Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, 2013 Edition
Triskaidekaphobia is the fear of the number 13.
Not only is it the year 2013, but this is the 13th edition of the draft analysis!
Logophobia is the fear of words. Last year's analysis had a word count of 4,817 words--scary!
Rhabdophobia is the fear of being severely criticized. Your team sucks!
Therefore, the fear of the 13th installment of the Draft Analysis shall be henceforth referred to as triskaidekalogorhabdophobia. If you have triskaidekalogorhabdophobia, I would suggest you stop reading now. And if you have eurotophobia like Joe, I would suggest seeking professional help.
For those of you still with me, welcome back to the draft analysis! For the 13th consecutive season, I have labored for hours at the expense of both work and home-based productivity for the chance to amuse you but for a small fraction of your day, and tell you all the reasons why my team will be better than yours (as if it really needed an explanation).
So without further ado, let's get to the butt-whippin'!
Preamble (Read: Public Shaming)
Before we get into position rankings, I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere horror that a third of the league auto-drafted this year, and to make matters worse, Tom had his wife draft for him to go to a danish metal band concert or something, and only 5 people showed up in person. So look, you fuckers--most of us have kids, we most of us have jobs (hours), and even some of us really don't give a flying fuck about professional football. BUT HOLY JESUS CHRIST, over half of us have been doing this thing now for 17 years, since before Joe had pubic hair! SACK UP AND SHOW UP FOR THE DRAFT! Participate in drinking booze and eating doritos and doing other manly things!
Take the time out of your busy lives to hang out with your friends! This is a tradition worth keeping and we've probably got 50 years left of it. If you're not interested, say so. You're not obligated, and we can replace you. But probably we don't want to.
So next year we are going to make this an event. No more catering to your lame-butt schedules. We are going to do this on a Saturday night. It is man camp without the camp. We will put the wives and kids and jobs to the side, and we will consume alcohol and sugary beverages, eat red meat and corn-based junk food, gamble, give each other the business, and DRAFT. So unless you're stuck around a major life event, plan on being there. Get a babysitter in advance. Buy your wife a spa night. Tell your boss you've got a tape worm. I don't care if you have to fly into Detroit from another continent. You have a whole year to prepare. And it will be fun, goddammit. FUN.
2014 Draft: Sat., August 23rd. 4:00 PM. Location TBD. Be there or be a douche canoe.
OK, now I'm ready to get off my soap box and on to the butt-whippin'. Getcha popcorn ready.
Quarterbacks
Presumed Starter Rank Backups (Quality Rank) JV Cam Newton 4 Ben Rapistberger (7) Joe Drew Brees 1 Matt Schaub (4) Vince Tony Romo 7 Josh Freeman (8) Boris Matt Ryan 6 Jay Cutler (6) Rich Russell Wilson 12 Andy Dalton (1) Jason Colin Kaepernick 8 Carson Palmer (10) Wifey Andrew Luck 9 Eli Manning (2) Dave Robert Griffin III 10 Sam Bradford (5) Stevebot Matthew Stafford 11 Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers (3) Seanbot Aaron Rodgers 2 Geoffbot Tom Brady 5 Jimbot Peyton Manning 3 Michael Vick (9) The difference between the top QB last year and the 12th QB last year was 109 points. Even after eliminating the elite tier, the difference was still 72 points, or roughly 5 fantasy points per week. The lesson here is that despite what all the fantasy magazines tell you about unprecidented depth at the QB position, there is still tremendous value in drafting a high-quality quarterback early once the elite RBs are off the board (and this year, by elite RBs I mean Peterson).
So why, Rich, did you wait until the very last possible minute to draft your quarterback? I really just waited too long. The way I see it, the elite tier of QBs consists of Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, and for these two guys I say fire away. But after that--with the borderline exception of Manning--you might as well wait. Securing quality starters at other positions begins to trump QB value thereafter, at least for a couple rounds. In the end, I simply waited too many rounds.
Where I think the risk/reward play was this year was in the middle tier of starters, namely in RGIII and Kaepernick. Jason and Dave may be laughing all the way to the bank with these picks should they threaten elite numbers. Dave picked up RGIII at pretty much the exact right risk/reward/value position, and Kaepernick's value at 6.7 is solid.
But where I think the safest and best play was this year was in one of the following: Luck or Romo (kudos to the Levigne extended family). Both of these guys are capable of 4000+ yards and 30+ TDs, and that you can secure one of them in late 6 or early 7 is just absurd.
