Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, 2011: 100% Correct Edition
Welcome back to another year of fantasy football, and more importantly to the 11th anniversary of the most anticipated publication of the year, the Draft Analysis. Available as usual in good old fashioned HTML, like mom used to make, before all you kids started walking around with your damn iPads and whatsits and app stores. Now get the hell off my lawn.
The eleventh year! My sweet Lord. Did you know that the Return of the JV Insider lasted just one season? I have probably averaged twenty hours a year writing this thing over the last eleven years, meaning I have spent over nine says of my life entertaining you all with my fantasy football prognostocations. And speaking of prognostications, did you know that, according to spiritual numerology, 11 is known as the psychics number? The most intuitive of all numbers representing illumination and deep insight? It's true, and let me tell you: this analysis is chock-full of deep insight. Therefore, even moreso than in prior years, this document represents completely accurate information and its projections are infallible. So those of you who have been marked to miss the playoffs may as well not even bother setting your lineups. It is written in the stars.
Quarterbacks
Presumed Starter Rank Backups Boris Manning 6 Campbell Joe Rivers 5 McNabb JV Dog Killer 1 Fitzpatrick, Young Vince Romo 7 Kolb Dave Flacco 11 Cutler Jason Rodgers 2 Orton Rich Ryan 9 Stafford Steve Brees 4 Cassel Geoff Schaub 10 Dirty Sanchez Jimbot Brady 3 Freeman, Garrard Sean Big Ben 8 Bradford Tom Eeyore 12 Hasselbeck The Dog Killer was not the first QB drafted, but he is the most high-powered QB in this year's class and JV was lucky to get him at 1-10. Many publications actually advocated for Vick to be the number one fantasy pick overall because of his scoring projection over 16 games (which are indeed astronomical, more on that in a second). Now this guy here doesn't think Vick will make it through a full 16 game schedule without getting dinged up, but I definitely get taking that risk once all the top RBs are off the board.
Jason took Rodgers at 1-8 over the likes of Vick and RB Jones-Drew, of which only one is somewhat surprising as Vick does not meet Jason's character clause. I think anyone else in the league takes Vick over Rodgers, but who am I to judge a man for sticking to his principles? Well, actually I'm a winner and I judge all you assholes, so why the hell wouldn't I do that here? The truth is that Vick is far and away a better fantasy asset than Rodgers, and here's why: Vick over 11 games last year at 27 points per game vs. Rodgers over 15 games at 19.5. Yup, Vick scored more points than Rodgers in 3 less games. That means if you get 12 weeks out of Vick and toss in a lame backup for 5, you're doing better than if you have Rodgers healthy and active all year. That isn't to say Rodgers is anything less than an excellent fantasy QB, it's just that Vick is on his own planet. Jason made the wrong decision here. There's no fantasy trophy for most principled GM.
I would say the next 3 QBs are very close and the final projections do take this into consideration, so I wouldn't put much stock in whether you are ranked 3, 4, or 5 here. Brady vs. Brees or Rivers is essentially a tossup, although slim margins do win games and if you held my feet to the fire I'm taking them in that order. Of course, the real story here is not how different 3 through 5 are, but rather 3 through 8 or 9. Is Brady, Brees, or Rivers in rounds two and three going to really offer you enough to justify not holding out for Roethlisberger (6-6) or Ryan (6-7)? I would argue that either of these guys could throw for 4000 and 30, and that in general QBs are deeper than they have been in years. Hell, would you be surprised to see Flacco (9-3) threaten 4000 and 30? Or Stafford if he stays healthy? I wouldn't. When you start getting down into Eli territory I will concede that the depth is over, but I wouldn't mind having 10 or 11 of the projected starters above on my team.
Long story short: QBs late this year get a little dicey, but QBs early were a worse play, unless that QB was Vick. Too bad that was the last smart decision JV made all draft.
