Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, 2010 Edition
Welcome back to another year of fantasy football, and more importantly to another riveting edition of the draft analysis. Can you believe that the analysis has been published for 10 straight years? Newsweek ain't even around anymore, but I'm still trucking. Take that, Washington Post.
Did you know that the traditional 10-year anniversary gift is something made of tin or aluminum? Go ahead and give your wife an empty beer can in a few years--surely she will be impressed with your knowledge of tradition. You can thank me later. In the meantime, put on your tin foil hats and enjoy the Tin Anniversary Edition of Rich's Draft Analysis, where I will rip your drafts to shreds and crown myself champion. Why do you people even read this thing?
Last-minute editor's note: I would like to apologize for the length of the analysis this year. I really went bananas and that was not my original intention. I guess I just felt like writing.
Quarterbacks
Presumed Starter Rank Backups Boris Ryan Garrard Joe Rodgers Anderson, Sanchez JV P.Manning Vince Flacco Kolb Dave Brees Eli Manning Jason Palmer Hasselbeck Joe Sr. Cutler Henne, Smith Steve Favre Campbell Geoff Romo Young Jim Brady Stafford Rich Rivers Rapistberger, Cassel Tom Schaub McNabb Rodgers outscored Brees by a ton of points last year, but let's not get carried away. His 300+ rushing yards are sure to dwindle as he ages, and he faces a much tougher schedule this season. I think it's safe to say that this makes Brees his equal, and these two gentlemen stand on a tier of their own in the fantasy world with Manning a close #3. Although Captain Consistency is always near the top in QB scoring, he has not been #1 for quite a few seasons and may not be available for week 16 when you could need him the most.
Tier two starts with Brady--it kind of makes me ill that some fantasy publications are ranking this guy any lower than 4. Brady is one year removed from knee surgery, and two from a 50-touchdown season. Granted it's a safe assumption that 50 isn't going to happen again, but 30 should be the number on everyone's mind. This team still has Randy Moss and an apparently healthy Wes Welker, and still no running game to speak of. After Brady, you've gotta like what Romo brings to the table. He was the #2 fantasy QB in '07, had a fantastic 2009, and it's possible with the addition of Dez Bryant that he is gonna sling it this year more than ever. Finally, rounding out tier 2 is Matt Schaub. He is extremely talented and has a great group of receivers in Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter (go EMU!), and Owen Wilson. If Schaub can stay healthy, there's smart money on him duplicating last year's effort and taking the yardage crown. However, that's the rub... Schaub has built a reputation of being a glass cannon, and although he is a fantasy beast that inherent risk lands him beneath his peers. For you MBAs in the group, see: expected value.
To me, tier 3 is basically Rivers and nobody else. If Vincent Jackson wasn't suspended/holding out he'd belong in tier 2 just beneath Schaub, but alas that is not the case. Many pundits expect Rivers to throw less because of this, but it is equally possible that he will throw more with a rookie RB in the house, albeit with less consistency. Still, after Rivers you are looking at far greater unknowns. Rivers is where the safe QB picks end.
Tier 4 is where things get interesting. Here you've got an ancient Favre coming off his best season ever but with Rice out for at least 8 games, Cutler operating in a Mike Martz offense, an unknown commodity in Kevin Kolb, and Joe Flacco who started last season on FIRE and burned out almost just as fast, but now with upgraded receivers. My favorite of this group is Flacco. I think the guy is eventually going be a stud, and top ten this year seems like a shoo-in. An awesome running game certainly doesn't hurt anything, either--Flacco has a lot of things going for him. Next in line is Cutler. OK, so the guy throws a ton of picks... he also throws the ball more than just about anyone, and throws for touchdowns, too. Wouldn't be surprised to see 28 and 20 this year, with 4500 yards. He is going to lose you some games for sure, but win you a few by himself as well in that offense. The Bears receivers have a ton of speed, and should help maximize Cutler's value with all the deep routes Martz likes to run. After Cutler, I think this is where you start talking about Grandpa Favre. To expect the kind of results he produced in 2009 seems silly, but even though the old man is already getting ankle injections without taking a regular season snap, it doesn't change the fact that when you bet against Brett Favre you usually lose. I still expect him to put up competitive numbers, certainly with less yards and maybe double interceptions, but competitive just the same.
Tier 5 starts with Matt Ryan and ends with Carson Palmer. Bluntly, I don't like either of these guys as my starting QB. Ryan went into a sophomore slump last year and his upside is capped by a run-heavy offense. Breaking the 3500 yard barried seems unlikely, and more than 25+ touchdowns a pipe dream. Palmer has a bit more upside than this, but I am ranking him #12 because he played all 16 games last year and his performance was uninspiring. The addition of T.O. should help, but I think we can go ahead and bury Carson Palmer of old that we last saw in 2007. I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish the season outside of the top 15 QBs. Personally, if I drafted either one of these guys as my starter I would have grabbed Big Ben immediately thereafter under the assumption that he would be my starter by week 6.
Running Backs
Presumed Starters Rank Backups Boris D.Williams, McCoy R.Bush, Tomlinson Joe Benson, Best Jacobs, Fred Taylor JV Gore, Wells Addai, M.Bush, McFadden, Ringer Vince Steven Jackson, Forte Tom Jones, Cadillac, K.Smith, L.Johnson Dave Mendenhall, R.Brown Portis, Hardesty, J.Jones Jason Matthews, Barber Forsett, Bradshaw, D.Brown Joe Sr. Jones-Drew, Charles F.Jackson, Lynch, Washington, Parker Steve Peterson, Ricky Williams F.Jones, Sproles, Westbrook Geoff Turner, Grant Harrison, Slaton, Moore, Scott Jim Thomas, Stewart Maroney, C.Taylor Rich Rice, Greene Foster, McGahee Tom Chris Johnson, Moreno Spiller, Hightower Alright kids, hunker down with a cup of coffee or a beer and prepare yourself for the extra-long running back section of the analysis. I always like to put the meat of the article here since this is where money is made and lost, and this year is no exception as I've got a doozy for ya--after two years of business school I write considerably faster and you, dear reader, are the benefactor of this wonderful education and its halo effect on my communication skills.
