Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, 2009 Edition
Before the draft we figured out that our league is now 13 years running--kind of amazing considering Joe isn't even mentally that old. But I am just getting started, and already I digress. The real story here is that we are in the middle of an apocalypse. The banks nearly collapsed, GM and Chrysler went belly-up, folks lost their entire life savings to a giant ponzi scheme, cats and dogs are living together (mass hysteria)... but who gives a fuck? It's football season!
So, welcome to another year of good times. I salute you, Mr. Fantasy Football Manager.
The analysis is now nine years running itself, and by now I'm sure everyone knows how this works. The reality of the document you are about to read is this: I perform an analysis of every team, rate myself the best, rib folks here and there, tell Mr. McHugh his team sucks, and we all go home happy. I promise you, this year will be no exception. At least the part about Mr. McHugh's team sucking, anyway. That said, I still feel that it is my duty to provide everyone with the disclaimer, slightly reworked for the new season:
The 2009 Draft Analysis is not for the faint of heart. If you're too sensitive to hear that your team sucks, then stop reading this article now. Nobody wants your league-wide email complaining about how your team is so underrated and I'm so crazy. You want a soapbox? Write a goddamn article yourself. In addition...
Quarterbacks
Presumed Starter Rank Backups Joe Ryan Edwards Joe Sr. Romo Bulger, Quinn, Anderson Vince Rodgers Favre Boris Brees Delhomme Rich Cutler Flacco JV P.Manning Jason Warner Hasselbeck Steve Rivers Garrard, Campbell Tom Cassel Orton Geoff McNabb Roethlisberger Dave Schaub Palmer Jim Brady E.Manning Quarterback is becoming an interesting fantasy conundrum in the parlance of our times. It's not so much that an elite group no longer exists, it's just that, in my opinion, the second tier QBs are much more competitive than they have ever been. In my mind, on top you have Brees and Brady in tier 1, Manning, Rodgers, and Rivers in tier 1A, and then you have a second tier of McNabb, Romo, and Cutler, depending on how much they let him sling the ball in Chicago. That leaves us with a tier 3 in Ryan, Cassel, and Schaub. Granted, I wouldn't personally feel comfortable fielding one of those tier 3 guys, but still--when was the last time you looked at all of the fantasy rosters and thought, "9 of these guys are totally set at quarterback?"
Brees and Brady look primed to throw for 4,500 yards and approach the 35-40 touchdown barrier. All the pieces are in place for both of them to succeed. Brees is an absolute machine, and Brady looks fully recovered from a knee injury in week 1 of last year.
Manning is no longer capable of these types of numbers--not so much by any fault of his own, but the offensive line is not in good shape and they don't have a receiving weapon on offense that can match the loss of Harrison or an elite rushing weapon to take the pressure off. This puts the likes of Rivers and Rodgers, two up and coming QBs (numbers-wise, anyway) hitting their prime, in his company. I would be surprised if they did not approach Manning-type fantasy numbers this year. Manning still leads this group out of respect for years of consistency.
Romo is two years removed from a 36-TD season, and still threw for over 3,400 yards last year despite missing three games. The loss of Owens will hurt his productivity, but he will still put up digits. McNabb is a perennial 2nd-tier QB and I don't see that changing, especially since they keep adding talent around him. Cutler would be among the fantasy elite if he was still in Denver, but lacks the weapons (and offensive philosophy) in Chicago to put up crazy points. It would be shocking, however, if he did not finish in the top 10. I would not mind having any of these three men leading my fantasy team, which is why they are all ranked T-7. Just too hard to separate on individual merits, and all a threat to approach Manning and company, fantasy-wise.
Rounding out the tiers we find ourselves at numbers 10 through 12. I like Ryan leading this group, based solely on what I saw out of him last season. I don't think he will ever put up amazing fantasy numbers because of how much they run the ball in Atlanta (I don't believe this will change regardless of Ryan's progress, given the RB weapons they have), but there should be incremental improvement. As for Schaub at #11, this is a guy with tons of talent who simply cannot stay healthy. Not much else to say about that. If he could finish an entire season, he'd be in the company of Romo, McNabb, and Cutler, but that does not appear to be a reality. Dave needs to count on Palmer to return to previous form, but he is also battling injuries and appears to be perennially broken. I am presuming that he can field one of these guys on any given week. Cassel is #12 based solely on the fact that I do not believe. It is quite different being a part of the Patriots machine than it is in KC where talented skill players are few and far between. I can't fathom Cassel approaching his 2008 numbers. He is also starting off the season with an MCL sprain, which may or may not keep him on the bench for week 1, and may or may not affect him mentally for a while.
