Rich's Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis, v.2007-CLUE (Carelessly Long Unemployed Edition)

Take this one to the bathroom with you--it's a doozy. I have to find a way to cut this back next year.

Welcome to another year of fantasy football!  As always, I (Rich) perform an annual mock draft and analyze the results. No... rather... I draft some players and pick a fantasy. No... wait. I perform an analysis of the fantasy draft and mock other people. Got it right that time. Your team sucks.

A word to the wise: The 2007 Draft Analysis is not for the weak of heart. If you're too sensitive to hear that your team sucks (too late), then stop reading this article now. The fact of the matter is that many people just can't stand hearing that their team is bad, they get really upset, and they tell me in an email to everyone in the league that I'm crazy, that their team is awesome, that my playoff picks are ridiculous, they always say blah blah blah you rank your team too high.  Well I've got news for you guys: In the 2003 Draft Analysis, I picked 3 out of 4 playoff teams correctly, and in the 2004 Draft Analysis I went 4 for 4, even correctly pinning down the wild card.  2005 was an off year, but I was back on track in 2006 with a perfect 3/3 in division winners and also slated Vince as a playoff contender in his division. I will admit that I do rank my team with some bias, but in 10 seasons I have 5 finals appearances with 2 wins, so suck it long, and suck it hard. I am the smartest man alive.

Anyway, as usual, just swallow your pride when you read this article, and think about what you can do differently next year to turn things around (Joe, I'm looking at you).

OK, done with my preaching. Here we go... without further adieu... for the seventh year running... the Draft Analysis!

