2011 Draft Analysis

Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, 2012 Edition

2012. Twelve apostles. Twelve Olympians. Twelve signs of the zodiac. Twelve days of Christmas. Twelve imams. Twelve Great Feasts. Twelve months in a year. Twelve labors of Hercules. Twelve Angry Men. Twelve sons of Odin. Twelve Monkeys. D12. Twelve ounces in a troy pound. Twelve pence in a shilling. Bob Griese. Twelve cranial nerves and twelve pairs of ribs in the human body. Twelve men in a jury. Twelve sacred cushions. Twelve Federal Reserve districts. Twelve Knights of the Round Table. Twelve inches in a foot. Twelve step program. Twelve midnight.

Twelve draft analyses! Servin' up whoopins since 2001.

Twelve looks really funny after you write it 24 times (2 x twelve).

So welcome back, friends, to the 12th year of the draft analysis, where I get to dominate you all before football even starts. It's good to be the king!

It's hard to believe that I have been writing this article for twelve years, and that nobody has yet bestowed me with a Pulitzer Prize. Does no-one recognize my genius and/or dedication to the fine craft of draft-based fantasy prognostication? Someone should at least give me some money or something for doing all this work. Oh, wait. You have given me your money. Nevermind.

I guess then, welcome back to the 16th year of fantasy football! 50% of marriages are toast by year 16. If this league were one of Vince's students, we'd probably already be pregnant. So three cheers for sticking it out together this long, in spite of me beating you senseless.

Quarterbacks

Presumed Starter Rank Relevant Backups

Boris Philip Rivers 10 Andy Dalton

Joe Aaron Rodgers 1 Sam Bradford

Rich Cam Newton 3 Matt Ryan

Vince Joe Flacco 12 Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick

Jason Drew Brees 4 Andrew Luck

JV Matthew Stafford 5 Jay Cutler

Steve Michael Vick 8 Matt Schaub

Tom Tom Brady 2

Dave Ben Roethlisberger 11 Matt Cassel

Geoffbot Tony Romo 7

Jimbot Peyton Manning 9 Robert Griffin III

Seanbot Eeyore Manning 6 Josh Freeman

QB is interesting this year, I think, considering the way the league has been headed. 5,000 yards seems officially a run-of-the-mill number for the passing elite, and this can make a HUGE difference for one's fantasy team. Last season, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers all scored over 400 points, with Newton and Stafford trailing close behind at 396 and 385. The next tier of QBs were in the 300-330 range, meaning a difference of up to 8-10 fantasy points per week for the elite QB. Make no mistake, Stafford saved my season last year.

So, I think the real question is: Are we witnessing the start of a trend, or were we spolied by lockout ball where the defenses just never caught up? I believe the true answer lies somewhere in the middle, and I would expect a handful of QBs to flirt with 4,800 yards and 30+ TDs in 2012:

Rodgers: On another plane of existence with only 6 picks last year... 4 were tipped.

Brady: Addition of Lloyd to stacked group of receiving weapons is insane.

Brees: Yup.

Stafford: Lions can't run, apparently don't have to with Calvin Johnson.

Ryan: 2nd year Julio Jones should be a nightmare to contend with.

And of course there are a couple wild cards in there too:

Eeyore: 2011 a career high in pass attempts; He's got the talent, will Coughlin allow it?

Newton: Rushing TDs huge, but maybe not repeatable. Love the mix of talent though.

Personally, I would not be comfortable with anyone other than these 7 aforementioned guys as my starter. Nothing against Romo, but with Austin battling a hammy, Witten battling his spleen, and Dez Bryant battling civilization, it's real dicey. And nothing against Peyton, but medical fallout is a real concern. Vick is as explosive as they come but is an injury waiting to happen. Who knows what's wrong with Rivers? (Jason would suggest that he simply sucks and has always sucked.) And Big Ben and Flacco just never put up the numbers. Maybe one or more of these guys will still get it done, I don't know. But for perspective, the difference between a guy like Newton and a guy like Flacco last year was roughtly 150 points. Ouch.

