Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, 2008 Edition
Let me start by saying I have pared down the written analysis for each position this year. As you might recall, last year I was unemployed and had way too much god damn time on my hands, and it showed. I wrote a novel which took me roughly a week--a feat I never want to duplicate ever again. In exchange for written analysis, I have included GM bios which provide me a new vehicle for smack. Good bathroom material, anyway... enjoy.
Welcome to another year of fantasy football! As always, I (Rich) perform an annual mock draft and analyze the results. No... rather... I draft some players and pick a fantasy. No... wait. I perform an analysis of the fantasy draft and mock other people. Got it right that time. Your team sucks.
A word to the wise: The 2008 Draft Analysis is not for the weak of heart. If you're too sensitive to hear that your team sucks (too late), then stop reading this article now. The fact of the matter is that many people just can't stand hearing that their team is bad, they get really upset, and they tell me in an email to everyone in the league that I'm crazy, that their team is awesome, that my playoff picks are ridiculous, they always say blah blah blah you rank your team too high. I will admit that I do rank my team with some bias, but in 11 seasons I have 5 finals appearances with 2 wins, so suck it long, and suck it hard. I am the smartest man alive.
Anyway, as usual, just swallow your pride when you read this article, and think about what you can do differently next year to turn things around (Joe, I'm looking at you).
OK, done with my preaching. Here we go... without further adieu... for the eighth year running... the Draft Analysis!
General Manager Bios
Rich – International House of Pain
I’m the host of this show and the most dominant force in
fantasy football history. Get your popcorn ready.
Joe – Capitol Punishment
Joe spends the majority of his time training to dodge
RPGs. Before the sun rises, however, you
can find him giving his money away to Chinese FOREX speculators, and blogging
about how to do this most effectively.
Nobody really knows where Joe lives or where he gets his money, and it
is widely assumed that he is actually a CIA spook, freelance assassin, or both
due to his frequent trips to
Joe Sr. – Hostile Takeover
Father to Joe of Capitol Punishment, it is immediately
obvious what side of the family the bad looks came from. Despite this fact, Joe Sr. has somehow
managed a successful career in advertising, presumably because people just buy
whatever he is selling to get him off their property as quickly as
possible. Strangely, Joe Sr. has had
what one might consider a successful fantasy football career, bizarrely, firmly
entrenched in Division 1 even though he has never won a championship and has
survived numerous draft gaffes such as an attempt to select Bob Griese,
100-some years after his retirement.
Vince – Attitude Adjustment
A prior staple of Division 1, Vince found himself amongst
second-class citizens in 2007 after getting booted out the year prior because of
poor performance. To Vince’s credit, he
took full advantage of the weak competition and propelled himself back up to
elite status with a dominant season that was good enough for 2nd place overall. It remains to be seen if he can stick around
in D1, or if he will once again relapse to mediocrity. When he is not watching football, playing
video game football, or coaching football, Vince enjoys the vaginal music of
Tori Amos, poetry about Rick Mahorn, and various home-cooked cuisines such as
the fan-favorite well-done biscuit.
Although he has what one might consider a natural eye for produce
selection, Vince can commonly be found scouring coupon books for deals on
Hostess snack cakes.
Tom – The Dog House
Tom traditionally has the worst team name in the fantasy
football league. This is mainly
attributed to the fact that his primary love in life is Star Wars, and spends
most of his free time with uber geeks who share the same interest, live in
their parents’ basement and therefore have no experience with the outside
world. Tom is married to Vince’s sister,
whom Vince lost to Tom in a bet over what animal made the growls and sounds of
the Rancor in Jabba’s Palace during the filming of Return of the Jedi. In addition to his love for Darth Vader, Tom
enjoys distance running (to and from Star Wars conventions) and pin-up posters
of Tom Brady.
Jason –
Once a formidable athlete and assembly line worker, Jason has
settled on a life of laziness and currently does nothing except watch The Price
is Right and play softball with people twice his age, so that he can still
dominate at something. Strangely, this
lack of activities has not translated to wins in fantasy football, presumably
because Jason is too lazy to turn on his computer for anything other than
searching for Photoshopped nudes of Carrie Underwood. Jason enjoys nothing in life except Mountain
Dew, grilled chicken, pepperoni pizza, and a select few recipes for barbeque
sauce.