Running Backs
Presumed Starters Rank Backups Joe D.Williams, Gore R.Bush, Bradshaw, Washington, Greene, Ringer Joe Sr. Jacobs, Mendenhall Sproles, C.Taylor, Edge Vince Moreno, Lynch Wells, Davis, F.Jackson Boris R.Brown, Rice Benson, Coffee, Betts Rich Forte, Westbrook L.Johnson, McCoy, McClain, Charles JV C.Johnson, Portis Stewart, White, D.Brown, M.Bush Jason Peterson, Parker Addai, C.Williams, J.Jones, Maroney Steve MJD, McFadden Norwood, Jennings Tom Turner, Barber Lewis, Hightower Geoff S.Jackson, Slaton Thomas, F.Taylor, Graham Dave Tomlinson, Grant Ward, F.Jones, McGahee Jim Smith, T.Jones Fargas, R.Williams I always like to devote a little extra writing to running backs, since they are still the engines which make fantasy teams go. The recent popularity of taking WRs in high rounds is total bunk, even in today's NFL. More on that later.
I had a very hard time ranking #1 vs #2. In the end, I gave the edge to the young guys over the old guys, so DeAngelo Williams and Six Buck Frankie come out on top of this year's RB class despite the looming presence of Jonathan Stewart. I really do like this backfield, fantasy-wise. Both RBs are healthy and entering their prime, and have proven they can put up numbers. Gore has some real duds of games on occasion, but Singletary wants to run and you can't deny that. Reggie Bush and Ahmad Bradshaw provide for serviceable backups in a pinch. It's not the year, however, to own Washington, Greene, and Ringer. First two are wasted roster spots unless Thomas Jones bites it. It looks like he still has something left in the tank. Ringer is 3rd string.
Matt Forte and Brian Westbrook could combine to be the best fantasy football backfield, but only if Westbrook can manage to stay healthy at the ripe old age of 30. If he goes down, McCoy is waiting on the bench to supplant him and Rich wisely handcuffed him, but if Westbrook ends up sharing carries because he's constantly at 80%, that could devastate this fantasy backfield. Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles in the KC backfield provide for backup duty on bye weeks, and I believe it is unclear who will be the better producer. I think any way you slice it, one of these guys is going to emerge as the better fantasy player and good for 150 fantasy points. Le'Ron McClain, despite being in a 3-headed monster situation in Baltimore, should still provide plenty of touchdowns and is useful in spot duty situations.
Michael Turner and Marion Barber provide for a solid fantasy backfield, and would be ranked #2 if not for rumors of Jerious Norwood and Felix Jones stealing a lot more carries from the two this season. That said, this is still one of the premiere sets of RBs in our league. Nothing to really complain about here. Jamal Lewis, despite being clearly on the down side, should still be good enough to serve in bye-week duty. Hightower, like McClain, can still provide fantasy points in a pinch as team touchdown specialist.
A pair of Steves take 4th place: Jackson and Slaton. Perhaps no player has been more frustrating to own over the last few years than Steven Jackson. He is massively talented and only 26, but has been seemingly bitten by the injury bug a la Brian Westbrook. Perhaps more importantly, his offensive line is clearly downgraded from his stellar year in 2006 and will see many 8-man fronts. I do not believe he is ever going to approach 2,300 combined yards ever again, but should be a decent enough threat for 1,500 and 12 scores if he can manage 16 games. As for Slaton, he made fools out of a lot of people who disregarded him in 2008, and is clearly a fantastic fantasy back. Also, he is only 23 so as far as wear and tear goes, well, he doesn't even know what that is yet. Pierre Thomas is probably the best RB3 in the league, and if you could play three backs this would make Geoff's backfield the clear #1. Fred Taylor is going to see plenty of action in New England, and Graham is going to be part of a 3-headed monster in Tampa Bay but should see most of the goal line duties. Some possible trade bait on this roster for sure, which could improve Geoff's team further as the season drags on.
Another new guy/old guy tandem takes 5th place in Chris Johnson and Clinton Portis. Johnson took the fantasy world by storm in 2008, posting 320 carries for 1,335 yards with 13 TDs despite being in a two-man backfield with the running back formerly known as LenWhale. I do not see that changing in 2009, even though the whale stopped drinking tequila. Portis, however, is an old 28 with lots of carries to his name, and is clearly on the down side of his career having lost 3rd down duties to Ladell Betts. Portis should still be a really good RB2 considering that he could still be a below-average RB1, so this backfield should work out quite nicely for GM JV. There is a lot to love about the reserves on this team as well--almost all of them should be touchdown vultures on their respective teams, and Jonathan Stewart and Donald Brown should add some respectable yardage as well. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stewart flirt with 1,000. Carolina wants to run the ball early and often, given that Jake Delhomme can't be trusted.