Long story short, I think you gotta have an elite QB these days to make it to the promised land.

	Presumed Starter	Rank	Relevant Backups
Boris	Philip Rivers	10	Andy Dalton
Joe	Aaron Rodgers	1	Sam Bradford
Rich	Cam Newton	3	Matt Ryan
Vince	Joe Flacco	12	Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick
Jason	Drew Brees	4	Andrew Luck
JV	Matthew Stafford	5	Jay Cutler
Steve	Michael Vick	8	Matt Schaub
Tom	Tom Brady	2
Dave	Ben Roethlisberger	11	Matt Cassel
Geoffbot	Tony Romo	7
Jimbot	Peyton Manning	9	Robert Griffin III
Seanbot	Eeyore Manning	6	Josh Freeman

Running Backs

Presumed Starters Rank Relevant Backups

Boris Arian Foster, Beanie Wells 3 Mikel Leshoure?

Joe Reggie Bush, Stevan Ridley 12 DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Williams

Rich Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray 1 Jonathan Stewart

Vince Steven Jackson, Frank Gore 5 Trent Richardson

Jason Fred Jackson, Michael Turner 10 Law Firm, Cedric Benson

JV LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson 2 Shonn Greene

Steve Matt Forte, Darren Sproles 6 CJ Spiller

Tom Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw 11 Alfred Morris, Pierre Thomas

Dave Jamaal Charles, Mathews/Brown 4 McGahee, Hillis, Ingram, Mend'hall

Geoffbot Marshawn Lynch 9 Maurice Jones-Drew, Ben Tate

Jimbot Ray Rice, Isaac Redman 8 Possible Shanahan RB

Seanbot Chris Johnson, Michael Bush 7 Kevin Smith, David Wright

For the RB section of this analysis, I will continue the tradition of doing individual team position writeups despite the fact that the NFL is transitioning to a passing league. While the fantasy points gap at the QB position from 1 to 12 is actually larger, I still find RB the most fun for commentary.

#1 - Rich: To start, let me first say that this is the part of the draft analysis where I get a bit hypocritical, having harped on injuries a few paragraphs above but still ranking myself #1 overall for running backs with a couple of guys who stand virtually no chance at staying upright for a 16 game fantasy season. I'm justifying it in my head because RB is so weak this year, and there are injuries or other serious question marks in everyone's lineup so I don't feel compelled to take this into serious consideration. McFadden is probably the most dangerous runner in the game when he's healthy, but the guy has been a time bomb every year he's been in the league. Perhaps he's due this season, but I'm banking on him making it 12 games and producing Arian Foster-type numbers during that span. Before he got hurt last year, McFadden produced 765 yards and 5 TDs in less than seven games, so this is not just a pipe dream. Similarly, Murray has a history of injuries as well, but I am banking on 12 games out of him. The thing is, these guys are so talented it's just worth the dice roll. Hopefully when they are healthy they lead me to wins, and you gotta get wins to make the playoffs where anything can happen. Rounding out the all-injury backfield is J Stewart, who promptly got hurt about two hours after the draft, blowing the over-under out of the water which was set at 37 minutes. Hopefully he will be healthy enough for spot duty, because he's really good when he's not dead.

#2 - JV: LeSean McCoy and AP. McCoy continues to boggle my mind as a way more productive runner than I believe he has any right to be, but I guess that's just a feature of the Andy Reid offense. I still prefer Arian Foster and Ray Rice over this dude, but he is undeniable as a top 3 fantasy back. Freshly-activated Adrian Peterson is a wild card coming off an ACL, but the guy is a freak of nature and I have to believe he's ready to go. The question is will the Vikings baby him a bit with a healthy dose of Gerhart for a while, reducing his fantasy value? I'd guess the answer is yes, but this will still be a solid fantasy backfield. Shonn Greene is terrible, but he could stand to produce 10+ points in bye week pinch until they replace him with Tebow.