Boris – Kooter
Although this individual is known as Boris in “meatspace,” he
prefers to be called Bopuc and can be commonly found on the World of Warcraft
server Feathermoon at almost any time of day.
Thankfully Bopuc married a nurse, who changes his bedpan and replenishes
his intravenous fluids throughout the day while he constantly raids the
Steve – Spread Wide
Nobody really knows who Steve is. He has yet to show his face at a fantasy
football draft, generating suspicion that he was horribly disfigured in a car
accident or that he is actually a woman.
Allegedly, Steve enjoys homoerotic renditions of Star Trek episodes,
Indian food, and/or some combination of both.
Steve claims to work in the auto industry, but it is widely accepted
that this is just a front for a much shadier existence.
Geoff – Midnight Herd of Thundering Marauders
Geoff’s fantasy football performance can best be described as
a roller coaster. Some years he does
extremely well, and some years his Japanese elders are so disappointed with his
team that they encourage him to commit seppuku with deba bocho for dishonoring
his heritage. Geoff grew up an ordinary
American with ordinary American interests, but now finds himself firmly
entrenched in Japanese culture. Geoff
enjoys manga, sushi, Ichiro, bizarre game shows, and can commonly be found in
the high roller areas of the
Dave – Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh
Having a keen eye for style, if Dave was not in love with his
career as an accountant he would surely be a talented and highly sought-after
interior decorator with a specialty in turning Disney-themed beach towels into
window treatments. After developing a
penchant for selecting twelve running backs in the first twelve rounds, Dave
finally decided that the computer was smarter than he was and relented to a
supervised automatic draft, which has greatly improved the quality of his team in
recent years. In his free time, Dave
mostly eats Doritos, plays board games nobody has ever heard of, and watches
Superman Returns over and over and over.
He is also known as a womanizer and a bad guy in general, and cannot be
trusted any farther than you can throw him.
Which is like, zero inches.
Pat “JV” – JV Experience
JV is traditionally not a very strong fantasy football
manager. Up until recently nobody knew
why, but now it is obvious that he spends his free time impregnating teenage
girls. Commonly known for overhyping
certain players known as JV’s boys, JV’s exuberance can also be observed in
other walks of life, such as providing bank robbers with more money than they
asked for. JV enjoys Taco Bell, vehicle
nicknames, beer specials, cult classics, strange music, and nut bread. He recently graduated to the level in Rock
Band where you use the orange button.
Jim – Badass Wolverines
A warm and hearty welcome to Jim, the newest member to the
league. Jim was well known as the Arthur
Fonzerelli of
Quarterbacks
|
|
Presumed
Starter |
Rank |
Backups |
|
Joe |
Kitna |
12 |
Delhomme,
Garcia |
|
Rich |
Romo |
T-2 |
Rodgers,
Young |
|
Joe
Sr. |
Roethlisberger |
6 |
|
|
Vince |
Palmer |
5 |
|
|
Tom |
Brady |
1 |
Pennington |
|
Jason |
|
7 |
Schaub |
|
Boris |
Cutler |
10 |
O'Sullivan |
|
Stevebot |
Hasselbeck |
9 |
Leinart |
|
Geoff |
McNabb |
8 |
Garrard |
|
JV |
Brees |
4 |
Bulger |
|
Dave |
The
Other Manning |
11 |
Rivers,
Edwards |
|
Jim |
Manning |
T-2 |
Favre |
Brady is the clear number 1 until proven otherwise, although it is
unlikely he will duplicate the same kind of insane numbers he put up last
season. I believe that Romo is the
number 2 but out of respect for Manning’s consistency I listed them as a
tie. I struggled with where to rank
Derek Anderson, and ended up sticking Big Ben just over the top of him because
the Browns first team offense has looked anemic in the preseason, and
Running Backs
|
|
Presumed
Starter |
Rank |
Backups |
|
Joe |
Gore,
Grant |
T-3 |
Jacobs,
R.Williams |
|
Rich |
S.Jackson,
Edge |
6 |
White,
Green |
|
Joe
Sr. |
Tomlinson,
Stewart |
8 |
C.Taylor,
D.Williams, K.Jones |
|
Vince |
Smith,
Forte |
11 |
Young,
Hall, C.Johnson, Perry, Alexander |
|
Tom |
J.Lewis,
R.Bush |
10 |
R.Mendenhall,
L.Washington, F.Jackson |
|
Jason |
Addai,
Graham |
5 |
R.Johnson,
McAllister, F.Taylor |
|
Boris |
Peterson,
McGahee |
1 |
Maroney,
Rhodes, Rice |
|
Stevebot |
L.Johnson,
Parker |
9 |
Dunn,
F.Jones |
|
Geoff |
Westbrook,
Jones-Drew |
2 |
|
|
JV |
Lynch,
Turner |
7 |
J.Jones,
Morris, M.Bush |
|
Dave |
Portis,
Barber |
T-3 |
T.Jones |
|
Jim |
Brown,
McFadden |
12 |
Fargas,
|
If Boris didn’t intelligently
handcuff McGahee with Ray Rice, he probably wouldn’t be ranked number 1. But Peterson + Baltimore’s RB combined with
Maroney on the bench is too potent of a combination to ignore. Geoff gets the nod at number 2 with Westbrook
and Jones-Drew, although he has no depth.