In summary, let's break down the QB picks:
GM Selection Comments Great Value Vince Romo (7.4) Black sheep of fantasy despite throwing for 4,900 yards last year (and 4K+ regularly). Playoff choking doesn't matter in fantasy football. Good Value Joe Brees (2.4) Brees faces an easier schedule than Rodgers this year, and deserved to be the first QB off the board. Joe waited and got paid. Jason Kaepernick (6.7) We'll see how the NFL responds to film on CK, but he looks like the real deal. Last year's numbers project out to the #9 QB and they didn't take the reigns off of him until playoff time. Wifey Luck (6.11) The #10 fantasy QB last year as a rookie, I expect Luck to take a step forward. Just Right Seanbot Rodgers (1.12) He wouldn't have made it much past this spot. A fine selection. Boris Ryan (4.2) Matty Ice isn't a sexy pick but he is highly effective. 4th round is right. JV Newton (4.3) Newton had five games of 29+ points last year, but he can be maddening from a fantasy perspective because he's good for few 12s in there, too. And after posting 40, 30, and 29 in weeks 12-14, he regressed to 19 and 22 in the fantasy playoffs against crap defenses. Still, you'll live with this if you're getting him in the 4th. Dave RGIII (5.1) All world until he hurt himself last year, but injury concerns cannot be overlooked. 5th round is about right--it's the proper amount of risk. Too Safe Geoffbot Brady (3.5) Brady is probably due for his worst statistical season in years due to departed talent. Expect pre-Moss numbers to return. Jimbot Manning (2.6) I wouldn't have done it myself. There is virtually no statistical difference between Manning and Matty Ice, picked two rounds later. Too Soon Stevebot Stafford (4.10) See below for special Lions commentary. Too Bad Rich Wilson (7.8) I highly advocated waiting for a QB selection this year, but there was a fine line (Luck/Romo). The blood price for crossing it is QB by committee. Out of the above selections, the one that scares me the most is Stafford. For as unhappy with myself as I am for not securing Luck or Romo, I am way more comfortable with Wilson at 7.8 than with Stafford at 4.10. After watching the entire Lions preseason, after once suspecting Stafford to return to 2011 form, I can't help but think that 2012 was not an abberation; nobody but Johnson and Bush can get open, and Stafford's mechanics seemingly continue to regress. I had Stafford my 11th ranked QB just ahead of Wilson, and he was selected three rounds earlier. Bad value.
Running Backs
Buckle up, kids. Almost every position writeup in this analysis is in summary format, but the Running Backs section is the full monty. You can thank Labor Day weekend for the many words that follow, along with a special nod to business school for changing my perception on volume of work.
Presumed Starters Rank Relevant Backups (Rank) JV C.J. Spiller, David Wilson 7 DeAngelo Williams (3) Joe Alfred Morris, Maurice Jones-Drew 5 Giovani Bernard (4) Vince Trent Richardson, Frank Gore 4 Reggie Bush (1) Boris Matt Forte, Darren McFadden 8 Law Firm, Le'Veon Bell (6) Rich LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson 2 Rashard Mendenhall (7) Jason Jamaal Charles, Steven Jackson 3 Daryl Richardson (5) Wifey Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray 6 Dave Adrian Peterson, Steven Ridley 1 Ryan Mathews, Shane Vereen (2) Stevebot Arian Foster, Darren Sproles 10 Ronnie Hillman (9) Seanbot Eddie Lacy, Chris Ivory 12 Geoffbot Marshawn Lynch, Lamar Miller 9 Ahmad Bradshaw (8) Jimbot Ray Rice, Montee Ball 11 Note: It seems to be getting harder and harder to redefine "relevant backups" in an NFL where half the teams seem to be going to an RB committee. I have decided to put my foot down this year and only list a fantasy backup as "relevant" if they are a starter or in a committee of less than three. Ronnie Hillman, Vick Ballard, etc.--you may have an impact this year, but hell if I know how to estimate what it will be. And I certainly wouldn't want to hitch them horses to my draft wagon.