Running Backs
Presumed Starters Rank Backups Boris McCoy, Blount 8 Torain, Harrison, D.Brown Joe CJ2K, Forte 2 Tolbert, Ringer, Forsett, Snelling JV Wells, Addai 12 Stewart, Green-Ellis, Spiller, R.Brown Vince Greene, Lynch 11 Jacobs, R.Bush, Carter, Barber, Hardesty, Murray Dave Rice, D.Williams 6 F.Jackson, Helu, Goodson Jason S.Jackson, Benson 10 Hightower, M.Bush, T.Jones, Dixon, Graham Rich Mendenhall, McFadden 1 F.Jones, Redman Steve Foster, Hillis 5 Starks, Jennings, Sproles Geoff Turner, Moreno 9 Matthews, D.Thomas Jimbot Peterson, Ingram 4 P.Thomas, Tomlinson Sean Jones-Drew, Gore 3 Best, Grant, R.Williams Tom Charles, Bradshaw 7 Woodhead, Tate, McGahee The RB section is where I always have the most fun, and this year's crop presented some interesting challenges to fantasy footballers. Without question, prior to the draft the top five RBs were Adrian Peterson, 2010 rushing champion Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, and Chris Johnson (in no particular order). However, some of these top five picks are actually wrought with peril. Consider that Arian Foster has been bothered by a hamstring injury for a month, and that Chris Johnson's holdout has persisted much longer than anyone would have thought with only a rumored end in sight. Keep in mind as well that holdouts and injuries are highly correlated. At what point do you start considering solid, 2nd tier RBs like Mendenhell and McCoy? Apparently if you're most people, never. But anyway, I'll stop here because I don't want to divulge too much of the meat of this section before we get into team by team analysis. Let's get this party started.
Best RB crop: Here's a shocker... according to my own evaluations, it's me! Mendenhall and McFadden make for the best one-two punch this year, and Felix Jones is available for byes and injury spot work. Mendenhall, in my mind, was the surest 1st round bet after Charles, Rice, and Peterson went off the board. Honest to goodness, I would have picked him over CJ2K if he somehow fell to me at 1-7. Yeah, he isn't even in the same league as Johnson, and doesn't have some of the guys drafted behind him, but Mendenhall is a dying breed--a three-down RB on a great offense who also gets all of the goal line work. Tough to find. I like Mendenhall mostly for that reason alone, but also because he has the support of a great defense which should provide field position all year long. McFadden, on the other hand, is an explosive compliment, albeit a brittle one. I would not take McFadden as my workhorse due to injury history, but he is a perfect risk/reward type of player to gamble on if you already have your horse stabled. For the 12 games he'll play this year, I expect top-5ish production. As for the other 4 games and Mendenhall's bye, I expect Felix Jones to fill in nicely. In fact, I expect Felix Jones to perform like a top-15 RB. With Barber gone his ceiling is just super-high.
Coming in at #2 is Joe with Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. Johnson is my top rated RB and a ridiculous value at 1-5, but only if he plays. Personally, my stance on this sort of draft choice is that you rarely win any leagues in round one, but you can often lose them. I myself would not have made this selection despite his ranking on my board, but this could obviously be a tremendous coup for Joe if Johnson ends his holdout and manages to stay healthy. In the interest of staying fair and balanced, I projected CJ2K out to roughly 75% of last year's production (which makes him still more valuable than most RBs), but this could range in actuality from 0 to 125%. As for Forte, I was recently speaking with JV who believes he's in for a bust-type season, and I could not disagree with that more. If McFadden was gone at 2-6, Forte was my target. He's not flashy, but he is reliable and in an offense that features him as their focal point. Granted the signing of Barber could mean vultured goal line work, but it's not easy to find a back in the 2nd round who could threaten 300 touches and projects to 1600 combined yards. As for backups here, not much to write home about. The San Diego staff is said to love them some Tolbert, but in a part-time capacity. He'll be fine in a pinch but Joe cannot sustain injury at this position and hope to compete without hitting the trade block.