Westbrook has been too consistent and dominant for the past two seasons
to not give him his due, and Jones-Drew is a solid of a #2 back as any in the
league. Tied at #3 are Joe with Grant
and Gore, and Dave with Portis and Barber.
Truthfully I could have made this a three-way tie at the 2 spot but
Westbrook has the superstar power that these combinations lack.
Rounding out the next tier is
Jason at number 5 and Rich at number 6.
On Jason’s squad we have Addai who is perhaps the most sure-thing pick
at RB in the draft, and Graham who is coming off a breakout performance in
2007. Jason also has tremendous depth
with Rudi Johnson, Deuce McAllister, and Fragile Freddie on the bench. On Rich’s roster sits Steven Jackson and
Edgerrin James. Steven Jackson is an
obvious injury concern given his struggles last year and his holdout which
recently ended, but his potential is enormous.
Edge is a fine #2 back who has zero competition for carries, and
although he is obviously near retirement the line is improved and he likely has
a season left in the tank.
We then find ourselves at #7 with
JV’s backfield of Lynch and Turner.
Lynch’s talent is undeniable, but Turner’s situation is a giant question
mark since he is stuck in a crappy offense with a crappy line. He could put up numbers by virtue of his
talent alone, but it’s a definite risk.
Next at #8 is Joe Sr. who couldn’t have messed up worse after nabbing
Tomlinson with the number one pick. He
“compliments” LT with a complete unknown commodity in Jonathan Stewart, who is
suffering through a toe injury that is likely to linger all season long (not to
mention surely shared carries in
Rounding out the bottom four we
have Stevebot, Tom, Vince, and Jim. None
of these guys have two legitimate, proven players in their backfield. Stevebot has Larry Johnson who has yet to
proven he’s not broken forever, and Willie Parker who is going to lose all goal
line touches to Mendenhall. Tom has
Jamal Lewis as a fine #1, but the ever-frustrating Reggie Bush at #2 who will
lose touches to McAllister and can’t break off a run longer than three yards. Vince has the all-rookie backfield in Smith
and Forte—two young guys who are playing behind crappy lines. His only hope is that Selvin Young pans out
in
Wide Receivers
|
|
Presumed
Starter |
Rank |
Backups |
|
Joe |
Marshall,
Cotchery |
T-11 |
Bruce,
Stallworth, Walter |
|
Rich |
C.Johnson,
Holt |
4 |
Burleson,
Gage |
|
Joe
Sr. |
A.Johnson,
Chambers |
T-6 |
Henry,
V.Jackson |
|
Vince |
R.Moss,
Owens |
1 |
White |
|
Tom |
Edwards,
Bowe |
T-6 |
Driver,
Berrian |
|
Jason |
Wayne,
Welker |
T-2 |
Crayton,
|
|
Boris |
Fitzgerald,
Evans |
T-6 |
|
|
Stevebot |
Boldin,
R.Williams |
5 |
Rice,
Curtis |
|
Geoff |
Colston,
Burress |
T-2 |
Holmes,
Gonzalez, B.Johnson |
|
JV |
Coles,
Ca.Johnson |
T-11 |
S.Moss,
Mason, Hardy |
|
Dave |
Harrison,
Smith |
T-9 |
Ginn,
Bennett, Brown, Clayton, |
|
Jim |
Houshmandzadeh,
Ward |
T-9 |
McDonald |
Wide Receivers were nearly
impossible to rank this year since Vince snagged the top two guys and doomed
most of the rest of our receiving corps to mediocrity. That said, we’ll make a run at this anyway.