#3 - Boris. This is an interesting backfield having the clear #1 RB in Arian Foster, but then also a likely 50/50 timeshare guy. Beanie Wells was an excellent value pick last season, but with a healthy Ryan Williams I expect his carries to be cut in half from the 2011 numbers. Mikel Leshoure is as interesting of a backup as any, as nobody has any clue what's actually there in terms of talent, health, workload, etc. The Lions backfield is a disaster--that's the only thing that is known--and maybe this ends up resulting in 200 carries for Leshoure. Maybe it ends up resulting in 20. At press time, the Lions were thought to be in the market for a running back, so this may cloud the situation even further. At any rate, Steve proved last season that you do not need a legit #2 RB to win a championship, so maybe half a Beanie Wells will be good enough.

# 4 - Dave. Dave's backfield has almost as much upside as my own, with virtually the same amount of injury risk in a reconstructed Jamaal Charles and a perennially broken Ryan Mathews who gives McFadden a run for his money in the Lead China Cup department. These guys are extremely talented runners, but I do not give them the nod over my own because they are on the mend while mine enter the season 100% healthy. Where Dave does shine, however, is in his bench which is crazy deep--but unfortunately you can only play two guys at a time. That said, Dave is pretty much bulletproof at this position, which absolutely nobody else in the league can say. I predict some trades brewing here in the future where Dave will consolidate talent and drastically improve his starting lineup, quite likely in the QB department.

#5 - Vince. Dude is rolling out a couple of old men in Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. I like one of these old men, but do not like the other. I'll give you a hint: the one I like is Jackson, who shows no signs of slowing down at 29, and who was supposed to be threatened by Isaiah Pead this year... but it turned out that Pead sucks. So I expect another 15-1600 total yard, 6 TD performance out of Jackson, especially in an auto mechanic offense. As for Frank Gore, I fear a bad outcome may be brewing. He significantly slowed down in the second half of 2011, averaging only 53 yards per game over the final 8 weeks. So while Gore may come out of the gate firing on all cylinders, I fear age may catch up with him during the season and his days of fantasy domination will end. My guess is that Vince is going to be turning to T-Rich at some point this season as the better RB2 option, but I do not really know what to expect from this guy. Cleveland is just not good right now, but I think they're going to have to try and pound it. I suspect mid-level RB2 value here, which is good enough.

#6 - Steve. This ranking even surprises me because looking at the names it seems like they should be ranked higher... but I am worried about a drop-off in production with both Forte and Sproles. In Forte's case, perhaps the most revealing problem is the addition of Michael Bush, and the obviousness of how they intend to use him as seen in the preseason. Essentially, once that ball is inside the red zone and it's a running down, it's Bush time. That significantly decreases Forte's value and kind of dooms him to the low TD numbers he has experienced in his entire career. But maybe more worrisome is that we have not yet witnessed the full extent to which the Bears intend to utilize Bush. OC Mike Tice has gone on record stating that he's after two 1,000 yard rushers, which would significantly cut into Forte's touches by historical standards. As for Sproles, let's get real--he had 7 receiving TDs last year, which will be hard to replicate. If that number drops to around 4--which I think it will--Sproles' fantasy output becomes fairly pedestrian. In the land of backups, I wouldn't expect a lot out of CJ Spiller but he's one Fred Jackson injury away from becoming very relevant. Unfortunately, the offense just isn't high powered enough for him to make much of an impact under any other scenario.