Brace yourself, because I am about to say something crazy: I am a big fan of Mr. McHugh's backfield. I shied away from Jones-Drew at pick #3 only because of the rumors swirling around his knee, but when healthy MJD is the better back. If the rumors are overblown MJD will get his 15 touchdowns and finish a top-5 back as he did last year, and my assumption is that he will be fine until I hear definitively otherwise. Obviously if he falls apart that would kill this team, but you've gotta roll with the information you've got at draft analysis press time. As for Charles, what can I say? I love this dude... he was #11 on my RB board right after Shonn Greene. Thomas Jones is a red herring--he is not getting any younger and Charles has massacred his production in the preseason. It hasn't even been close. The guy could be a 2000 total yard threat if given the opportunity and his body holds up. As for the reserves, Fred Jackson is going to do plenty of damage when he returns. There is a lot of hype around Spiller but Jackson is still the guy. Worst case scenario they go into a split-carry situation, where Jackson will still have plenty of value.
But surprise, surprise! I like my running backs better than anyone else's. Ray Rice is a stud, and although he gets carries and touchdowns vultured by other capable Baltimore RBs, his total yardage is fantastic. Last season Rice had just 9 touchdowns, but still ended up one of fantasy's top backs and I can't imagine a world where he would have less TDs. He is as close as you're going to get outside of AP and CJ for a lock as a top-5 RB, and that's why he merits the #3 choice. The addition of Boldin should help clear the path as well. As for Greene, it is my belief that he is the next Michael Turner as they have very similar games. Ohhh but what about LT? Shut up, fool. LT is gonna get some carries for sure, but here's the deal, yo... regardless of what you think about LT, the Jets ran the ball 607 times last year. Greene is a virtual lock for 300 carries since that trend is no doubt going to continue due to Sanchez's suckitude. Filling in as either trade bait or bye week all-star is Arian Foster. Sleeper city here, baby... he might even end up a top-15 back. Foster is a fantastic inside runner, and lit up the fantasy world at the end of last season when he got his chance to play. Foster is easily one of the top 2 or 3 RB reserves on anyone's roster.
Tom probably assumed he was going to get Adrian Peterson at #2, but ended up with Chris Johnson in his lap. I'm not sure how he feels about that, but personally I would have been thrilled. I think CJ2K is a shoo-in for another great year. Although he got a ton of carries last season, there isn't a lot of wear on those tires in general and the guy simply doesn't take the same punishment as other RBs. I'll get into the CJ/AP debate a little bit further down in Steve's section, but for now I will say I think CJ was the clear #1 and that Tom got a bit of a gift here. Now that said, I don't like Tom's other RBs at all, but if you have the #1 RB you can screw around a lot with your RB2 and still be OK. Tom's gonna have to hope that Spiller ends up living up to the hype for the first few weeks, as Moreno does not look anywhere close to returning from injury, and backs with bad wheels going into the season rarely work out. As for Hightower, the pundits tell me that will be relegated to 3rd down back. Not a lot of value here, especially without Leinart's every-down check-downs.
Michael Turner, what have thee left in the tank? After a dominating 2007 campaign, Turner couldn't get healthy last year. The scary part is that he still put up decent numbers under those conditions, but he was a very frustrating start for fantasy owners since you never knew what you were going to get. Turner could be a steal as the draft's eighth pick or a total bust. Sometimes these guys just can't get healthy once they get older and the injury bug hits. Geoff is hoping that he returns to form, and who am I to root against the guy? I like him, and would have taken the chance myself. Maybe not over the likes of Frank Gore who dropped WAY too low (more on that later), but Turner is not a bad pick--and especially not with Ryan Grant bringing up the rear. Grant has been solid for a couple seasons now and there's no reason to believe that trend won't continue. He's not a sexy pick, but he's provided a consistent 1200+ yards on the ground and increased his TD total to 11 last year in a much improved offense. Harrison as Geoff's RB3 is a fairly solid late-round choice. Many people think Hardesty is going to steal the majority of carries in Cleveland, but I don't see that happening as split time is the more likely scenario, with Hardesty playing second fiddle. Post-draft update: Hardesty injured his knee in the fourth preseason game, and the news coming out of Cleveland is a torn ACL. This makes Harrison an even more valuable fantasy option.
Steve shocked the world by picking Adrian Peterson #1 overall in lieu of returning 2,000 yard rusher Chris Johnson. Smart or crazy? You decide. People love to talk about the "Curse of 370" be they rushing attempts or "touches"--that having a season like this ruins a running back's NFL career--so let me take a moment to point out the humorous hypocracy of this pick in particular: Peterson had 384 touches in 2008. Alright alright, "Whatever," you say. I think we all suspect that Chris Johnson is not going to rush for 2,000 yards again this year, so unless you believe he is going to implode you probably can't go wrong either way. Johnson is #1 and Peterson is "1A." These guys should lead all running backs in points this year. Take who you like. Steve's real problem is Ricky Williams as his RB2. I think he's gotta pray for another Ronnie Brown season-ending injury or that Felix Jones finally turns into the guy that he was supposed to become like two seasons ago. And what is with the lack of a Toby Gerhart handcuff here? Steve, go spend a free agent move on some insurance and get rid of Westbrook. The guy is practically dead.