Backfield #6 consists of LaDainian Tomlinson and Ryan Grant. What is there to say about LT that everyone doesn't already know? He is clearly on his way out of football at 30, after posting the worst season of his career in 2008 and being plagued all year by nagging injuries. Like GM Rich with Brian Westbrook, GM Dave is hoping there's one more year of 1,400 combined yards and 13 TDs left in the tank. If not, this backfield suffers. As for Ryan Grant, I am not sure what to think of this guy. Clearly, last season represented only a fraction of what Grant can do when not holding out and healthy, but how big of a fraction is it? My guess is that he will put up decent numbers, but will never be great. Rounding out the backfield is Ward, Felix Jones, and McGahee--all guys who should see split time on their respective teams.
Steve pairs Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden in the backfield for tandem #7. MJD has a lot to prove this year now that Fred Taylor is gone. He has never seen a full load, but has been marvelous in shared-time. So the question is: Will be be more marvelous as a full-time back, or will the wear and tear of 300+ carries actually make him a worse RB, a la Marion Barber? This, of course, does not even take into consideration that the Jacksonville offensive line appears to be in shambles. To me, MJD is the greatest risk/reward player out there this year. Perhaps it will pay off, or perhaps Steve will be kicking himself for selecting him over Turner (which I think is completely ridiculous). Like Ryan Grant in the previous group of backs, I do not know what to think of McFadden. He has tons of talent, but I don't have any faith in that franchise and their ability to utilize it. This is a guy who could run for 1,300 yards or 800, and I honestly don't know what to expect. Given that we are talking about the Raiders, I think you have to assume the worst until proven otherwise. What really hurts here is that Steve does not have a serviceable reserve. Norwood should see additional action this year, but he's not going to be the type of guy who you can count on for any kind of consistency. Jennings is listed as the 4th RB on Jacksonville depth chart. WTF is he doing on a fantasy roster?
Jason pairs the best RB in the league, Adrian Peterson, with a broken down Willie Parker. I have to be honest--I barely have Parker in my top-25--but Peterson is talented enough and scores enough points to place this tandem at #8. "All Day" should really benefit from having a competent QB behind center this year in Brett Favre, and even if Favre is a shadow of his former self, defenses will still have to respect his ability to burn them downfield. This should result in fewer 8-man fronts, and sets the stage for AD's best fantasy season to date. Parker, however, is clearly not a franchise back. If Mendenhall didn't suck, I would be surprised if Parker even played much. When folks are talking about Mewelde Moore stealing carries from you, there's a problem. In my opinion, Jason has to hope that Addai returns to 2007 form or he is going to have an RB2 problem. Julius Jones is obviously not the answer, nor is Cadillac Williams. Maroney is currently listed on the depth chart behind Taylor, Morris, and Faulk (ouch).
Ronnie Brown and Ray Rice come in at number 9 in the RB rankings. This is a backfield that I personally love, but cannot in good conscience place any higher over the previously listed tandems. I believe Ronnie Brown is tremendously underrated, being 2 years removed from knee surgery (the magic number, for you kids keeping track at home). Ricky Williams is not much of a threat anymore to steal a ton of carries at the ripe old age of 32, and this should be the year that Brown sees 300. He can also catch the ball, and thanks to the wildcat offense comes with the occasional passing touchdown. Ray Rice is an up-and-coming talent in an offense that runs the ball more than any other team. McGahee is going to vulture carries and McClain touchdowns, but I still expect Rice to finish the season as a top-20 back. As for Benson, God help me... I do not believe. There is no way that you resurrect your career in Cincinnati. It was an aberration, an act of mere chance. Say it with me: Benson sucks. Coffee and Betts do not provide for much oomph unless Gore or Portis find themselves on the operating table at some point during the season.
In fantasy football, it is generally really difficult to win without a "real" RB1. This is where the beginning of the end starts in the rankings... the combination of Kevin Smith and Thomas Jones. Look, I like both of these guys OK, but they are not a threat for anything more than 1,100 yards and 8-9 scores. Doesn't help that Fargas and Ricky Williams don't provide for a legitimate backup option, either. Fargas just isn't going to get the workload (he perhaps deserves) because the Raiders are paying McFadden too much money, and Williams is old.