As I just mentioned, Vince snagged
Moss and Owens to make up the #1 WR corps in the league. Such dominance at the position has not been
seen in fantasy football since I used my top two picks to acquire the exact
same lineup in 2002 and got dominated by God and everybody. Good luck, Vince.
After that we start the
two-way-tie mess, the first being between Jason and Geoff. Would you rather have Colston and Burress or
Wayne and Welker? Coin flip.
Next we have Rich at #4 with Chad
Johnson and Torry Holt, and Stevebot at #5 with Boldin and Roy Williams. What can you really say about this? Good receivers. Hooray.
I like the big-play potential of Johnson and Holt as opposed to the
possession receiver role that Boldin and Williams are assuming on their
respective teams.
I’m not even going to write up the
rest of this section, with the exception of Joe vs. JV tied at #11. Don’t get me wrong, I like Marshall and
Cotchery. However,
Tight Ends
|
|
Presumed
Starter |
Rank |
Backups |
|
Joe |
Winslow |
3 |
Carlson |
|
Rich |
H.Miller |
8 |
Scheffler |
|
Joe
Sr. |
|
10 |
Utecht |
|
Vince |
|
1 |
Crumpler |
|
Tom |
Gates |
2 |
Keller |
|
Jason |
Olsen |
12 |
Boss |
|
Boris |
Cooley |
6 |
Smith |
|
Stevebot |
Heap |
9 |
Z.Miller |
|
Geoff |
Daniels |
11 |
McMichael |
|
JV |
|
5 |
Lewis |
|
Dave |
Shockey |
7 |
|
|
Jim |
Gonzalez |
4 |
Watson,
Doo-Da Donald Lee |
Similar to the QB rankings, there
aren’t a lot of surprises here. Maybe
one in respect to
Defense/Special Teams
|
|
Presumed
Starter |
Rank |
Backups |
|
Joe |
Titans |
11 |
Redskins |
|
Rich |
Patriots |
3 |
Panthers |
|
Joe
Sr. |
Vikings |
1 |
Bills |
|
Vince |
Ravens |
9 |
Eagles |
|
Tom |
Chargers |
2 |
Seahawks |
|
Jason |
Buccaneers |
8 |
49ers |
|
Boris |
Steelers |
7 |
|
|
Stevebot |
Da
Bears |
5 |
Browns |
|
Geoff |
Packers |
10 |
Cardinals |
|
JV |
Colts |
12 |
Broncos |
|
Dave |
Jaguars |
6 |
|
|
Jim |
Giants |
4 |
Cowboys |
Since I always freely
admit that I know next to nothing about evaluating team defenses, I commonly
defer to a source with more expertise than I have to do so. That said, I like the Patriots defense better
than all others this season due to the fact that they have the easiest schedule
in the NFL. Out of fairness, however, I
gave Minnesota and San Diego their respective dues by maintaining them at #1
and 2, moving the Pats down to #3, and then rolling with the Pro Football
Weekly D/ST rankings almost verbatim after that other than moving Tennessee up
a few notches. If I could rank Jim
higher in this category I would since he has two great Ds, but alas you can
only start one per week.