Starting off the team RB rankings is Master David with the formidable one-two punch of Adrian Peterson and Steven Ridley. I don't think much needs to be said about Peterson, but I am very intrigued with/impressed by the Ridley pick. Many publications seem to have him down around RB18 or so, but on my board he was the firmly planted at RB13. Any way you slice it, due to talent loss the Pats are going to have to do some running this year in excess of their historical trend, and Ridley is simply the best running back they have had on staff since Corey Dillon. And if he should falter, Dave has one of the most talented backup RBs on staff in Ryan Mathews, should be be able to stay healthy. Some might call that a long shot since Mathews had more broken collarbones than touchdowns in 2012, but after all, even Darren McFadden held it together for one season. And if HE should falter, Dave has a fourth option in Shane Vereen. Although far more intriguing in a PPR format, Vereen should see plenty of action all over the field and should produce yardage. And of course, there is the handcuff factor here too with Ridley, which was smart on Dave's part (Dave also managed to handcuff Peterson with Gerhart late in the draft).
Speed is the theme of Rich's backfield, which comes in at #2. LeSean McCoy is greased lightning and should thrive in a Chip Kelly offense which features a boatload of running plays and operates at the speed of thought, and Chris Johnson--who hasn't lost a step--should be back in business with a revamped offense and offensive line in Tennessee (he averaged 7.75 YPC in limited preseason action). For mop up duty Rich has Rashard Mendenhall available, who has looked decent in a Cardinals uniform. I wouldn't feel comfortable with Mendenhall as a starter, but he should be more than adequate as a bye week replacement. Rich also was able to secure Shonn Greene and Bryce Brown as handcuffs to Johnson and McCoy, although Brown is intriguing as a bye week replacement for Johnson in his own right. He may see 10+ carries a game in Philidelphia by virtue of the sheer amount of plays a Kelly offense runs per contest. Finally, Rich picked up Michael Bush late as a desperation option / possible trade bait.
Jason checks in at #3 with the backfield tandem of Jamaal Charles and Steven Jackson. Charles frankly shocked me when he came back from his ACL injury last year and continued where he left off. OK, so that's not totally fair--he was averaging 6.4 YPC in 2010 and post-injury just a paltry 5.3--and I guess what's amusing/unfair is that this comeback was completely overshadowed by AP's ridiculous season. I guess that's how a guy like Charles ends up being picked 6th overall and not 2nd or 3rd, which is where he deserved to be selected. With Jackson, Jason has a real wild card on his hands. For my money I think I'd rather have had Ridley with his young legs as this Jackson signing feels like trying to squeeze the last bit of juice out of the orange (an excellent analogy), but all the prognosticators expect rejuvenation in Atlanta by the way of increased chances in the red zone. That's hard to argue with as Jackson's best fantasy year was in 2006 when he was last part of a top-ten offense, but generally you don't see too many 30-year-old backs scoring double-digit touchdowns. Still, you can't argue with a lock for 1,000 yards and half-a-dozen scores as your RB2. There's really only upside here. In the realm of backups, Jason has Daryl Richardson who has secured the starting role in St. Louis and showed flashes of competence in 2012 before pooping his pants for the final 5 games (intrigue!), and then Jason has a giant dump heap of non-handcuff part-timers and backups in Pierre Thomas (part of the three-headed Saints monster), Mike Tolbert (who the heck knows), and Daniel Thomas (superfecta: split time, crappy Miami offense, fumbles, and concussions).
Vince is the only GM to have secured three legit starting fantasy RBs (as per his normal draft plan) in Trent Richardson, Frank Gore, and Reggie Bush, and secures the #4 RB ranking as a result. This is not a backfield that I would want for myself, but they should score points with Richardson as the fixture and Gore/Bush rotating in at RB2 on matchups. I guess I say that this is not a backfield I would want for myself mainly because I couldn't imagine drafting Richardson before folks like Charles and Rice, but I know what Vince and the rest of America are thinking here: Cleveland has an underrated offensive line, and three RBs under Norv Turner have won five rushing titles. But to that I would say that none of Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, or Ricky Williams had to play under the spectre of Cleveland, the most tortured sports city in America. Also, Norv sucks. But accounting for my biases against Cleveland and Norv, I opted to give Vince the benefit of the doubt and ranked T. Rich for the purpose of this analysis where the experts slot him, rather than where I slot him. I'm really just glad that I didn't have to mull over this selection myself at 1.8. Moving into RB2 land, I am not crazy about either Gore or Bush alone, but I like them a lot better together, aside from the fact that they share a bye. Gore is old and the SF backups proved themselves very competent last year pointing to signs of reduced workload, and Bush will be explosive, but only from time to time, since most of his yards will be had through the air. Good coaching will be Vince's key to success here. For backups beyond this things get dicey, but that's not unusual for RB4 territory and beyond. Fred Jackson won't contribute much unless Spiller gets hurt (then there is beasting potential, to be fair), Brandon Jackson isn't really T. Rich replacement material despite the handcuff, and Denard Robinson... well... I guess crazier things have happened.