Sean rolls out the all-aging squad at #3 with the combination of Jones-Drew and Frank Gore. The mileage these guys both have on them rivals that of the rusting Durango in my dad's driveway, but much like the Durango the engine is still a v8 and it will continue to haul ass over the short term. MJD is really the biggest question mark here, as there is little doubt in my mind that Gore will continue to perform in an offense that needs to feed him like crazy. MJD coming off a down year and a subsequent knee surgery does not give me the warm fuzzies, but I think the worst case scenario here is that he is Steven Jackson. You know, 1200 rushing, 300 receiving, and 8-10 scores. If MJD does falter, however, Sean can go in a couple different directions with Best and Grant on the bench. Best is seriously intriguing if he can stay healthy, even if his rushing ability is limited. For instance, it's easy to imagine Reggie Bush circa 2006-type numbers for Best without straining your brain too much. Grant has a lot of things working against him in Green Bay considering they won a Super Bowl without him, but I expect split time with Starks at a minimum with the edge going to Grant. Lots of depth in this unit.
Peterson and Ingram is perhaps the most intriguing backfield assembled this season. We all know what Peterson brings to the table and it would surprise no-one if he finished as the #1 RB overall, but the real wildcard here is the rookie Ingram. I would be intrigued enough in this guy to grab him as an RB3, but as an RB2 I am not so sure. Ingram is already battling a sore knee in the preseason, and he still has Pierre Thomas to contend with who ain't no slouch. What's going to be interesting to see play out is how these two Saints end up splitting carries. My guess is that Ingram is going to get the majority of the goal line work making him the more valuable fantasy option, but how many yards is Thomas going to vulture away? I would venture: enough to be annoying, but not enough to make Ingram perform worse than a top-20 back. Maybe the most bizarre thing about this is if Ingram gets hurt, Jim's backfield might perform better.
Steve drafted Arian Foster at 1-2 and it boggles my mind. Here's a guy who hurt his hammy early in the preseason, rested, and re-injured it again about a week ago... and he still gets drafted #2 in front of guys like a healthy Jamaal Charles. Why? As you can probably tell, I have serious doubts about Foster this year. Not enough that I am going to completely write off his season, but enough that I think Steve has, best case, two Peyton Hillises (who, for the record, I expect to be not as good as 2010 Peyton Hillis but still good enough to generate more points than most RB tandems). If Foster can stay healthy enough to get through the season I have to believe it won't be at full speed--I would expect he becomes a low RB1 rather than the world beater that took IHOP to the championship last season. And I gotta think that if you grab Foster in round 1 that you make it a priority to grab Tate later, but Steve let Tom get his hands on him. Not a fan of what went down here, but Hillis is a strong RB2 and there are just too many questions in the rest of the league to rate Steve's backfield any lower than 5.
As President of the Ray Rice Fan Club it pains me to say that Dave should have drafted Jamaal Charles at 1-3, but in general anyone should feel lucky to have this guy on their team. With Willis McGahee gone to Denver, Rice should see his higher touchdown total return along with his top-10 RB status (perhaps top 5). The only thing not to like about Rice is that he has to face the Steelers defense twice, but Dave can go to Fred Jackson in a pinch should he so choose. As for Dave's other RB DeAngelo Williams, I can't say I am a fan of this pick. His talent is undeniable, but John Fox and his running game brilliance is gone to Denver and Cam Newton is at the Carolina helm--you have to expect that Williams, coming off an injury, is going to see 8 in the box all game, every game. Throw into the mix that it's still looking like a split-carry situation with Jonathan Stewart, and it doesn't really spell good times for Williams (or for Dave).