Let me start by saying that Frank Gore at 12 was probably the steal of the draft. There was a part of me that actually wanted to take him at 3. I mean, come on guys... Gore ran for 1100 yards last year at 4.9 YPC, added 400 yards receiving and racked up 13 touchdowns. Do you really see those numbers going down, on a team boasting one of the league's best defenses? You cats is crazy, and JV is the beneficiary of your craziness. Later in the draft JV added both Beanie Wells and Addai, and either one of these guys could start. I don't particularly love Addai or Wells, but they are both legitimate RB2s and although there's a lack of star power there, you gotta love that kind of depth. Additionally, drafting the Raiders backfield provides JV even more depth, and possible trade bait. If either Bush or McFadden finally pan out, Addai or either of these guys could be moved to shore up a rough roster spot. Post-draft update: The broken thumb that Bush suffered prior to our draft has proved to be more serious than initially reported, requiring surgery and a longer return to the field for Bush than anticipated. This hurts, as Bush has proven to be the more talented of the two backs and it remains to be seen if McFadden can stay healthy or even has NFL-caliber talent.
Rashard Mendenhall did not get the love in our draft that I think he deserves. I was thinking going into the draft that this guy was 11th or 12th pick material, but Dave was able to scoop him up 4-5 picks later at 16 behind Fitzgerald and DeAngelo Williams which I find interesting. You've got to figure that the Steelers are going to run like crazy at least up to the bye when Ben comes back, and this doesn't even account for the fact that Mendenhall is one of a small set of RBs who are every-down guys. DeAngelo Williams certainly cannot claim this with Stewart hanging around, and the pick of Fitzgerald over Mendenhall I think is particularly egregious. But more on that later. Behind Mendenhall Dave has Ronnie Brown. Man, I love me some Ronnie Brown... if only the dude could stay healthy for one goddamn season. For that reason I just can't rank this backfield as high as I would like, and especially not with Portis as the answer. Can't imagine Portis being very good this year coming back from an injury, already dealing with a sprained ankle, and with nearly 2200 career carries. Of course, I have hated Portis for YEARS and have burned by that bias many times in the past, so who knows--maybe he will pull off his best Curtis Martin impression and have a career year. If anyone knows Portis it's Dave, who seems to draft him every single season. Or is that completely untrue and I am being skewed by a bias again? I am too lazy to look it up.
Steven Jackson and Matt Forte... the backfield everybody loves to hate. How many fantasy owners has Steven Jackson burnt? Health issues, underperformance, disappearing acts... ahhh the joys of being a Steven Jackson owner. He's the ultimate risk/reward pick, and Vince can't seem to get enough--he even traded for Jackson last year in the keeper league! Friends, it might be time for an intervention, but until then we can pontificate on what type of season S-Jax is going to have. From where I'm standing, 2009 looks like an anomaly. I'm thinking Frank Gore would have been the better pick here. As for Forte, Christ... I drafted Forte in the first round last year and I watched every single one of his carries just waiting for the breakout performance that never came. I'm not convinced that this cat is actually any good. If he has a great season in 2010 I am going to go visit a gypsy because the only explanation is that I am cursed--I expect like 1000 yards and 5-6 touchdowns out of this guy, nothing more. So Rich, what the hell? You are trashing this backfield like crazy so why is Vince ranked #8? Excellent question! Everyone else's backfield seems to lack any kind of star power, and if Jackson can find a way to duplicate last year's performance, this backfield will actually be decent. And I guess if something goes horribly wrong, Cadillac Williams, who I think is going to have the same kind of season as somebody like Forte, lurks in the background. So there is a little depth here, and possibly some thrills.
The starting tandem of DeAngelo Williams and LeSean McCoy is where I envision the big drop-off in total RB fantasy points occuring. It's all downhill from here, kids. For starters, I am seeing DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart as split-carry guys, as has been the case over the past two seasons. But OK, so far they've both managed 1100+ yards and 10 scores while co-existing--what's your point? My point is that I don't want to field a Ryan Grant-type as my RB1 if I can help it. I want a feature guy. Just not feeling Williams as an RB1. As for McCoy, I really didn't see anything out of this guy last year that makes me think he will be anything more than an average NFL back. He is not Brian Westbrook, that is for certain. Westbrook, if you recall, had an amazing rookie season--his playmaking ability was obvious. McCoy just didn't do anything special in his rookie campaign, and to me that is a major red flag. He was on my do not draft list even and I don't like him as an RB2. As for backups, Reggie Bush is actually interesting to me this year as it appears the Saints are going to look to use him a bit more in the running game and he has shown signs of competence in the preseason. LT will probably end up with a decent amount of short-yardage touchdowns and can probably be used with limited success if needed.
Pierre Thomas and Jonathan Stewart are a couple of high-end RB2s that will be plenty servicable but exhibit the same problem as Williams and McCoy above: no star power. Pierre is my 14th ranked RB and Stewart my 16th, but here's the thing... once you get down past RB #10 you're generally under the 200 point cut-off, and once you hit 15-16 you're typically in the 160s. So unless either of these guys seriously outperforms their past results, you are looking at a combined point total of one Adrian Peterson. It kind of blows my mind when I do that math because when you're watching NFL games both of these guys seem pretty damn good, but that's the fantasy reality. But maybe Jim has a fantasy gem waiting in reserve in Laurence Maroney. Could this be the year he actually becomes a workhorse in New England? Just kidding, of course not. When Fred Taylor is still outperforming you in his 50s, you've got problems. But at least Maroney is a decent bye week option.