Vince finds himself in a bad situation, ranked #11. The problem is that rookie RBs who miss the preseason due to injuries or holdouts tend to play like crap in the regular season. Wells and Moreno are in this group. Combine that with the fact that Vince will be fielding RB Bills as his RB1, and you have a problem. Lynch is out for 3 weeks, and Fred Jackson will be getting the start until then. I estimate that Buffalo will end up finally seeing what they have in Jackson, and this is going to cause a split-time situation for Lynch going forward, effectively neutering his value. Of course this is just my projection, but even if Lynch ends up as the primary back, he's just not that effective in the first place.
Brandon Jacobs does not deserve to be down here in a group ranked #12, but when you pair him with the likes of Mendenhall, that's what you get. Jacobs is solid--could be good for 15 TDs on the ground. He will see a lot of 8-man fronts because Michigan State alumnus Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg like a fucking idiot, but Jacobs will likely just run over them. Mendenhall, however, is a big back with a very different situation. The Steelers are really trying to feed this guy the ball, but so far he has been a disappointment. It is possible that Ray Lewis ruined his career when he annihilated him as a rookie. Some people say that he is going to be the touchdown specialist this year, but I find that hard to believe because he can't hang on to the football. Perhaps that has been corrected, but I have seen nothing out of this guy to warrant draft selection as an RB2, let alone a RB3. Joe Sr should be praying to his god that Tomlinson or Peterson blows out a knee early in the season.
Wide Receivers
Presumed Starters Rank Backups Joe Colston, Morgan Jones, Nicks Joe Sr. C.Johnson, Henry Coles, B.Johnson Vince Fitzgerald, Wayne Avery, Washington, Heyward-Bey Boris A.Johnson, Welker D.Jackson, Crotchery, Hixon Rich White, Gonzalez Holmes, Bryant, Hester JV Edwards, Mason Driver, Harvin, Muhammad, Crayton Jason Jennings, Ward S.Moss, Moore Steve Houshmazood, V.Jackson Breaston, Burleson Tom Smith, Ochocinco Royal, Ginn, Maclin, Rice Geoff Bowe, Berrian Evans, Holt, Britt Dave R.Moss, Boldin Marshall, Crabtree, Chambers Jim Owens, Williams Walter, Manningham Fun fact: If numbers play out like they did in 2008, the difference between drafting Anquan Boldin in the 3rd round and Lance Moore in the 11th round is two fantasy points per week. Yet, people continue to place importance on this position outside of the elite 3 or so guys.
With that in mind, while I can appreciate the majesty of a receiving combination such as Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne, in the world of fantasy football for every Wayne there is an Antonio Bryant who comes out of nowhere and outscores him (see also: 2008). I just can't really place much value on this position, which is why I only tend to grab one WR who I think has a shot to eclipse that magic 1,300-yard mark and call it a day.
That doesn't mean that the position doesn't matter--an effective tandem over an ineffective one can mean the difference between scoring ~100 additional points in a given season which can make or break your year--but in reality this margin is usually closer to 50 points, or ~3.5 points per week, unless you really suck. Despite having to rank these teams 1 through 12, not a single WR tandem here, I believe, really sucks. Which, coincidentally, is why I have to weight the position averages in the quantitative portion at the end of these draft analysis documents. The difference between a good RB tandem and a bad RB tandem is usually night and day versus receivers.
Tight Ends (hahaha tight ends)
Presumed Starter Rank Backups Joe Daniels Shockey Joe Sr. H.Miller Pettigrew Vince Witten Celek Boris Olsen Boss Rich Clark JV Gates Jason Shiancoe Steve Winslow Scaife Tom Cooley Fasano Geoff Gonzalez Keller Dave Carlson Z.Miller Jim Scheffler Watson I think that it is fair to say that tight end depth is at an all-time high. Five years ago we would have fallen all over ourselves in round 3 to draft somebody like Antonio Gates, and now you can get a 7 or 800-yard contender in rounds 8 through 11. For those of you who haven't heard of the likes of Zach Miller or John Carlson, you will very soon. Now that I am looking at this analysis, I am thinking to myself that it was almost asinine to pick up Dallas Clark in round 4, as good as he is, when I could have had either of those guys 4 to 7 rounds later and only sacrificing probably one fantasy point per week. Ridiculous to think of it that way, but that's reality.