Tom decided to put Jamaal Charles in charge with the fourth overall pick in the draft, which has gotta be the best scenario he could have hoped for given the status of both Foster and Johnson. This guy has a legitimate shot to run his way to the 2011 rushing title, and with Thomas Jones not getting any younger, Charles should pay off handsomely for Tom. Unfortunately, I don't think he's going to get an up-tick in production from Bradshaw but rather the opposite. It sounds like the Giants are targeting Jacobs for equal time in 2011 as opposed to the 2:1 ratio that Bradshaw owners enjoyed last year. Tom's backups are interesting, however. If Arian Foster really does suffer a season filled with injuries, Tate at 11-4 could be a blockbuster selection. And is McGahee who everyone is basically writing off going to end up the Denver version of Jonathan Stewart, now that Fox is calling the shots? Possibly. Definitely worth a shot. As for Woodhead, I actually like him a lot as an NFL fan and he will probably steal enough carries away from Green-Ellis to make JV insane. What's particularly interesting here is that Belicheck tipped his hand, I believe, against the Lions that if the Patriots get behind, Woodhead becomes the primary back. Of course this doesn't give Tom a ton of fire power by any means, but I think he has a better stable of backups here than what it looks like at first glance.
When I first looked at Boris' backfield I thought I would end up rating them a lot higher than I did, but after really looking at the situations in Philly and Tampa Bay I decided against that. I think McCoy has some serious talent and he catches the hell out of the football, but the presence of Ronnie Brown frightened the heck out of me as a prospective fantasy owner. Maybe I'm looking at this too much through I've-always-been-a-fan-of-Ronnie-Brown's-work-colored glasses, but I think if I'm Andy Reid and I have some serious RB talent outside of McCoy, I'm gonna find a way to use it. As for Blount, my expecations for the kind of year he might have were recently tempered by the fact that he couldn't secure the 3rd down work that Tampa tried to hand him. This still leaves room for Blount to emerge as a Michael-Turner-type back, but Turner is a pretty unique talent and I would rather not jump to conclusions here. As far as the guys riding the pine, according to current NFL depth charts I don't see a lot of help here. It looks like Torain has been moved to RB3 in Washington, and Harrison, while being probably one Jahvid Best concussion away from relevancy, is currently not going to provide much help.
There's too much risk in Geoff's backfield for me to rank him any higher than he is. I love Turner--sat on him in the keeper league for a couple years when he was behind LT because I knew he was gonna be a star--but he's almost 30 years old and really slowed down toward the end of last year, battling a groin injury that limited him to just 3.6 yards per carry over the last six games. It seems like father time is catching up to this guy, and even if he manages to avoid the injury bug this season it is apparent that he does not have the speed he did even just two years ago. As for Moreno, let me just say this: The Broncos coaching staff had so much confidence in this guy that they got in a public bidding war for DeAngelo Williams. Couple that with the fact that the guy can't stay out of the trainer's room and I would be shocked if Moreno has the kind of production some pundits are projecting him to have in the John Fox offense. Geoff may have to go to Ryan Matthews early if the Moreno experiment doesn't work out, and we have really yet to see what this kid is really capable of. I think he will get the chance in San Diego to show his stuff and often, but I am not feeling the "breakout candidate" vibe that's out there until he shows me something (and failing your conditioning test in camp wasn't a great way to do that). Daniel Thomas at 8-1 could be the real coup in this draft if it turns out that the kid lives up to the hype, but sadly it doesn't look like Thomas' career is headed that direction. Word out of Miami is that Thomas has lost Sparano's confidence, and frankly he has been putting up exceptionally poor numbers in the preseason as well (see: 7-16 vs. Tampa Bay in week 3 against the 2nd string defense). Of course, if this is the case you may as well write of the Fish entirely because Reggie Bush sucks ass between the tackles.