Joe's backfield comes in at #11, and not for my lack of trying to rank them higher. Look, I hope Jahvid Best is rookie of the year. I hope he runs for 1400 yards and 10 scores and tacks on another 500 yards receiving. But let's be real here--he's talented to be sure, but unless he turns out to be Chris Johnson Part II, 1500 combined yards and a half-dozen touchdowns is kind of what I expect. Now don't get me wrong, those are high end RB2 numbers and Best will serve Joe well in that capacity unless I am completely blinded by homerism, which is certainly possible. But where the problem really lies is with Cedric Benson. Who wants to bet that Best outperforms Benson? Anyone? Not seeing Benson as having more than 1300 yards and 8 scores. He does not really catch the football much, so that limits his upside. At least Joe has two decent backups that stand a chance out outperforming their draft position. I do like Bradshaw better than Jacobs this year, but the dude is gonna get his TDs. As for Fred Taylor, the guy is still the 1 in New England which is silly, but he's probably good for 6-10 fantasy points per week.
Rounding out the bottom of the RB class is Jason's tandem of Ryan Matthews and Marion Barber... a rookie and a has-been. Let's play a game for a second. Imagine that Ryan Matthews turns out to be the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson. That would give him 1600 combined yards and 10 scores as a rookie. AWESOME. Now just imagine that he's not LaDainian Tomlinson... pretty easy to imagine, right? Kind of uninspiring as an RB1 when you take the odds into account. And then there is Marion Barber, who has been injured for like... ever. Sure the guy was once a touchdown machine, but he hasn't broken 1000 yards rushing ever and has been in decline since 2007 in the touchdown department. I think I just threw up a little in my mouth. Not a good play as an RB2. Justin Forsett may be a better play here, but someone in Seattle has to give the guy the damn ball. Lots of whispers coming out of the Seahawks saying they're returning to a split carry situation because they've been impressed with Leon Washington, and if that's the case Jason is pretty screwed unless Brandon Jacobs gets injured and Bradshaw becomes a feature back. Lots of IFs here--this backfield needs some help. Post-draft note: It looks like Bradshaw has leapt Jacobs on the depth chart, so it's possible that Barber will be relegated to Jason's bench.
Wide Receivers
Presumed Starters Rank Backups Boris Randy Moss, Boldin Bryant, Housh, Walter, Galloway Joe Fake Steve Smith, T.O. Aromashodu, Floyd JV Ward, Driver Manningham, Mason, Royal, Gonzalez Vince Fitzgerald, Steve Smith Breaston, Britt Dave DeSean Jackson, Welker Santana Moss, Holmes, Robinson, Massaquoi Jason Man Child, Jennings Evans Joe Sr. Calvin Johnson, Crabtree Garcon, Cotchery Steve Austin, Marshall Meachem, Collie Geoff Colston, Sims-Walker Maclin, Burleson, Henderson Jim Harvin, Ochocinco Edwards, Tate, Hester Rich White, Nicks Knox, V.Jackson, TB Mike Williams, Berrian Tom Wayne, Bowe Wallace, Rice, Murphy Last year I did not give any love to the wide receiver position in the draft analysis, which I will rectify this year since there are so many interesting things to talk about. I would also like to tweak my prior year's statement that this position does not make or break your fantasy season. What I SHOULD have said is that this position rarely makes your season, but can definitely break it. Therefore, we will talk about it.
OK, so into the meat! Jason has the worst set of running backs in the league, but on the flip-side he's got the best receiver tandem. Andre Johnson stands alone as the undisputed #1 receiver in fantasy football after posting back to back 1500-yard seasons. Jennings is a top-10 talent and an awesome asset as a WR2. I don't like big play guys as my #1 since consistency is a major issue (see DeSean Jackson a few paragraphs down), but lined up next to somebody like Andre Johnson who brings it every week, you really can't go wrong. No depth here, however, so Jason has to hope to avoid the injury bug or find someone in free agency. Lee Evans is TRBL and his QB situation doesn't help matters at all.
Steve's got a great pair of receivers in Miles Austin and Brandon Marshall. Austin had a breakout year in 2009 and looks primed for a repeat. As for Marshall, it will be interesting to see what he can do in a run-heavy Miami offense with a quarterback who is still unproven by NFL standards. Marshall has never cought less than 100 balls and still managed the feat with Kyle Orton behind center, so it would be foolish to bet against him. Backups here are pretty meh... Meachem had 9 TDs and 722 yards last year on only 45 catches, and I just can't believe he's gonna repeat that performance with teams keying on the long ball. Almost all of his touchdowns were over 25 yards. Tough to do that two years in a row. Collie is stuck behind Wayne, Garcon, and Clark from a target perspective, and it looks like he is going to share the slot position with Anthony Gonzalez which equals little fantasy value.
Boris' first round pick Randy Moss is 33 but you can't count him out yet. The notoriously selfish player didn't show many signs of slowing down last season, and he finds himself in a contract year here in 2010. The one thing we know for sure about Moss is he loves him some cash, and you'd expect him to play his ass off for his one last pay day. Boldin is the man now in Baltimore with a rising young QB, and although running is still the preferred method of attack in that offense, Flacco is no slouch and could approach 3800 yards. Boldin should be expected to catch a good chunk of that. Backups on this squad are interesting. Houshmazilly is still the #1 in Seattle and someone not named Carlson has gotta catch the damn ball over there. Bryant could make an impact as a rookie with the kind of talent he brings to the table, even if he has struggled through camp with an ankle injury. Ah, to be young again! Walter might end up being the #3 behind Jacoby Jones in Houston, but still should see a fair number of balls with Schaub tossing for 4500 yards. Galloway makes for a nice team mascot but not much else.