Joe is ranked #5 with the combination of Alfred Morris and Maurice Jones-Drew. Morris is about as pure of a traditional-scoring fantasy back as they come, averaging over 20 carries and 100 yards per game with double-digit touchdowns in 2012 with virtually no ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Name me another starting RB who registered his first career NFL tackle before his first reception ... you can't! (His first reception came in game four and went for -4 yards, weee.) Still, when you put up 1600 yards in a season, who cares? In MJD you get a 28 year old back who despite having been abused over the last 4 seasons only appears to keep getting better (4.4 YPC in 2010, 4.7 in 2011, and 4.8 in 2012 before getting hurt). As for the hurt, word out of Jaguars camp is that MJD is showing no signs of problems resulting from last season's lisfranc injury. It appears there is still gas left in that tank, and I have no doubt the Jags are going to run MJD right into the ground, but still I think his effectiveness (fantasy potential) will be limited by a significant amount of 8-man fronts and a lack of red zone opportunities. Joe might have the option of going to Giovani Bernard in his place, however, especially later in the season. Although right now it appears that Bernard and Law Firm will split carries for the forseeable future, all signs point to Bernard being by far the more explosive back of the pair and also oddly, the goal line back (despite Law Firm's reputation of being a short yardage specialist, Bernard scored three 1-yard TDs in the preseason to BJGE's zero). Bernard is at worst a viable RB3 and at best a dangeous starter as the season progresses. As for other backups, Joe's love affair with Ben Tate continues as he stole the handcuff from Stevebot--a selection that never would have been allowed to happen in the presence of a human drafter, given Foster's apparent injury status. There could be fantasy gold here if Joe decides to hold rather than trade. Bilal Powell is talented and could easily contend for the starting job in NY, but the Jets are god-awful and it's still Ivory's job to lose. Joe also handcuffed MJD to Jordan Todman, although it is unclear who MJD's backup actually is (Robinson?). Knowshon Moreno is waiver bait.
Tom's wife rounds out the top half of the RB rankings at #6 by virtue of selecting my boy Muscle Hamster, known in some circles as Doug Martin. Consider what Doug Martin did last year in the absence of Tampa's two starting (all pro) guards, consider that Doug Martin had more yards after contact than any RB other than Adrian Peterson, and then consider why some people are actually questioning whether he is worthy of a top fantasy selection. The answer is that those people are dumb. Martin is going to have a huge year. Unfortunately, this will be offset for Tom by an absence of talent at the running back position when DeMarco Murray goes down with an injury. Seriously--not if, when. 2012: 13 games played (foot). 2011: 10 GP (ankle). College: (kneecap, hamstring). It's just a matter of time. I have been a Murray owner, and it is very frustrating. He is very talented, but he is also very unavailable. Sort of like my wife. Talented, very unavailable, and also frustrating. Just kidding honey, I love you. This hurts because wifey's rookie drafting left Tom with no legitimate backup options. Jonathan Dwyer (released), Danny Woodhead (San Diego committee), Zac Stacy (3rd on the Rams depth chart), Stepfan Taylor (currently competing for AZ RB2).
CJ Spiller and David Wilson could be the most underrated duo in this analysis, currently slotted at #7 under JV's command. I could very easily see myself looking back on this analysis and laughing when the season ends with Spiller rushing for 1900 yards and Wilson adding another 1500, with JV coasting to a championship. Of course, I could just as easily see a scenario in which Spiller suffers a life-ending injury in week 4 and Wilson fumbles his way back into the doghouse. Time will tell. I do like this backfield though--it is soaked with potential. It also helps JV considerably that Andre Brown (Wilson's backup, who JV also owns) broke his leg shortly after the draft, but for the purity of this analysis I cannot take that into consideration--in fact, I have to look at it quite the opposite. At the time of the draft it looked like Brown was going to seriously cut into Wilson's potential, which is really why I need to rate this duo #7 and not closer to 4 or 5. So yeah, I fully expect these RBs to outplay their ranking. But thems the breaks--it's a draft analysis. For backups, JV brings DeAngelo Williams to the table as his RB3. This is perhaps one of the more intriguing years to be a DeAngelo Williams owner, because Stewart is not supposed to be a factor. It actually appears that Williams will receive primary workhorse-type carries, and it will be interesting to see what he is able to do with them. He is 4 years removed from his last 1,000 yard season, but his YPC is still well over 4 and he is part of a legit offense. We could be in for a surprise here. JV is also the owner of Joique Bell, who for now is waiver trash but could be a decent bye week option should Bush go down.