The one thing that Jason has going for him in terms of his RBs is that they will get a shit-ton of carries. Steven Jackson, despite the wear on his tires, is still an every-down back. He's part of that dying breed I was referring to earlier when talking about Mendenhall, except S-Jax doesn't exactly have youth on his side anymore--despite being 28 years old, only three active RBs have more carries and they're all of the semi-broken variety (LT, Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams). I gotta think Jackson has one more season left in the tank, but these guys do tend to fall off the fantasy cliff rather fast. Jason is gambling that this happens in 2012, and it's a reasonable gamble given that Jackson was acquired at 2-16. I think it is reasonable to project Jackson out at 1500 total yards this year, but as we are all aware, Jackson doesn't do double-digit touchdowns. Moving on to Cedric Benson, let me first say that I have no idea how he ended up on Jason's team considering he is currently serving a 7-day prison sentence for assault. That said, despite the fact that Benson is on what will quite possibly be the worst team in football not named the Panthers, I think he will still put up reasonable RB2 numbers. I figure that he will get 25 carries a game out of necessity, and even if that only yields 75 yards total, I think Jason will take that given his selection at 5-9. But really where I think the value is in this backfield is in Tim Hightower (6-4), but I think Jason is too stubborn to start him out of the gate so I refuse to give him any analysis points for his "blind squirrel" draft choice.
Vince's backfield is highly questionable. I have no doubt that Rex Ryan is going to try to give Shonn Greene a huge workload in New York, but I just don't think he has the talent to capitalize on it after watching him intently last year. But no, I'm not bitter that Greene was my 2nd round bust. Images of Leroy Hoard dance in my head. In all fairness I think I would roll the dice again on Greene as an RB2, but definitely would not make him the cornerstone of my backfield--no way. As for Lynch, ugh. Was Beast Mode ever actually a thing? This guy is slower than JV and can't make anyone miss, nevermind the fact that Tavaris Jackson fightens no-one. If I was a gambling man, I would say that Delone Carter will be a starter for Vince by mid-season when Addai goes down, because Donald Brown blows. And there's a real chance that Vince will be stuffing Jacobs into his starting lineup before then out of desperation because Lynch is unplayable.
I think JV believes he is going to start Green-Ellis and Stewart in week 1 given where he drafted them, but I don't think he realizes that Wells is going to end up his go-to workhorse. If you can call a RB3-type bye week replacement player a workhorse, anyway. Truthfully, but I'm not a fan of any of these turkeys given how JV intends to use them. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is about as overrated as a player gets this year and I expect Belicheck to spread it around better than John Stockton. If there ever was a bust candidate, it's Law Firm. Patriot backs Ridley and Vereen are better runners than this guy, and Woodhead is going to steal the passing down work and more. TRBL. As for Stewart, see: Cam Newton sucks, 8 in the box. Addai is a serviceable fantasy back when he's healthy, but he will probably be dead by week 7. The rest of JV's clowns aren't worth talking about for starting work. JV is in trouble.
Wide Receivers
Presumed Starters Rank Backups Boris Jennings, Rice 10 Burress, Evans, Crabtree Joe Britt, Marshall 8 Burleson, Amendola JV C.Johnson, D.Jackson 2 Knox, R.Williams, Meachem Vince A.Johnson, Nicks 1 Bess, Breaston Dave V.Jackson, M.Williams 3 Lloyd, Collie, Floyd Jason Austin, Boldin 9 Ward, Driver Rich Wallace, Holmes 5 Manningham, Ford, Little Steve Colston, Maclin 12 Harvin, James Jones Geoff White, S.Johnson 7 Real Steve Smith, Thomas, Nelson, Brown Jimbot Bowe, Jones 11 Moss, Moore, Simpson Sean Wayne, Bryant 6 Green, Edwards Tom Fitzgerald, Welker 4 Ocho, Garcon, Sims-Walker Vince... listen to me now and believe me later: You cannot take back to back receivers and follow it up with a TE in round three and a QB in round four. There's a recipe that contains those ingredients. It's named "getting your ass kicked all year." First of all, something like only 5% of all WRs who score double-digit touchdowns repeat the following year, so you've got that working against you. But even more simple is the fact that WRs simply just don't score as many points as RBs. Top WR last year: Brandon Lloyd at 203 points (note: BRANDON LLOYD! Not Andre Johnson. Not Larry Fitzgerald. Not Calvin Johnson. Not Roddy White. Brandon Lloyd). Matt Forte in 2010: 203 points. You could have had him over Nicks, who scored 165 in a marquee year. Stop the madness.