Tom takes the 4 spot with Wayne and Bowe. Some people have been saying that Wayne started to show his age last year, and sure--maybe that's the case as evidenced by his declining yards per catch. But if 100 balls, 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns isn't cool, consider me Miles Davis. Not seeing the alleged decline just yet. Bowe had a disappointing campaign last year between a suspension and overall bad play, but the dude has monster talent and with a new offense installed in KC I would expect him to have a great year. Tom stole him from my grubby hands one pick before I was going to take him, so I will no doubt rue that fact for the entire coming season. In backup land, I love Mike Wallace as a WR3 with great upside. When Ben comes back, he should put up some monster games. Rice is probably a wasted pick since you can't expect a WR to perform after missing half the season due to hip surgery, and Murphy is kind of a complete unknown since we've never seen what he is capable of with a capable quarterback. But hey, you only need one servicable backup so who the heck cares? Post-draft update: The injury to Byron Leftwich definitely reduces Mike Wallace's fantasy value for the first four games until Big Ben returns. It looks like Dennis Dixon is going to be the starter at QB, which means less throwing.
Joe Sr. is rolling out a couple of young stars in Calvin Johnson and Michael Crabtree. What really needs to be said about Calvin Johnson to a bunch of Detroit slappies? We all know that if he and Stafford stay healthy, he could be the best receiver in the league. Cross your fingers, Lions fans. As for Crabtree, he should be a solid WR2 with some upside. He's got a great short game, and with teams keying on Vernon Davis after his explosion last year, Crabtree should make for an excellent red zone target. With all of his talent, I would expect nothing less than 1000-1100 yards and 7-8 scores. It is my belief that Pierre Garcon is going to have a season like this as well. He is more talented than Anthony Gonzalez and was Manning's go-to guy in the Superbowl, so he's got the trust of his quarterback. Wouldn't be shocked to see Garcon catching most of the long balls in Indy this year. As for Cotchery, I don't think any of the Jets receivers are going to have a particularly great year and especially not Cotchery in the presence of Edwards and Holmes, so he's probably not good for anything more than emergency situations.
Vince has a couple of big names as his 1 and 2, but I am not sold on either of them. Fitzgerald was taken way too high in the draft between an MCL sprain and the loss of Kurt Warner. Let's start with the MCL: this is the same injury that Polamalu and Anthony Gonzalez got early last year and never came back from. Sure, there are degrees of severity with every injury, but to think that this guy is going to play at 100% after a few weeks rest is a reach. Also, on the QB issue, Leinart and Anderson both suck. If Fitzgerald does play this season, I would not be surprised to see him finish outside of the top 15 or 20 WRs. Conversely, I would be SHOCKED if he finished top 5. But for the sake of these rankings and because everyone ranked lower has their own question marks to deal with, I'll consider Fitz a borderline top-10 wideout which is still a long way from the #2 or 3 spot he was commanding early in the year. Now Steve Smith isn't without issues either. He is super aggressive and a wonderful talent, but he is not getting any younger and it remains to be seen what Matt Moore is going to be able to accomplish. Scary thing is if neither one of these guys pans out, Vince is pretty hosed with his backups in Breaston and Britt. Like both of these guys from a talent perspective, but they can't throw themselves the ball.
Dave selected DeSean Jackson as his #1 guy, and personally that would not make me very comfortable. This guy reminds me of Santana Moss in his youth. That is, not a ton of catches and most of his touchdowns coming from long scores. It's hard for these guys to repeat their success under these conditions, as evidenced by Greg Jennings' meager 4 TDs last year. Granted it's clear that Jackson is still #1 on the Eagles ahead of Maclin, but does that #1 even have the same value with McNabb gone? I am maybe not as sold on Kolb as everyone else, especially when I see him struggling against vanilla preseason defenses. Welker as the #2 is interesting to me--I'm sure Dave is wondering, "What could possibly go wrong?" That this guy is even playing right now is nothing short of a miracle of modern medicine. From what I have seen I think he could actually be a 100-catch guy again, but I can't imagine he will have the quickness or ability to tack on the YAC that he has been famous for in the past. As for backups, I mind many of them intriguing and I think there may be some trade bait here. Since Dave got the new Santana Moss, what's the harm in getting the original? He's still a burner, and McNabb may use this guy better than Kolb can use Jackson. Massaquoi is the clear #1 on the Browns, and we have seen how much Delhomme favors his #1 guy. Laurent Robinson may end up with a decent rookie year as the most talented receiver on the Rams now that Avery is toast, and Holmes should have an OK year as the best WR on the Jets once he returns from suspension.