#7 - Seanbot. Chris Johnson looked like he might be back in Preseason week 2 when he had a couple nice runs, but overall his preseason body of work looks pretty shoddy, averaging under 3 yards per carry. Maybe we'll see the lightning-in-a-bottle CJ2K again this year and I'll be proven silly, but I think the smart money's on CJ1K. Based on attempts alone, I have to believe he will still be a fantasy factor, but he's outside the upper echelon. Fantasy backfield compatriot Michael Bush should get a lot of touchdowns, and plenty of opportunities to carry the rock in a balanced Bears offense where he figures to steal carries from Forte on running downs. As for backup Kevin Smiff, who knows what to expect here. Based on what we saw last season, if healthy and given a chance there may be some big games in this guy, but my guess is that there are going to be really bad games intermingled with the good ones. Honestly, I think the best thing that could happen to Sean's RB situation is if Ahmad Bradshaw loses his job to David Wright, who happens to be sitting on Sean's bench.

#8 - Jimbot. Love Ray Rice and not much needs to be said about him--he's one of the most productive players in the NFL right now--but I hate Isaac Redman. Some people in this league have been trying to convince me that Redman is good--better than Mendenhall. To that I say, "Well why the hell could he never beat him out?" Players often look better than they are in spot duty, but when given too big of a work load get exposed. Couple that with the fact that he's entering the season with both hip and ankle injuries, and it's clear he's just on borrowed time until Mendenhall gets healthy. When that happens, Jim better hope that the Shanahans keep playing RB rope-a-dope and end up starting one of Jim's two Washington backs. Unfortunately, at press time it looks like Alfred Morris is the guy. Jim currently has nowhere else to turn at the position to fill his RB2 spot. Thankfully, Ray Rice will cover up a lot of flaws.

#9 - Geoffbot. This team has Marshawn Lynch, and at press time... nobody else, because Geoffbot thought it would be cool to draft MJD in the first round, yet not bother with a backup solution in case the holdout persists. Frankly, if I were Geoff, I'd be on the phone right now trying to negotiate a three-way deal between Boris and Tom involving Ben Tate, Rashad Jennings and LeGarrette Blount. Because while Geoffbot really fubar'd his RB situation, these guys ALL botched and scalped each others' backup RBs. It can be corrected, people. Unfortunately, without MJD in action or his backup on staff, and in conjunction with no other backups on this team, I am forced to rank Geoff dead last in this portion of the analysis. The sad part is that with an active MJD, this would be a top-5 backfield, and only my belief that the holdout will eventually end is keeping Geoffbot out of the RB ranking basement. I'm assuming MJD plays 10 games.

#10 - Jason. I do not care for the Bills or much for Fred Jackson. Jackson is 31 years old, and he will surrender carries to Spiller. Probably not enough to turn Spiller into anything of significance as indicated previously, but enough to reduce Jackson's effectiveness in terms of fantasy points and desirability as a RB1. Word out of Falcons camp is that Turner is supposed to see a reduced workload this season--that they are going to try to use Jacquizz Rodgers in more of a Darren Sproles role. But of course, Darren Sproleses are hard to come by and there is no real indication that this is more than lip service. More importantly is that Turner's talents seem to be in decline. He has averaged just 2.7 YPC in the preseason, and some analysts have suggested he may be entering the LenWhale White phase of his career, which would not be good for Mr. Jason. Even if none of this is true, what is clear is that the Falcons are transitioning to a passing team, so the carries aren't going to be there regardless. Jason has a lot of depth at the position in Green-Ellis and Benson which he may be able to consolidate into better RB talent, but time will have to tell. Traditionally, Jason has not been very active in fantasy trading. Also, it's possible that one of these guys may replace either Jackson or Turner as a fantasy starter at some point. Green-Ellis may be, for instance, better than I am giving him credit for, having been stuck in a passing offense for the past several years. It will be interesting to watch.