JV: See above. Look, I like Calvin as much as the next guy, and your receivers look fearsome on paper but Lord have mercy. I love you guys for leaving me running backs in round 2. Disregard my note above about stopping the madness. Please do this again next year.
As for the rest of yous, good job. Except for you, Steve. Mediocre job.
Now as for evaluating receivers, I need to get away from the shit-ton of detail that I put in the last analysis because these bastards are just too damn inconsistent and I don't have the time this year. But I will say a few things:
1. Check out Joe's receivers, it's the all-rehabilitation club. Britt is a fool but a ridiculous talent. will he make it through the season without being suspended? Marshall has a personality disorder and might off himself before fantasy playoffs come around, but showed flashes of what he's capable of in the last few weeks of 2010 even which a shitty-ass quarterback throwing ducks all over the place. Is there a bigger potential value in this year's draft at 7-5? Maybe Hightower at 6-4 but I was amazed to see Marshall drop as far as he did. This unit could be Joe's achilles heel, but as I expect it will perform and perform well, in relation to where Joe picked these guys up in the draft.
2. I do not believe in Steve Johnson. I may be wrong. I may have underestimated Geoff's unit here. I would not be the first person to underestimate Geoff's unit. But I do not trust this guy to repeat last year's success with Evans gone to Baltimore and taking on constant double-teams.
3. Jim took Julio Jones way too early. Kids, don't buy into the rookie wideout hype--the chances of him being the next Randy Moss are very slim. You probably have a better shot of finding the next Anquan Boldin in round 17 by accident.
4. Based on what I've seen in the preseason, Vincent Jackson might end up the #1 wideout overall. Especially if Gates continues to struggle with his health.
Tight Ends
Presumed Starters Rank Backups Boris Daniels 6 Cooley Joe Lewis 9 Keller JV Gonzalez 11 Vince Witten 5 Dave Finley 2 Watson Jason Clark 4 Heap Rich Gronkowski 8 Hernandez Steve Graham 7 Moeaki Geoff Gates 1 Z.Miller Jimbot Winslow 9 Olsen Sean Pettigrew 12 Gresham Tom Davis 3 Celek More or less the usual suspects here. Couple of comments:
1. Graham perhaps the biggest sleeper here with the chance to leap into the top 5, especially with how Brees is targeting him in preseason.
2. Pettigrew possibly grossly underrated at #12 but I'm worried about all the weapons that the Lions have to spread the ball around to--I see last season as sort of best-case scenario.
Defenses/Special Teams
Presumed Starter Rank Backups Boris Jets 3 Vikings Joe Steelers 1 49ers JV Browns 12 Vince Eagles 4 Dave Chargers 11 Rams Jason Bears 7 Rich Lions 8 Cowboys, Patriots Steve Ravens 5 Giants Geoff Saints 6 Jimbot Falcons 9 Raiders Sean Dolphins 10 Chiefs Tom Packers 2 Bills Gonna stick with the high points here.
1. Nod to the Steelers as the surest thing in fantasy defense again this year. Pundits like to point out that this is the oldest defense ever assembled (average player age), but the depth on this team is always astounding. Best chance to land at #1 defense again in 2011.
2. Browns defense?
3. Lions defense faces Cutler twice and McNabb twice, Alex Smith, Cam Newton, and Jason Campbell. Surprise fantasy defense of the year? Maybe.
4. Eagles defense possibly underrated at #4, but my guess is they won't lead the league in time of possession.
Final Quantitative Draft Analysis
Unweighted average is just the mean of the five positional scores. Expected points takes into consideration positional weight, comparing rank against historical scoring and adjusting for quality of backups for bye weeks.