Finally at #8 we arrive at my guys. I am loving Roddy White as my WR1 who seems primed for a huge season now that Turner is back in Atlanta and they will establish the running game. Interesting fact about White: He was tied with Andre Johnson as the most targeted receiver in the NFL last year, despite the fact that Chris Redman was throwing the ball for the last three games. The other interesting thing about White is that his TDs have gone up each of the last three years. 6-7-11-? I like White as a top-5 finisher in 2010. WR2 on my squad is where things get dicey, and I am being conservative with my WR ranking as a result--I mean, I drafted a whole mess of guys to try and hit the WR2 lottery. I do not like Nicks as much as the pundits, despite the fact that he is the most physically gifted of the Giants receivers. The dude has a bad attitude and I am not sure he can hold it together. That said, sometimes I love to be wrong, so that's why I grabbed him when Bowe went off the board one pick earlier. I am really hoping, however, that Vincent Jackson ends up as my WR2 by October. Johnny Knox also offers up some intrigue and I have a feeling that he might surprise in Chicago. I love him as a WR3 due to the big play weeks that are sure to come, and I think he has some serious upside; I am not entirely convinced that he can't be an every-week start. We'll know a lot more when the Bears play the Lions in week 1. Benard Berrian is going to start in Minnesota until Rice comes back and he could be serviceable but probably not stellar, and finally Mike Williams looks primed to become the best wideout in Tampa Bay. But woo hoo, Tampa Bay. Williams is gonna have to be incredibly special to put up reasonable numbers there, but from the looks of things that might actually prove to be the case. He has had an amazing preseason. Post-draft update: Vincent Jackson has not yet signed and appears to be suspended for 6 games. Not sure this affect the rankings, however. Still like my spaghetti strategy and think it will stick.
Marques Colston will be a solid WR1 as long as Drew Brees is throwing the football in New Orleans. I think he's a safer play than guys like Jackson and Jennings, because he is marvelously consistent, catches more balls, and is a red zone/goal line target. And don't discount the fact that Meachem and Henderson are both coming off surgery--it is very possible that Colston has his most productive season yet in 2010. But like me, despite having a solid 1, Geoff has a dicey WR2 situation. I think Sims-Walker is pretty much fool's gold. The guy started the season en fuego, but completely disappeared for the last six games. So what happened? Some people tack it up to injury, that he was suffering through ankle, calf, and knee injuries and that mess caught up to him. But the other school of thought is that his early success was a direct result of being an unknown. I think either way, you have to be concerned. And let's not forget that Garrard is still the QB in Jacksonville, which doesn't help. At any rate, I think if you draft this guy you have to acknowledge the risk by picking up some potential replacements, and I think Geoff did a good job of that. There are folks out there who think Maclin is going to have a better season in Philly than DeSean Jackson, and while I think that is maybe a bit of a stretch, I suppose I would not be entirely surprised. Nate Burleson could have a great season between Stafford's cannon arm and single coverage all year thanks to one Calvin Johnson, and Devery Henderson, if healthy, is always a nice guy to have lying around in a pinch because every 3 weeks or so the guy seemingly goes off for 90 and a score. You just gotta guess right.
Tied in 10th place we've got Joe and Jim. I guess if someone held a gun up to my head and made me pick a winner I would choose Joe, so we'll start there. Fake Steve Smith of the Giants had a pretty stellar 2009, and while I do not LOVE Hakeem Nicks as my personal WR2, you can easily see how his maturity is going to affect Smith's production. The Giants believe that Nicks is the true #1 in this offense or will become it very soon, and let's not discount Manningham's role as the 3. I really think 100 balls and 1200 yards is Smith's ceiling, and we haven't even touched on his training camp groin injury that "allegedly" is no longer bothering him. If there's one thing I know about groin injuries, they have a nasty habit like hamstrings to become nagging issues. Then after Smith we've got Terrell Owens, and look--I like T.O. this year. I liked him enough to grab him in the keeper league. But I don't like him enough to risk grabbing him as my WR2. The guy is 36 years old. Could he go for 1100 and 10? Yeah, I think that is feasible. But is it probable? That's the question I can't answer yes to, regardless of what I have seen in preseason. I am thinking T.O. is gonna have a decent year, but it's gonna be more like 1000 and 6 which puts him in fairly run-of-the-mill company. Aromashodu as a reserve has potential. I am with Joe on this that he plays a bigger role in the Bears offense than they are letting on. Knox and Shodu will probably lead the team in receptions with Hester #3, but Joe has taken a page out of my playbook and is grabbing guys based on hunches. Obviously I don't have a problem with that, I just think they are big enough reaches to warrant a low positional ranking. As for Floyd, he is very interesting. Joe has got to be hoping that Vincent Jackson never signs, because if he does Floyd has no real upside. But if V-Jax stays on the bench, Floyd could actually play in the WR2 space. I just don't see that as likely right now.
Jim's got the other #10 in fielding Percy Harvin and Ochocinco. I don't believe Harvin is capable of carrying the load as a #1 receiver in Minnesota yet. He is an optimal 2 with his raw talent, but I don't think he is technical enough at this point to play the 1 and he is going to get the attention of every defense while Rice is down. I think Harvin takes a small step back this year as a result. As for Ocho, he just gets a little bit worse every year. In 2007 he had over 1400 yards and 8 scores, in 2008 he got injured and struggled through every game just to be out there, and last year his numbers fell to 1047 yards, albeit with 9 TDs. With Owens there likely vulturing a couple of those, I'd look for 1000 and 6 or 7 here as well. On the bench, Jim's got the guy who some people think is going to be this year's Percy Harvin in Golden Tate. Unfortunately, Tate doesn't have 2009 Brett Favre throwing the ball to him, so while I think Tate may have some big games, I wouldn't expect the same kind of blow-it-out performance that we saw from Harvin last year. Braylon Edwards is here on the bench as well, along with Devin Hester. Edwards melted down a few years back after a monster season and forgot how to catch the football, and now he's stuck on a running team surrounded by positional talent that is on-par or better than he is. As I think the season will prove out, Hester is the least talented of the Bears' trio of receivers. Cutler threw for a lot of yards last season, but Hester could only manage to grab 757 of them as his own. Don't like this guy as anything more than an emergency starter.