#11 - Tom. This backfield comes in at #9 and I am upset at this ranking because of my man crush on Doug Martin, but I do not like Ahmad Bradshaw and I have been burned by the Shanahans enough to know that this whole Alfred Morris thing may just be a fad. But starting with Martin, I am convinced that this guy is the next Ray Rice. He was an absolute steal in the 4th round and my intention was to grab him there myself, but the opportunity to select Cam Newton in the 3rd, which I didn't think was going to be feasible, significantly altered my strategy and I missed out on the chance to draft him. That said, he IS a rookie and rookies typically don't set the world on fire, so I am tempering my expecations for him this season. Hence, the ranking here at 9. As for my feelings on Bradshaw, see the Seanbot writeup above. There are no indications that Bradshaw is in any danger of losing his job to Wright, but he has only topped 180 carries once in his career so I expect him to share the load. And unlike a McFadden who has experienced similar bad luck, Bradshaw just isn't that good to begin with.

#12 - Joe. Is there a worse 1-2 combo in the league than Reggie Bush and Stevan Ridley? Say what you want about Bush's 2011 5.0 YPC--he only had 216 carries which it largely irrelevant. There is also talk about getting Daniel Thomas more early-down carries, which would be very bad for Bush owners. Also, the Dolphins should be worse in 2012 than they were last season, as Tannehill has looked awful in the preseason and this offense is just going to sputter and die all year long. I honestly don't view Bush as anything better as a low-end RB2 or a really solid RB3. As for Ridley, frankly the Patriots top back never lights the world on fire except in rare exceptions, and I wouldn't expect Ridley to finish as anything higher than a serviceable RB2. Ridley would be much more attractive in a different offense. But for Joe, this leaves him at a distinct disadvantage at the position. DeAngelo Williams is intriguing as a potential starter if something should happen to Stewart to keep him out of action longer-term, and Ryan Williams is intriguing as a starter if something should happen to Beanie Wells. So maybe Joe finds himself with a better backfield than he had intended, should the injury cards fall in his favor. But for now, it's basically junk.

	Presumed Starters	Rank	Relevant Backups
Boris	Arian Foster, Beanie Wells	3	Mikel Leshoure?
Joe	Reggie Bush, Stevan Ridley	12	DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Williams
Rich	Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray	1	Jonathan Stewart
Vince	Steven Jackson, Frank Gore	5	Trent Richardson
Jason	Fred Jackson, Michael Turner	10	Law Firm, Cedric Benson
JV	LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson	2	Shonn Greene
Steve	Matt Forte, Darren Sproles	6	CJ Spiller
Tom	Doug Martin, Ahmad Bradshaw	11	Alfred Morris, Pierre Thomas
Dave	Jamaal Charles, Mathews/Brown	4	McGahee, Hillis, Ingram, Mend'hall
Geoffbot	Marshawn Lynch	9	Maurice Jones-Drew, Ben Tate
Jimbot	Ray Rice, Isaac Redman	8	Possible Shanahan RB
Seanbot	Chris Johnson, Michael Bush	7	Kevin Smith, David Wright

Wide Receivers

Presumed Starters Rank Relevant Backups

Boris Greg Jennings, Wes Welker 10 Antonio Brown

Joe Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne 11 Titus Young

Rich Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker 7 Torrey Smith, Kenny Britt

Vince Julio Jones, Stevie Johnson 5 Mario Manningham

Jason Hakeem Nicks, Demaryius Thomas 6 Pierre Garcon, Santonio Holmes

JV Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson 12 Heyward-Bey, Crabtree, et al

Steve Andre Johnson, Jeremy Maclin 4 Mike Williams, Rrrrrandy Moss

Tom Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe 9 Justin Blackmon, et al

Dave Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant 1 Jon Baldwin

Geoffbot Roddy White, Victor Cruz 8 More than you can shake a stick at

Jimbot AJ Green, Steve Smith 3 Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore

Seanbot Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace 2 Brandon Lloyd, Miles Austin

This is the portion of the draft analysis where ranking stop being as meaningful. Frankly, you should not pay particular attention to the rankings after, say, #3, because as a fer-instance I would expect the difference between Vince's WRs and Tom's WRs to be something on the order of 20 points for the whole season. That's just how above-average receiver parity washes out in terms of fantasy impact. If this league ever goes PPR we will see more separation.