QB RB WR TE DEF Unweighted Average Expected Points Rank Joe 5 2 8 9 1 5.0 1377 1 Tom 12 7 4 3 2 5.6 1327 2 Rich 9 1 5 8 8 6.2 1304 3 Dave 11 6 3 2 11 6.6 1252 4 Jimbot 2 4 11 9 9 7.0 1237 5 Jason 3 10 9 4 7 6.6 1223 6 Boris 6 8 10 6 3 6.6 1210 7 Vince T-7 11 1 5 4 5.6 1199 8 Sean T-7 3 6 12 10 7.6 1187 9 Steve 4 5 12 7 5 6.6 1177 10 Geoff 10 9 7 1 6 6.6 1165 11 JV 1 12 2 11 12 7.6 1118 12
Divisional Predictions
Division 1 The Favorite Joe Strongest team on paper. Definite favorite unless CJ2K holds out for duration, but Joe will trade himself out of the hole. Deceptively strong WRs. Rivers, Steelers D tough. The Dark Horse Boris Will not be easy for normals to defeat. Weak in the right positions at WR2 and TE. Manning will likely start slow which may hurt more than expected. The Pretender Vince WR/WR strategy has been tried many times and proven unreliable. RBs are too weak. Witten overrated with Romo back at the Dallas helm. The Goat JV Terrible everywhere but QB and WR. RBs exceptionally weak and even getting 100% out of Vick can't make up for the lack of firepower here. Where's the defense? Division 2 The Favorite Rich Three legit starters at RB. Both QBs posturing for breakout years. WRs above average. TE and Defense questionable but should perform reasonably well. The Contender Dave DeAngelo Williams biggest question mark, but solid elsewhere. Flacco will yield fantasy points despite comparative ranking. WRs and TE are very strong. The Dark Horse Jason Rodgers could end up #1 QB. RB Jackson has lots of wear and Cincy (Benson) unimpressive, but both may yet produce. WRs are underrated. Solid at TE/Defense. The Pretender Steve Many questions around Foster's health. WRs overrated and Hillis doubtful to repeat. Brees solid and TE could surprise, but no shot at division given the competition. Division 3 The Favorite Tom Eli the biggest weakness but QB is deep in general. Bradshaw as a part-timer may hurt, but Charles could end up #1 overal. WR/TE solid and Defense excellent. The Contender Jim Brady/Peterson will be great. If Ingram performs, this team may impress. WRs are weak, however. Bowe will not repeat, Jones a rookie. TE/Defense are just OK. The Dark Horse Sean Too many old men on this team which might be the achilles heel. Will suffer from inconsistency but score a lot of points at times. Not enough star power at any position, I believe, to make a run. The Pretender Geoff Turner 29 and coming off surgery. Moreno will lose reps to McGahee. Gates won't play all 16 games. Stevie Johnson in a bigger role on a bad offense. Roddy White can't save this team.
Final Thoughts
Joe got the fear of God in him after only not dropping out of D1 due to a technicality and decided to perform this year in the draft to avoid further ridicule; he should win the division handily.
Rich and Tom are the favorites to win D2 and D3, but there is some potential for bloodbath here--the upper-middle competition is strong (Dave and Jim in particular) and could yield close races.
I like the the wild card to go to Boris if he can take advantage of weak divisional competition from Vince and JV, but Jim is a strong contender also with his QB and RB depth. Tough to call.
Championship Prediction: I will beat Joe by 1 point in the last minute of the fourth quarter of the week 16 Monday Night Football game to win back-to-back titles. Joe will cry openly, and we will all question his manhood. And we will laugh. And you will all bask in the glory of my 4th fantasy title.
Finally, RIP Tom "Killer" Kowalski, the best Lions beat writer this town may ever know. May the hololulu blue and silver win an assload of games and break a few quarterbacks in half in his honor.