Last and least, we find JV bottom-dwelling with his old men. Hines Ward and Donald Driver? Maybe in 2005, but not today. JV is really rolling out two WR3s as his 1 and 2, and it is not going to work out well for him. Ward is going to struggle through the first four weeks of the year with Leftwich behind center, and between that fact and one more year on his body, his 2009 stat line of 1167 and 6 TDs is going to suffer. This may finally be the year that Ward doesn't see 1000 yards. Similarly, Driver experienced a little bit of a career comeback in 2009 after two very down years in seasons prior, but I'd look at this in the same light as the good day everyone has in the hospital right before they croak. At 35 the end is definitely near. 1000 and 6 seems like a stretch, and the reality is that Jermichael Finley has become the possession receiver in Green Bay. But JV doesn't stop his old man collection there... oh no! He added his beloved Derrick Mason to the roster as well, at the ripe old age of 36. Father Time has got to experience a drop-off this year with Boldin in town, and I suspect Mason won't be more than a WR4 this year as a result. But JV does have a smattering of youthful wideouts on his bench as well, just in case the old men drop dead. JV drafted Manningham incorrectly believing that this would be his 3rd-year breakout campaign, but the word out of New York in early preseason was that he might get relegated to the 4th receiver due to his crappy work ethic. I think as of now it is pretty safe to say that he has a lock on #3, but Nicks stepped into Manningham's role as the 2 even at the end of last season. Eddie Royal and Anthony Gonzalez are hanging out in JV land as well, and I don't have great feelings about either one of these guys. Gonzalez and Collie are probably going to split the slot position in Indy as I have mentioned before, and I don't think either have value as a result. Royal doesn't seem to have any value in the absence of Brandon Marshall. He's not good enough to beat the double team and guys like Jabar Gaffney look like they're going to outproduce him in Denver.
Tight Ends
Presumed Starters Rank Backups Boris Gonzalez Shockey Joe Shiancoe Pettigrew JV Clark Vince Cooley Daniels Dave Witten Boss Jason Gates Carlson Joe Sr. Davis Steve Olsen Heath Miller Geoff Celek Keller Jim Winslow Scheffler Rich Finley Tom OAK Zach Miller Heap Antonio Gates has got to be poised for his best season in years. With Vincent Jackson holding out, Gates' ceiling increases substantially--he should see more balls downfield and more looks in the red zone, to the extent that it's even possible. But it seems to me that the worst case scenario for Gates is a repeat of last year's performance, and Gates has finished the year as one of fantasy's top four TEs for seven years running. Should Gates get bit by the injury bug, I like Carlson a lot and expect him to haul in the most receptions of anyone in Seattle this year.
Loving Jermichael Finley, who I think has a chance to be even better than Gates as a fantasy tight end this season. Finley was a beast last year until he went down with a mid-season knee sprain. Finley got healthy, however, and led all tight ends in fantasy points for the last five weeks of the season. He is Aaron Rodgers' favorite target and incredibly versatile.
Gotta give the nod to Dallas Clark at number 3, as no doubt some of you people probably think I'm insane for ranking Finley higher. I mean, I get that Clark was retarded good last year with 1106 yards and 10 scores. But here's the thing--there is an emerging group of good receivers in Indy, and Clark has been battling through a preseason injury. I expect Clark to return to 2008 form rather than duplicate his ridiculous 2009.
It is so difficult for me to accept that Vernon Davis has become a fantasy weapon since he was such a turd for his first three years in the league, but you can't ignore 965 yards and 13 TDs. I would expect the addition of Crabtree to eat into these numbers somewhat, but I don't think Alex Smith is good enough to not keep Davis locked in his crosshairs.
Last year in the analysis I said if you hadn't heard of Zach Miller, you would soon. And lo, even with Jamarcus Russell throwing the football (who isn't even good enough to make another NFL roster), Miller still managed 805 yards receiving. My thought process goes like this: if you can amass 800 yards with the worst QB in the league, what are you capable of with someone competent behind center? And what I come up with is: top-5 fantasy potential. But Tom better hope I am right, because Todd Heap is has-been city and IMO not worth a roster spot.
I can't rank Witten any higher than #6 because the guy has simply stopped catching touchdown passes. From 2007 to 2009, his TDs went from 7 to 4 to 2, and Dallas just continues to add weapons in the receiving game. Boss is a decent backup, but barely cracks my top-20 and you've gotta wonder if guys like this are actually worth holding. There has been some chatter about his talent and possible better seasons ahead, but my opinion is that if he was going to have any kind of breakout it would have happened already, and 2009 yielded an average stat line of 567 yards with 5 TDs.
Tony Gonzalez the Ageless Wonder leads off the bottom half of the TE rankings. Still not a bad place to be for a dude who is in his 14th NFL season. Gonzalez continues to be productive, albeit having experienced a significant drop in fantasy status last season (some would say only because of turf toe). I suspect Gonzalez will remain very relevant for at least 2010. Should he falter earlier than expected, Boris would experience a serious downgrade to his starting lineup in having to field Jeremy Shockey, who despite having Drew Brees throwing him the football remains a fantasy disappointment. But it's better than having no backup to speak of, like some of the guys who own top-5 TEs.
As you will read a couple of paragraphs down, I am not a Celek fan this year. I am however, a big Cooley fan for one simple reason: Donovan McNabb. Cooley was a pretty good player before getting hurt last season, and I'm looking for a return to form of 800 yards or so with 8 TDs in his new surroundings. But should that not come true, Vince has Owen Daniels on the bench who is always a fantasy boon while his ACL is operational (he tore it for the third time last season... ouch).