So unless your name is Dave, you may as well just move on. But Dave really does have the potential for something special here between Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant. This combo could threaten 400 fantasy points for the year, which frankly is more than I expect out of almost everybody's running back duos. This is of course dependent on Dez staying out of trouble, but the potential is there for him to have a monster season.

A few other thoughts:

I think Julio Jones finishes the year as a top-5 fantasy receiver, if not #2. It's too bad he's paired with Stevie Johnson who is battling a groin injury and not another top talent, or Vince might have joined Dave in fielding a game-changing WR duo.

Geoff needs to consider trading Roddy White to fill the RB void created by Geoffbot. He has many talented reserves not mentioned above, including: Vincent Jackson, Robert Meachem, Denarius Moore, Malcolm Floyd, Nate Washington, and Sidney Rice.

Has DeSean Jackson been on JV's team every year?

Eric Decker: 3rd year WR looking great paired with Manning, and coming off a 44-catch, 8 touchdown (?!) season. Fraud, or Marvin Harrison?

I think Welker is very overrated this year in non-PPR with the addition of Brandon Lloyd.

	Presumed Starters	Rank	Relevant Backups
Boris	Greg Jennings, Wes Welker	10	Antonio Brown
Joe	Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne	11	Titus Young
Rich	Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker	7	Torrey Smith, Kenny Britt
Vince	Julio Jones, Stevie Johnson	5	Mario Manningham
Jason	Hakeem Nicks, Demaryius Thomas	6	Pierre Garcon, Santonio Holmes
JV	Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson	12	Heyward-Bey, Crabtree, et al
Steve	Andre Johnson, Jeremy Maclin	4	Mike Williams, Rrrrrandy Moss
Tom	Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe	9	Justin Blackmon, et al
Dave	Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant	1	Jon Baldwin
Geoffbot	Roddy White, Victor Cruz	8	More than you can shake a stick at
Jimbot	AJ Green, Steve Smith	3	Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore
Seanbot	Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace	2	Brandon Lloyd, Miles Austin

Tight Ends

Presumed Starter Rank Relevant Backups

Boris Jermichael Finley 5 Owen Daniels

Joe Rob Gronkowski 1 Kellen Winslow

Rich Greg Olsen 11 Jacob Tamme

Vince Aaron Hernandez 5 Brent Celek

Jason Tony Gonzalez 6 Jermaine Gresham

JV Vernon Davis 4

Steve Antonio Gates 3 Scott Chandler

Tom Jimmy Graham 2

Dave Jason Witten 8 Dustin Keller

Geoffbot Fred Davis 10

Jimbot Brandon Pettigrew 9

Seanbot Jared Cook 12 Martellus Bennett

2011 presented us with a ton of turnover at the TE position in terms of fantasy impact. Gronk and Graham have positioned themselves on top of the heap, then there is a tier of relatively similar players who should produce in the 120-point range, and then there is crap.

Thoughts:

Graham and Gronkowski went 19th and 20th overall, respectively, in this year's draft. Last year: 95 and 103. I'm hoping to find a value play in Tamme or Olsen that yields even 60% of that type out output, but not holding my breath. Last season, I thought Graham's ascension was obvious. This season, I don't see a play like that. There probably isn't one.

Antonio Gates is thought to be 100% heading into this season, and with no Vincent Jackson to steal targets could be in for a vintage-type performance.

Nobody drafted Coby Fleener, but at press time he was picked up by the Houston Auilers. I would think there would have to be some potential here, even though Luck has been very WR-focused in preseason.