Boris' duo of Matt Forte and Darren McFadden rings in at number 8. I am very excited to see what Forte can do this year with a revamped Bears line that has been pretty much terrible in recent years, and with Lovie Smith no longer calling the shots. There is plenty of noise suggesting that Forte will be going back to the focal point of the Bears offense, and that he will even be more involved in the passing game. Of course, the reality is that Forte failed to eclipse 1,000 yards twice in the last four seasons and hasn't shouldered more than 260 carries over that span, so it remains to be seen what he is truly capable of--but I like the pick a lot at 2.2. It's hard to believe, actually, that even a bot would have passed him up at 1.12 or 2.1, given the certain lack of RB talent at 3.12. Now McFadden... christ. Here's the thing about McFadden, really: when he is healthy, is is basically the league MVP. Bleacher Report actually did a study on this. Based on data since 2008, without McFadden, statistically the Raiders are a 4-win team. With him, they are a 9 or 10-win team and possibly playoff-bound. That kind of bounce from one player's involvement is essentially Peyton Manning territory. But alas, McFadden has never put together a 16-game campaign in that time frame. Or a 15-game campaign. Or 14. Nay, McFadden's best season was in 2010 when he blew us all away with a 1,157-yard campaign over a span of 13 games--one where he added an additional 507 yards receiving and a combined 10 touchdowns. Since... 2011: 7 games, 674 combined yards. 2010: 12 games, 771 combined yards. Darren McFadden just simply cannot stay healthy. His historical injury report is truly a sight to behold. He is practically undraftable. At least, undraftable as an RB2. If you're going to take McFadden as your RB2, you need a strong group of reserves. And to Boris' credit, at least he came through on that. Boris has both Law Firm and Le'veon Bell waiting in the wings when McFadden blows out a knee. That said, Law Firm is part of a Bengals committee and Bell has yet to prove he will be able to contribute in 2013, but I have to figure between the three of these guys (McFadden, Law Firm, Bell), that Boris will always be able to field a serviceable RB2. Other RBs on the roster include Jacquizz Rodgers and Mike Goodson, both of which are essentially waiver trash.
9 is where the wheels start to fall off the wagon, with teams starting to feature less than two full-time running backs. In this case, we have Marshawn Lynch and Lamar Miller, which is probably the tip of that iceberg. Now you gotta love Lynch (as a fantasy starter, maybe not so much as a citizen). He runs yard for big yardage on an old school team that's winning with defense and by pounding it down your throat. But then there's this Lamar Miller guy. All I can say about Lamar Miller is pretty much look... if the coaches are trying to give you the starting job on a silver platter and you still can't handily beat out Daniel Thomas, there's a problem there. I think--think--that Lamar Miller should end up getting the bulk of the carries at least to start the year, but it seems that this Daniel Thomas fellow just isn't going away, and it could spell bad news for Miller's fantasy effectiveness. Back in the summer people were wondering whether Miller would be this year's rags to riches, mid round fantasy goldmine, but it sure isn't trending that direction. And a split-carry situation would be extremely bad for GM Geoff, as he really has no serviceable backups. Ahmad Bradshaw (technically the Indy starter) and Mark Ingram are both going to be part of three-headed monsters in Indy and New Orleans, respectively, and Isaiah Pead and Roy Helu are both clear number twos in St. Louis and Washington. Geoff's best hope is that Ray Rice gets carted off the field so that Bernard Pierce can step in, who is absolutely the real deal.
#10 brings us to Stevebot, featuring Arian Foster and Darren Sproles. Being brutally honest, although this backfield contains brand names, it is highly suspect. Foster was picked way too early at 1.3 given his many and varied injury concerns, and frankly it just appears that he is flaming out; Foster's yards per carry numbers have taken a sharp downward turn since his stellar 2010 campaign, from 5.0 to 4.4 to 4.0 last season. That's a really concerning trend, and especially when there is a more than capable backup in Ben Tate waiting in the wings. I would expect Foster, injured or not, to surrender quite a few carries to Tate this year, limiting his fantasy value compared to years past. As for Sproles, this ain't no PPR rodeo. For as beastly as he is in that format, he is fairly pedestrian in standard scoring. This is no good for Steve, because Mmmm Bot decided not to draft any reasonable reserves. Hillman is listed as "relevant" simply because technically he is getting the start, but he is going to be part of a three-headed monster in Denver; Montee Ball will get plenty of carries, and Moreno is the third down back. Vick Ballard is more of the same (Ballard, Bradshaw, and Brown), and Robert Turbin has not yet won the backup job to Lynch in Seattle.