Defenses/Special Teams
Presumed Starter Rank Backups Joe Titans Joe Sr. Steelers Vince Chargers Jets Boris Patriots Rams Rich Cowboys Dolphins JV Eagles Colts Jason Ravens Raiders Steve Packers Redskins Tom Giants Bears Geoff Niners Seahawks Dave Panthers Texans Jim Vikings Buccaneers Since I always freely admit that I know next to nothing about evaluating team defenses, I commonly defer to a source with more expertise than I have to do it for me. I rotate the source based on prior year's performance. This year's rankings are brought to you by the wonderful folks at Pro Football Weekly. Hooray. It appears to be that there is a major drop after Philly, but what the hell do I know? I just work here.
Final Quantitative Draft Analysis
QB RB WR TE DEF Average Weighted Rank Rich 7 2 7 4 7 5.4 5.40 Tom 12 3 4 7 2 5.6 5.41 JV 3 5 12 2 6 5.6 5.42 Joe 10 1 11 5 4 6.2 5.43 Jason 6 8 6 10 3 6.6 5.67 Dave 11 6 2 8 10 7.4 5.83 Boris 1 9 3 6 8 5.4 5.90 Geoff 7 4 9 3 12 7 5.90 Jim 2 10 5 12 5 6.8 5.96 Vince 5 11 1 1 9 5.4 6.00 Joe Sr. 7 12 10 11 1 8.2 6.09 Steve 4 7 8 9 11 7.8 6.11 In my estimation, there is a clear first tier of fantasy teams: Rich, Tom, JV, and Joe. Barring injury to any major team components, I would say one of these four teams is a lock for the championship. In fact, you other eight teams might as well not even set your lineups this year. :)
Divisional Predictions
Division 1 The Favorite Joe This team is far and away the best squad in D1. RBs are too tough for the competition--Joe's squad is simply strong where it counts. The Contender Boris Drew Brees will win Boris plenty of games by himself. Could surprise if RBs live up to their potential, and Ray Rice accelerates his growth curve. The Pretender Vince RBs are just too weak to do any real damage. Being ranked #1 at WR is overrated, given so many options. Being #1 at TE is no real prize, either. The Pretender Joe Sr. This team is really bad. Great defense, otherwise blah. Being ranked in the bottom half of all categories is no way to start a season. Welcome back to D2. Division 2 The Favorite Rich The favorite to win the division but only by a hair. Average or better at all positions, plus strong RBs. WRs could surprise. Needs Westbrook's health to win. The Contender JV Returning champion; Could easily win the division in a tough race with Rich. Strong everywhere but WR, where it doesn't matter if you're weak. RB depth a +. The Dark Horse Jason By no means a slouch. Would be a playoff contender in any other division. No real strengths other than at defense, but will provide problems for most teams. The Dark Horse Geoff Again: Not a bad team here, rounding out the toughest division. Could rise to the top with some key wins. RBs could murder people if they succeed. Division 3 The Favorite Tom What a way to recover from a 1-win season. Tom's team is scary, and will be scarier if Cassel ends up being the real deal. Lots of big-play talent here. The Contender Dave A solid team that needs LT to stay healthy to win, and could contend for a wild card if he does. WRs are superb IRL, but Boldin isn't elite fantasy-wise. The Pretender Jim This team looked wretched when I first looked at it, but is better than some. Still, too weak at RB to contend unless Kevin Smith turns into Curtis Martin. The Pretender Steve Robo-Steve would have drafted better for this last-ranked team. Defense is going to really hurt this team. Needs McFadden to make a quantum leap. My initial thoughts here are:
- When did D1 become the cupcake division? Joe is playoff-bound again.
- Holy crap, D2 is tough. And,
- Joe Sr.'s team sucks. Some things never change.
I have a feeling that even though Rich and JV are top-3 teams, one of us is going to get screwed out of the wild card because Division 2 is going to be a blood bath. Whoever wins that division is definitely going to deserve it. That leaves Boris and Dave as possible wild card contenders, even though they are ranked in the middle of the pack.
Final Thoughts
This is the first year in a while where I thought there were some really poor drafts, and I think that threw things off-kilter a bit and some folks were able to take advantage. As a result, I honestly thought this would be the first year that I was going to come out ranked #2 or 3, even though I base these rankings on my personal opinion of players. I had thought that the snake format and technology of online drafting with ESPN expert rankings had taken care of poor drafting for good, but apparently not. It seems to me that this is a major "changing of the guard" year in the NFL, and maybe this year was just more difficult to predict than those in recent times.
Anyway, that's it! Thanks for reading the ninth anniversary issue of the draft analysis. Good luck to everyone (except Mr. McHugh), and may the best team win (except Mr. McHugh).