I am not sure what to think of Shiancoe this year. He is not a yardage guy, as despite being in the presence of Favre's monster resurgence actually managed to have his YPC and total yards actually go down. Of course, Favre has always loved to use his TEs in the red zone, and Shiancoe was the beneficiary of this in finding the end zone 11 times. So here's the thing... I do not expect the Vikings and/or Favre to be as good as they were last year, so I am thinking a downgrade to Shiancoe's TDs. As a backup, Joe has Pettigrew who nobody really expects to be relevent in fantasy. He is coming off a nasty knee injury and was not that special as a receiver in the weeks prior.
#1 fun fact about Brent Celek: He is a pretty talented dude. #2 fun fact about Brent Celek: Kevin Kolb is barely looking at him in the preseason, opting to target Jeremy Maclin a lot more. So how much was Celek's 2009 success attributed to the presence of Donovan McNabb? I'm guessing a lot. I'm not saying that 2 TD Keller is the better play here--not by a long shot--but I am thinking there is a lot of downside to Celek as a starting fantasy TE.
Kellen Winslow had 885 yards last season along with 5 TDs. Four of those TDs came in the first five weeks before Josh Freeman took a regular season snap for the Bucs. That does not exactly reek of fantasy success for Winslow in 2010. The Bucs are going to suck this year, and suck bad. Scheffler probably isn't going to provide any relief here for Jim with the exception of the occassional big game which will probably be impossible to time.
Finally at #12 we arrive at Greg Olsen, a TE I definitely do not want on my team. Actually, I refuse to even rank him at 12 because Heath Miller is going to be better with his 600 yards and 5 scores. Mike Martz just does not use his TE, and Olsen is therefore worthless. The best thing that could happen to Steve here is that Olsen gets traded to an offense that will put his talent to use.
Defenses/Special Teams
Presumed Starter Rank Backups Joe Ravens Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Joe Sr. 49ers Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Vince Saints Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Boris Eagles Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Rich Patriots Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. JV Steelers Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Jason Colts Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Steve Packers Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Tom Jets Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Geoff Bengals Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Dave Vikings Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Jim Cowboys Who cares? I'm tired. Didn't bother looking. Why Jets so low? Rich, are you on crack? Fun Fact: The consensus #1 defense has not finished in the top ten fantasy defenses once in the past ten years. Putting them at #10 is actually generous.
You can't question science.
Final Quantitative Draft Analysis
Mr. McHugh has the best team after the draft and is expected to win his division!
The shock! The horror! How can this be?????
Mr. M really did a great job drafting this year and I am happy to finally not have to stomp him. As a thank you to him for not making me come up with more insults, I am ranking him #1 overall as he rightfully deserves. He is strong where it counts and only somewhat weak at QB, but the difference between say a #2 QB and a #9 QB is only 50-60 points. He more than makes up for it with strong RBs, a good receiving core, a good fantasy TE and a solid defense.
But of course, I am still better than the rest of you suckers.
QB RB WR TE DEF Unweighted Average Expected Points Rank Joe Sr. 9 1 5 4 3 4.4 1340 Rich 7 2 8 2 9 5.6 1288 Tom 6 3 4 5 10 5.6 1285 Dave T-1 7 7 6 6 5.4 1233 Steve 11 5 2 12 1 6.2 1233 Boris 12 9 3 7 2 6.6 1186 JV 3 6 12 3 8 6.4 1182 Jason 10 12 1 1 12 7.2 1179 Vince 8 8 6 8 7 7.4 1129 Joe T-1 11 T-10 9 4 7.0 1120 Geoff 5 4 9 10 11 7.8 1113 Jim 4 10 T-10 11 5 8.0 1079
Divisional Predictions
Division 1 The Contender Boris I feel like the draft analysis has failed me here considering Boris has the weakest QB and below average RBs, and his strength is in his defense which could arguably go south quickly. The Contender JV Despite the analysis outcome I think JV is the favorite to win this division due to the strength of his QB and RBs vs. Boris, but time shall tell. This is the cupcake division this year so either one has a shot. The Pretender Vince Average everywhere. No stars. Bad formula for fantasy success. Vince was asleep at the wheel. The Goat Joey Donuts Great QB but crap at other key positions. One injury away from total fantasy irrelevance. D2, here comes Joe... the last great D1 holdout. Division 2 The Favorite Joe Sr. What more needs to be said? The favorite overall. Not much is going to stop this team aside from a down year by MJD or Cutler totally imploding. The Contender Dave Dave's team is like Vince's only with superstar power in Aaron Rodgers. This makes a world of difference. The Contender Steve This is a tough division. Steve has a solid defense and receivers, and an above average RB core. A strong contender for the wild card, like Dave above. The Pretender Jason Not a horrible team given strength at WR and TE, but with the RBs he's rolling out, Jason is just outclassed in this division this year. Division 3 The Contender Rich Like D1, there is no favorite here. There is, however, talent. Rich has great RBs and is at least average everywhere else.
The Contender Tom Tom is strong everywhere and most everyone will argue has a better defense than analyzed in this document. But you can't fuck with science. The Pretender Geoff Above average QB and RBs but bad elsewhere. Could cause damage, but not expected to contend. The Goat Jim Jim is always the goat. Let's be real here. :)
Final Thoughts
D1, take a hike. With the teams you are rolling out, you don't deserve a playoff berth. Of course I am down in D3 this year so what can I really say? Do you people even listen to me anymore? I guess I can still say you all suck. Because it's true.
Championshp Prediction: Rich overcomes Joe Sr. in the fantasy bowl to win his 3rd fantasy title because Joe Sr. will forget to set his lineup.
Have a good season, jerks.