Jimbot, checking in at #11, apparently decided Ray Rice at 1.7 was enough to win the league, lit up a cigar, and took the rest of the draft off. When your RB2 isn't even a starter on his NFL team, you have got some problems. Montee Ball may be a fine keeper play (or not... some of us don't see him with NFL athleticism), but this is a redraft league and I wouldn't expect to see a rookie protecting Peyton Manning very much when there are other options that haven't displayed any sort of drop-off in ability. Backups are brutal: Mikel Leshoure (relegated to DET RB3), Jonathan Franklin (sucks), and Felix Jones (PIT RB4? c'mon man). This is going to be a poor-performing fantasy backfield.
After 3,758 words of running back analysis, we finally find ourselves at #12. If Jimbot's backfield is to be called bad, I lack words to describe Seanbot's. Personally I would not feel comfortable with Eddie Lacy as my RB2 unless maybe I had Adrian Peterson on staff, given that he is totally unproven and has been battling injuries through the preseason. But alas, Lacy is Sean's #1. And to make matters worse, he pairs him with Chris Ivory as his second starter, who is probably not going to make it very far into the season before being replaced by Bilal Powell, but not that it matters, because Jets. Sadly there are no other real options to roll out unless Le'veon Bell decides to stay injured for most of the year (which I guess is a possibility), but even then Isaac Redman hasn't really shown any ability to carry the load. Christine Michael is the only other back on this roster, and unless Lynch gets hurt there isn't much value to be had here. And even if he does, Michael will probably share carries with Turbin.
Wide Receivers
Presumed Starters Rank Relevant Backups (Rank) JV Antonio Brown, Torrey Smith 10 TY Hilton, Josh Gordon (6) Joe Wes Welker, Tavon Austin 12 DeAndre Hopkins, Kenbrell Thompkins (11) Vince Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson 11 Steve Johnson, Golden Tate (7) Boris Calvin Johnson, Eric Decker 2 James Jones, Emmanuel Sanders (8) Rich Roddy White, Randall Cobb 6 Dwayne Bowe (1) Jason Andre Johnson, Victor Cruz 4 Danny Amendola, Kenny Britt (2) Wifey Brandon Marshall, Pierre Garçon 8 Dave Demaryius Thomas, Steve Smith 5 Miles Austin, Alshon Jeffery (5) Stevebot Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson 7 Anquan Boldin (9) Seanbot AJ Green, Vincent Jackson 1 Cecil Shorts, Greg Jennings, Mike Williams, Lance Moore, Denarius Moore, two turtle doves, and a partridge in a pear tree (3) Geoffbot Dez Bryant, Marques Colston 3 Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Brown, Sidney Rice (4) Jimbot Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace 9 Chris Givens, Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline (10) Note: Similar to above, in a league that is becoming more and more pass-happy, it's getting harder and harder to rate a bench receiver as relevant. In this analysis, I have decided to omit anyone outside of my top 50.
After that RB section, are any of you still with me? I'm barely with me. I intended to bring up the QB value grid format here to simplify this section while still addressing every player involved, but then I realized that's really hard to do when you have 24 selections to analyze instead of just 12. And then I realized that WR value decreases so gosh darn linearly, trying to find value is really difficult, so I didn't want to go bananas on you like I traditionally do in the RB section. So in the end I decided that would just focus on the few players who I perceived to be out of place for where they were selected, both on the high and low ends. Which also, coincidentally, gave me an opportunity to rip on Joe in focused context. Win-win.
GM Selection Comments Great Value JV Torrey Smith (7.10) Smith was the #15 receiver on my draft board, and was the 26th receiver selected. He showed a complete game last year to complement his top-echelon speed. With Pitta out and Boldin gone, Smith is gonna get a lot more work. Good Value Rich Dwayne Bowe (5.8) Bowe was the #12 receiver on my draft board, and was the 18th receiver selected. He has put up solid (even sometimes monster) numbers living in QB purgatory, and now he has someone competent at the helm and a cupcake schedule to work with. Bad Value Joe Wes Welker (4.4) You don't pick a slot receiver--even when it's Peyton's slot receiver--when there are true WR1s left on the board who play with good QBs. Give me Cobb, Cruz, Colston, Smith, or Bowe here all day.
