" for my tastes and isn't above-average anywhere but TE. This team will win some games but lacks real firepower. 10% Brad If Gronk can stay healthy, Tom Brady has top 5 QB potential. If Spiller can stay healthy, he has top 5 RB potential. If LeVeon Bell can rush for just 4 fucking yards per carry, he too could have top 5 potential. But if "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas. 5% Pauly Paul has a lot to learn about fantasy football, and we are happy to take his money until he figures it out.
Playoff Analysis
The Analysis projects that round 1 of the playoffs will be:
- JV (winner of D1) vs Sean (winner of D3)
Rich will of course defeat Jason and nobody cares who wins between JV and Sean because both would see themselves crushed by the might of Rich's team in the fantasy championship round en route to the Edgerrin James' trophy,
Super Summary Section
Your team sucks. I'm the best in the game!
Sincerely,
Rich Fusinski, MBA
Supreme Commissioner for Life of the Democratic People's Republic of Fantasy Football
League Champion 1998, 2000, 2010, and probably 2014
Edgerrin James Award Winner 2001, 2004, and 2008
League Leader in Lifetime Playoff Appearances
General Manager of the Year Emeritus
Editor-in-Chief
Destroyer of Worlds
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