	Presumed Starter	Rank	Relevant Backups
Boris	Jermichael Finley	5	Owen Daniels
Joe	Rob Gronkowski	1	Kellen Winslow
Rich	Greg Olsen	11	Jacob Tamme
Vince	Aaron Hernandez	5	Brent Celek
Jason	Tony Gonzalez	6	Jermaine Gresham
JV	Vernon Davis	4
Steve	Antonio Gates	3	Scott Chandler
Tom	Jimmy Graham	2
Dave	Jason Witten	8	Dustin Keller
Geoffbot	Fred Davis	10
Jimbot	Brandon Pettigrew	9
Seanbot	Jared Cook	12	Martellus Bennett

Defenses/Special Teams

Defenses/Special Teams Rank

Boris Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots 9

Joe San Francisco 49ers 2

Rich Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs 5

Vince Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions 1

Jason New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals 11

JV Denver Broncos 3

Steve Green Bay Packers, New York Giants 7

Tom Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears 4

Dave Buffalo Bills, Cincinnatti Bengals 8

Geoffbot St. Louis Rams 12

Jimbot Houston Texans 6

Seanbot Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins 10

I decided to stop using presumed starters for defense rankings, because most players--even the ones with elite-level defenses--use D/STs situationally, sometimes with great results. Therefore, I figured it makes more sense going forward to do defense rankings as a unit.

Thoughts:

Vince is stacked. Eagles are my top defense this year, and having the ability to go Ravens or Lions as suited is absurd. Trade bait, anyone?

49ers only have a couple of games where I'd be afraid to roll them out there as my fantasy defense, and I'm not going to penalize Joe for being able to play them for 14 weeks. Same goes for JV and the Broncos.

How far the mighty Rex Ryan Jets defense has fallen! I guess that's what happens when your offense can't stay on the field.

	Defenses/Special Teams	Rank
Boris	Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots	9
Joe	San Francisco 49ers	2
Rich	Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs	5
Vince	Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions	1
Jason	New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals	11
JV	Denver Broncos	3
Steve	Green Bay Packers, New York Giants	7
Tom	Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears	4
Dave	Buffalo Bills, Cincinnatti Bengals	8
Geoffbot	St. Louis Rams	12
Jimbot	Houston Texans	6
Seanbot	Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins	10

Final Quantitative Draft Analysis

Unweighted average is just the mean of the five positional scores. Expected points takes into consideration positional weight, comparing rank against historical scoring and adjusting for quality of backups for bye weeks. No, I will not share the formula with you. It's the secret sauce, brotha!

QB RB WR TE DEF Unweighted Average Expected Points Rank

Rich 3 1 7 11 5 5.4 1397 1

JV 5 2 12 4 3 5.2 1370 2

Tom 2 11 9 2 4 5.6 1343 3

Joe 1 12 11 1 2 5.4 1316 4

Dave 11 4 1 8 8 6.4 1289 5

Vince 12 5 5 6 1 5.8 1262 6

Steve 8 6 4 3 7 5.6 1235 7

Jason 4 10 6 7 11 7.6 1208 8

Seanbot 6 7 2 12 10 7.4 1181 9

Jimbot 9 8 3 9 6 7.0 1154 10

Boris 10 3 10 5 9 7.4 1128 11

Geoffbot 7 9 8 10 12 9.2 1097 12

	QB	RB	WR	TE	DEF	Unweighted Average	Expected Points	Rank
Rich	3	1	7	11	5	5.4	1397	1
JV	5	2	12	4	3	5.2	1370	2
Tom	2	11	9	2	4	5.6	1343	3
Joe	1	12	11	1	2	5.4	1316	4
Dave	11	4	1	8	8	6.4	1289	5
Vince	12	5	5	6	1	5.8	1262	6
Steve	8	6	4	3	7	5.6	1235	7
Jason	4	10	6	7	11	7.6	1208	8
Seanbot	6	7	2	12	10	7.4	1181	9
Jimbot	9	8	3	9	6	7.0	1154	10
Boris	10	3	10	5	9	7.4	1128	11
Geoffbot	7	9	8	10	12	9.2	1097	12

Divisional Predictions

Division 1 The Favorite Rich Deceptively strong at QB. RB injury history is fantasy Russian Roulette, but talent is undeniable. TE is a concern, but can be shored up in-season.