Tight Ends
Presumed Starters Rank Relevant Backups (Rank) JV Jimmy Graham 1 Joe Martellus Bennett 12 Vince Jason Witten 3 Brandon Myers (3) Boris Jared Cook 9 Rich Jermichael Finley 4 Fred Davis (1) Jason Antonio Gates 11 Coby Fleener (5) Wifey Vernon Davis 6 Dave Rob Gronkowski 2 Jordan Cameron (2) Stevebot Owen Daniels 10 Ed Dickson (6) Seanbot Tony Gonzalez 5 Geoffbot Greg Olsen 7 Jimbot Kyle Rudolph 8 Brandon Pettigrew (4) Note: Tight ends ranked outside of my top 30 omitted.
Not much that really needs to be said here, but I guess I will say it anyway. Because that's how I roll. Jimmy Graham is this year's consensus #1 TE--a luxury to be had for sure--especially when you consider the unknowns around Gronk's future. That said, in a standard scoring format, TE luxury really doesn't account for that much. The difference in 2012 between Jimmy Graham and guys like Greg Olsen, Owen Daniels, and Dennis Pitta was less than 45 points, and these guys were drafted in rounds 11, 12, and er... undrafted, respectively. In PPR this gap increases to the point where it can be considered more significant, but my point is that drafting a top TE in the second round is probably too aggressive for this league when there is other talent available. So with that in mind, let's go to the value grid to analyze the tight end selections:
GM Selection Comments Great Value Wifey Davis (7.2) Should see increased production with Crabtree out of the picture. Good Value Dave Gronk (4.12) Injury concern? Yup. But at pick 48, who can argue? If Gronk can stay healthy, he changes the fantasy landscape. Geoffbot Olsen (8.8) The 2012 #6 TE taken in the late 8th? Fortune smiles upon thee. Boris Cook (10.2) Love this pick. Cook comes out of QB purgatory and could be the TE steal of the draft. Gut feel, though... no body of work to rank higher than 9. Just Right Vince Witten (5.4) Led all TEs in receptions and yards in 2012. A few TDs away from overtaking Graham. Seanbot Gonzalez (5.12) One... more... year! Who can stop the Falcons O? Rich Finley (6.5) Word out of GB camp is that Finley is playing at a very high level in a contract year. Jimbot Rudolph (7.7) Underwhelming, but still a top-ten TE. Ponder has to throw to somebody. Jason Gates (8.7) He's a borderline fantasy starter these days, but that's what you get in the eighth round. Too Safe JV Graham (2.3) See paragraph above. Too Soon Stevebot Daniels (5.3) Before Witten and Gonzalez? No. Too Bad Joe Bennett (9.9) Bennett didn't even make my top-12 list of TEs. Cook would have been a steal here, and someone like Cameron or Fred Davis a better play.
Defenses/Special Teams
Defenses/Special Teams Rank JV Packers 8 Joe 49ers 2 Vince Texans 3 Boris Broncos, Buccaneers 9 Rich Ravens, Falcons 5 Jason Bengals, Dolphins 4 Wifey Bears, Patriots 6 Dave Chiefs, Cowboys 12 Stevebot Steelers, Rams 7 Seanbot Browns 11 Geoffbot Cardinals 10 Jimbot Seahawks, Giants 1 God dammit... I'm just too out of gas to write anything here. Jim and Joe and Vince have good defenses. Dave and Sean and Geoff have bad. Good beats bad. The end.
Final Quantitative Draft Analysis
Below you will find (finally) what you have been waiting for--the final numerical draft analysis!
As usual, unweighted average is just the mean of the five positional scores. Expected points takes into consideration positional weight, comparing rank against historical scoring and adjusting for quality of backups on bye weeks. No, I will not share the formula with you! Stop asking, you're embarassing yourself.