Final Quantitative Draft Analysis
|
|
QB |
RB |
WR |
TE |
DEF |
Average |
Weighted |
Rank |
|
Rich |
T-2 |
6 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
4.6 |
1.2 |
1 |
|
Tom |
1 |
10 |
T-6 |
2 |
2 |
4.2 |
3.3 |
2 |
|
Boris |
10 |
1 |
T-6 |
6 |
7 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
3 |
|
Geoff |
8 |
2 |
T-2 |
11 |
10 |
6.6 |
5.4 |
4 |
|
Jason |
7 |
5 |
T-2 |
12 |
8 |
6.8 |
5.7 |
5 |
|
Joe Sr. |
6 |
8 |
T-6 |
10 |
1 |
6.2 |
6.1 |
6 |
|
Dave |
11 |
T-3 |
T-9 |
7 |
6 |
7.2 |
6.3 |
7 |
|
Vince |
5 |
11 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
5.4 |
8.4 |
8 |
|
Joe |
12 |
T-3 |
T-11 |
3 |
11 |
8.0 |
10.0 |
9 |
|
Jim |
T-2 |
12 |
T-9 |
4 |
4 |
6.2 |
10.2 |
10 |
|
Stevebot |
9 |
9 |
5 |
9 |
5 |
7.4 |
10.5 |
11 |
|
JV |
4 |
7 |
T-11 |
5 |
12 |
7.8 |
11.3 |
12 |
Divisional Predictions
|
Division
1 |
The
Favorite |
Rich |
The
strongest team at the right positions with biggest weakness at TE. Some concern surrounding the #1 pick in
Steven Jackson which could ruin IHOP’s season, but in good shape otherwise
with limited risks. |
|
|
The
Contender |
Joe Sr.
|
Aside
from the back that the #2 RB is a question mark, there isn’t a lot you can
say that’s negative about this team.
Of course there is always the risk that Tomlinson will follow in the
footsteps of other 29-year-old marquee RBs and fold, he gets the benefit of
the doubt. |
|
|
The
Dark Horse |
Vince |
RBs on
this team are suspect at best. Rookie
RBs usually run out of gas by mid-season, and Selvin Young cannot be relied
upon. That said, if Moss and Owens can
generate 30+ TDs, Vince still has a shot to contend. |
|
|
The
Pretender |
Joe |
I
usually rank Joe down here just to piss him off but I really believe this is
the season he drops out of D1 after running this analysis. He is just too weak at every position other
than RB and TE. WRs are risky and a
slow start to the season could doom him. |
|
Division
2 |
The
Favorite |
Tom |
Tom had
the 2nd strongest draft this year, and you could make the argument that it
was better than mine. If Brady even
comes close to last year’s numbers, you can shoo Tom in for a title run. That said, QBs have historically fallen off
after career-defining seasons. |
|
|
The Contender |
Boris |
Boris
had a great draft, but QB is his weakest position in an NFL where parity
reigns between RBs and WRs. That said,
if Cutler can accelerate his growth quickly and throw the 30 TDs that he is
capable of doing, this can be nullified.
|
|
|
The
Contender |
Jason |
Competition
is stiff in D2 as Jason showed up with a quality draft as well. He has a strong team that is average at
worst at all positions except TE, which generates the least points of all
positions anyway. Jason has a real
chance to win this division or snag the wild card. |
|
|
The Pretender
|
Stevebot |
Auto-draft
was not kind to Steve, and doomed him to a rough season with an average
roster against difficult division opponents.
I would be incredibly surprised if Steve could put together a .500 season
with this team. |
|
Division
3 |
The
Favorite |
Geoff |
Geoff
put together a strong draft even though he was breastfeeding his baby during
rounds two and three. Defense could be
a concern here, and McNabb at QB is a scary proposition. But if GB can beat up on the NFC North and
McNabb can stay healthy, look out. |
|
|
The
Contender |
Dave |
Although
weak at QB and WR, RBs are explosive and will win some games by
themselves. If Shockey can stay
healthy, he might be a tremendous force in the Saints offense. Division 3 is weak aside from Geoff and
Dave could finish 5-1 here. |
|
|
The Pretender |
Jim |
Jim is
obviously strong at QB with Manning, but is hurting at RB and WR which
obviously spells trouble. Will need to
cling to the hope that McFadden is the 2nd coming of Bo Jackson, and that
Brown regains the starting position in |
|
|
The
Pretender |
JV |
Sporting
the weakest roster in the league, JV is going to have a rough time making any
sort of noise this season. Brees is
solid, but otherwise this roster needs help.
Calvin Johnson will have to pan out as a dominant force and Turner
needs to be better than advertised for JV to contend. Defense is suspect and JV will have to find
help here. |
Final Thoughts
As usual, I am
surprised at how the numerical analysis panned out. Sometimes when you look at your own roster or
other rosters based off name recognition alone you don’t come away with the
whole picture. At any rate, I hope you
enjoyed this year’s analysis. Good luck
and may the best team win. VIVA LA IHOP!