The Contender Joe RBs are terrible, but Rodgers and Gronkowski will win Joe games by themselves. Defense is another strong spot. WRs are serviceable.

The Dark Horse Vince Vince is above average at every position but QB, where unfortunately he is dead last. This will hurt bad unless it is dealt with via trade.

The Pretender Boris This team looks better on paper than it will perform in real life. Other than with Foster, I expect too much inconsistency from this team to contend.

Division 2 The Favorite JV Strong all around. Decent depth at key positions. WRs could be better than expected. JV trying to prove you can win with Vernon Davis.

The Contender Tom RB2 a concern, but Steve proved last year you don't need one to win if you're strong elsewhere. QB and TE will score points, and Martin could grow up fast.

The Dark Horse Steve Vick hasn't looked good of late even when healthy, and Schaub's upside is limited by the offense. Could still contend under the right circumstances.

The Pretender Jason Brees will contend for the points title, but RBs are old and WRs are not spectacular. Too many question marks + too much division fire power = bad news.

Division 3 The Favorite Dave Practically anyone outside of this division could win it, and Dave's team is solid. I would expect no less than a 5-1 division record and an easy playoff bid.

The Dark Horse Seanbot There is some sneakiness to this team, and will surprise opponents occasionally, but not enough talent to overpower Dave unless planets align.

The Pretender Jimbot Jimbot is below average at every position except WR, where it doesn't really have that large of an effect. Needs to find an RB2, which won't be easy.

The Goat Geoffbot Fortunes could change significantly if MJD reports and doesn't fall victim to the missed camp injury bug, but it looks like this is gonna drag out a while.

Final Thoughts

D1 and D2 should be real dog fights, but the relative weakness of D3 means that the the wild card should go to Tom or Joe. But as per usual, you should now be convinced that these types of paltry hand-outs are largely irrelevant as I have the best team and will win yet another annual league title.

Sincerely,

Rich Fusinski
League Champion 1998, 2000, 2010
Edgerrin James Award Winner 2001, 2004, 2006
Editor-in-Chief
Destroyer of Worlds

Division 1	The Favorite	Rich	Deceptively strong at QB. RB injury history is fantasy Russian Roulette, but talent is undeniable. TE is a concern, but can be shored up in-season.
	The Contender	Joe	RBs are terrible, but Rodgers and Gronkowski will win Joe games by themselves. Defense is another strong spot. WRs are serviceable.
	The Dark Horse	Vince	Vince is above average at every position but QB, where unfortunately he is dead last. This will hurt bad unless it is dealt with via trade.
	The Pretender	Boris	This team looks better on paper than it will perform in real life. Other than with Foster, I expect too much inconsistency from this team to contend.
Division 2	The Favorite	JV	Strong all around. Decent depth at key positions. WRs could be better than expected. JV trying to prove you can win with Vernon Davis.
	The Contender	Tom	RB2 a concern, but Steve proved last year you don't need one to win if you're strong elsewhere. QB and TE will score points, and Martin could grow up fast.
	The Dark Horse	Steve	Vick hasn't looked good of late even when healthy, and Schaub's upside is limited by the offense. Could still contend under the right circumstances.
	The Pretender	Jason	Brees will contend for the points title, but RBs are old and WRs are not spectacular. Too many question marks + too much division fire power = bad news.
Division 3	The Favorite	Dave	Practically anyone outside of this division could win it, and Dave's team is solid. I would expect no less than a 5-1 division record and an easy playoff bid.
	The Dark Horse	Seanbot	There is some sneakiness to this team, and will surprise opponents occasionally, but not enough talent to overpower Dave unless planets align.
	The Pretender	Jimbot	Jimbot is below average at every position except WR, where it doesn't really have that large of an effect. Needs to find an RB2, which won't be easy.
	The Goat	Geoffbot	Fortunes could change significantly if MJD reports and doesn't fall victim to the missed camp injury bug, but it looks like this is gonna drag out a while.