QB RB WR TE DEF Unweighted Average Expected Points Rank Dave 10 1 5 2 12 6.0 1345 1 Rich 12 2 6 4 5 5.8 1302 2 JV 4 7 10 1 8 6.0 1265 3 Jason 8 3 4 11 4 6.0 1229 4 Wifey 9 6 8 6 6 7.0 1213 5 Vince 7 4 11 3 3 5.6 1211 6 Joe 1 5 12 12 2 6.4 1188 7 Boris 6 8 2 9 9 6.8 1140 8 Jimbot 3 11 9 8 1 6.4 1107 9 Geoffbot 5 9 3 7 10 6.8 1089 10 Seanbot 2 12 1 5 11 6.2 1036 11 Stevebot 11 10 7 10 7 9.0 1008 12 For fun, let's use our divisional colors to see how this breaks down:
QB RB WR TE DEF Unweighted Average Expected Points Rank Dave 10 1 5 2 12 6.0 1345 1 Rich 12 2 6 4 5 5.8 1302 2 JV 4 7 10 1 8 6.0 1265 3 Jason 8 3 4 11 4 6.0 1229 4 Wifey 9 6 8 6 6 7.0 1213 5 Vince 7 4 11 3 3 5.6 1211 6 Joe 1 5 12 12 2 6.4 1188 7 Boris 6 8 2 9 9 6.8 1140 8 Jimbot 3 11 9 8 1 6.4 1107 9 Geoffbot 5 9 3 7 10 6.8 1089 10 Seanbot 2 12 1 5 11 6.2 1036 11 Stevebot 11 10 7 10 7 9.0 950 12 Seriously... look at that. It's almost broken down exclusively by divisional lines.
Observation 1: Division 2 is a powerhouse. Fear the D2.
Observation 2: Bots can't draft for crap. Good luck, bot division.
Divisional Predictions
This is the first year I put my army of data scientists to work on determining a probability of success rather than just slapping "Contender" or "Goat" next to the team. I feel that this is more reflective of fantasy reality, since injuries and trades and such are a factor. And by "army of data scientists," I mean yours truly with a bottle of bourbon. That's how the best things are invented.
Chance Coach Comments D1 Favorite 40% JV JV should win this division handily on the strength of a well-balanced team. I think only injuries can derail a playoff run. 25% Vince Outside shot or playoffs or wild card with good in-season management. Depth at all positions will help either weather the season or to consolidate talent. 25% Joe Joe is strong at key positions but is a mess at WR and TE. Will need to trade his way into contention, which for anyone else but Joe would spell doom. 10% Boris Not a bad team here, just lost in a sea of above-averageness. But if McFadden stays healthy and Calvin goes for 15+ TDs, there's a chance. D2 Favorite 40% Dave Setbacks to RGIII or Gronkowski could derail this run, but a similar strategy worked for Dave last year. Who am I to argue with his past success? 30% Rich Will be hard to knock off Dave unless the Seahawks take the reigns off Russell Wilson and he thrives. Expecting the wild card. 20% Jason Solid team wth no glaring weaknesses. Could rise to the division winner with a couple of good breaks, possibly served up by CINCY D. 10% Wifey No depth anywhere but QB is a bad way to start a fantasy season. Would have to have an epic, injury-free run to contend. Unlikely. D3 Playoff Fodder Pick'em 35% Jimbot There are no winners in D3--only survivors. I like Jim to win the bot division by a hair, but I wouldn't bet on it. Whoever wins D3 isn't going anywhere. 30% Geoffbot Maybe Thompkins is Randy Moss and Brady will put up 50 TDs again and make this team relevant. And maybe monkeys will fly out of my butt. 30% Seanbot For the second year in a row, Seanbot failed to draft any running backs. But Rodgers might win him some low-scoring division matchups by himself. 5% Stevebot Oh Stevebot. This team is so bad. Below average or worse at every position. Do not pass Go, do not collect any dollars.
Playoff Analysis
The Analysis projects that Dave (winner of D2) will play Geoff (winner of D3) in round 1, and that Dave will emerge victorious. By virtue of sheer points projected, the Draft Analysis predicts that Rich will take the wild card spot out of D2, pitting him against JV (winner of D1) in round 1. Looking at the week 15 schedules, it's frankly hard to pick Rich as the winner here. JV has Newton at NYJ, Spiller at JAC, and Torrey Smith at DET. Rich has very few favorable matchups, if any. That said, through the grace of God JV's whole team will choke or die and Rich will trounce him.
In round 2 of the playoffs, Rich will rip out Dave's heart and devour his soul, with his team winning easily by 50 or 60 points or something embarassing like that on the way to his fourth championship. Dave will weep, but not so much that he will be unable to see the glory of four championships.
Super Summary Section
Your team sucks. I win. Thanks for reading!
Sincerely,
Rich Fusinski
League Champion 1998, 2000, 2010, and probably 2013
Edgerrin James Award Winner 2001, 2004, 2008
Supreme Commissioner for Life
Editor-in-Chief
Destroyer of Worlds