Quarterbacks

• (1) Boris - Nothing to see here. Please move along. Peyton Manning is the easiest pick in fantasy football year in and year out. If he was a running back, he'd be the consensus #1. But due to his position ailment, he dropped all the way to pick 12. A gross injustice, one would think, for a man who has scored no lower then 7th overall in total fantasy points for seven years running. Manning is never injured and rarely, if never, has a single-digit outing. So this was a great pick, right? I guess that depends on your perspective. Boris got the best QB in fantasy football but his RBs suffered badly as a result, since he didn't have another pick after Manning until #36. Take heed: Cadillac Williams as your #2 RB is the lofty price you pay for the pleasure of fielding Peyton Manning. On to backups, not like GM Boris is ever going to need these guys, but they are basically average replacements in the event of a bye or an injury. Jake Delhomme is capable of some big games and should be serviceable if he can hold on to his job, and Jason Campbell... well... is this a keeper league? I know he was Mr. Irrelevant in the draft, but he wouldn't have been my choice. Kind of a waste of a roster spot if you ask me.
• (2) Geoff - Carson Palmer is the best value at the QB position. Capable of surpassing Manning in total fantasy points in any given season, it is ludicrous to think that Palmer fell 11 picks after Manning, and was selected after both Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Former GM of the Year Geoff Johnson must have been giddy to have Palmer fall into his lap, and was smart to select the QB where he did. Unlike drafting Peyton Manning, the price of drafting Palmer at #23 overall is not that steep, and there were RBs such as Edge and Jones-Drew available thereafter. True, former GM of the Year Geoff Johnson opted against selecting either one of these guys, but that's neither here nor there for this portion of the analysis. Moving along, the backup selected to relieve Carson Palmer in the event of a bye week or injury is none other than Rex Grossman. This is a scary proposition at best. GM Geoff is obviously hoping that week 5 is one of Grossman's 25 point weeks as opposed to his infamous -5 point weeks.
• (Tie-3) Joe Sr. - You can't go wrong with Drew Brees as your quarterback, but why you would select him over Carson Palmer is curious. While the Bengals have an established, dominating offense, the Saints have only been producing for a year now and lost their veteran leadership at the WR position (Joe Horn) to Atlanta. But I digress--this is about Drew Brees. Selection position criticism aside, it is hard to argue with 4,400 passing yards and 26 TDs. Will Brees duplicate these numbers in 2007? Maybe. I believe he will put up top-5 numbers again, but a lot of his success will depend on how well Marques Colston adapts to becoming the #1 receiver, and how Henderson and Copper perform in full-time roles now that they no longer possess the element of surprise. Luckily the Saints run game is an even bigger threat than it was last year, so Brees won't be facing Kitna-like pressure even with those gaudy numbers. In the backup slots we have Matt Schaub and Trent Green, who are two question marks with different stories. Will Matt Schaub live up to the hype of being the answer for Houston? Or is he the latest AJ Feely, living off a reputation of two NFL starts? And even if he is the second coming, will that offensive line limit him--maybe severely? Former Texan David Carr has looked pretty good down in Carolina this preseason (or as Jason has said, when he is allowed to stand). I assume that the with the selection of Trent Green, GM Joe Sr. was going for age and experience--a couple characteristics he knows something about. Green is coming off a severe concussion that many analysts are saying he may never fully recover from, and in NFL years at 37 he is approaching ancient (which would make Vinny Testaverde Father Time, but again...I digress). Of course this selection cannot really be criticized since he is the #3 QB on the depth chart, so we look at Green in a positive light. That is, nothing to lose here, and plenty of up-side if Green can return to former-concussed form.
• (Tie-3) Steve - I don't think I have ever forecasted a tie in the QB rankings, but I just couldn't bring myself to rank Tom Brady higher than Drew Brees or vice-versa. Maybe I'm losing my edge. Maybe you should shut up. Anyway, After a disappointing campaign (by Tom Brady standards) in 2006, Tom Brady looks to bounce back with a host of new receivers in 2007. Brady has never had a weapon like Randy Moss, should Moss ever actually show up to play. The good news is that even if he doesn't, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth are a vast improvement over last year's starting joke of a duo, and the highly acclaimed Ben Watson is one year wiser. Brady has always had the potential to be top passer in the league, and it's really easy to find yourself hopping on the bandwagon that he will have a career year and lead all passers. I'm not so sure that's exactly attainable given the nature of the league these days, but I do fully expect Brady to return to 4,000 yard and 27(ish) TD form, providing the same type of numbers as Drew Brees in New Orleans. I am mad that I can't find a way to make a joke about supermodels and babies here. Oh well. Backing up Brady on this squad is Matt Leinart, who is about a solid of a backup as you could hope for without mortgaging the farm. Leinart is ranked as a top-12 passer by many talking heads, and given the state of quarterbacks in the league after the top five are off the board, and given the weapons at Leinart's disposal, it's hard to disagree with that sentiment. Should Brady ever go down, GM Steve should feel confident about starting this reserve talent. I am mad that I can't find a way to make a joke about Paris Hilton here. Maybe I've got one. Who do you think will take more shots to the chin this year? Matt Leinart or Paris Hilton? Hmm... maybe that one's a snoozer.
• (5) Jason - Rounding out the top five--and the bottom of QB Tier 1--is Marc Bulger. With the way the Rams offense is drawn up, Bulger is a virtual lock for 4000 yards passing. And while he never really dazzles in the TD column (usually the low 20s), he has seemingly cut down his interceptions to ludicrously low levels so it doesn't really matter. In 588 attempts last season, Bulger threw only 8 picks. It really boggles the mind. If Bulger can find a way to start getting the ball into the end zone a bit more, say, for 28 or more scores... well, those are Manning numbers. And if there were ever a season when he was primed to do so, it's this one. Along with Ram veteran receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, St. Louis added the talented TE Randy McMichael and WR Drew Bennett to the mix. And let's not forget that Steven Jackson is still around, keeping defenses honest. So, the table is set for a career year. Will Bulger feast? We shall see. For now he remains ranked below Manning, Palmer, Brees, and Brady until he manages to at least threaten the magical 30 TD mark. Backing up Bulger on this team is Baltimore quarterback Steve McNair, who has seen better days. Although a fine backup to go to in a pinch, the guy hasn't thrown for more than 16 TDs in three seasons running. Granted there is only a finite amount of talent out there, but Bulger does have a bit of an injury history and you would like to see a reserve here with a little more bite.
• (6) Rich - Jon Kitna, although not a spectacular talent, has the distinct pleasure of playing QB for the mad scientist of the air attack, Mike Martz. Kitna was the 6th highest scoring QB in the league least year, and barring injury he's a lock for another 4,000+ yard season. Also, you have to figure he will improve in the TD category with another year in the offense and with the addition of rookie phenom Calvin Johnson, who should produce red zone TD grabs immediately with his freakish skill set. With those kinds of projections you can live with the high amount of picks given where Kitna was selected in the draft (#62). It is value you want at that spot, after all, and McNabb was selected thirty picks earlier. In fact, both Romo and Young were selected ahead of Kitna as well, for reasons unknown to people living outside of Ypsilanti. Guarantees are the name of the game in fantasy football, and again, barring injury, Kitna is a guaranteed top producer in the Lions pass-happy offense. As for backups, GM Rich took a big risk here in selecting Daunte Culpepper as his only option. While I firmly believe that Culpepper will be named the starter in Oakland, it was foolish to not grab a reliable backup to Kitna as well. A hearty dose of regret might be in the future as the waiver wire is being scoured for an option should Culpepper's comeback attempt falter.
• (7) Joe Jr. - Donovan McNabb is perhaps the only person in the world injured more than I am. Or maybe that's Brian Westbrook. Hmm... maybe the Eagles should check their water supply. But seriously, Donovan McNabb has not played a full season in four of the last five years. Perhaps that is why GM Joe (GI Joe?) also drafted Matt Hasselbeck in the 8th round as an insurance policy. Nevertheless, McNabb is always a force to be reckoned with when he is healthy, and if he showed any consistency in this regard he would be ranked ahead of Kitna. But sadly, this is not the case. McNabb is coming off a torn ACL that he suffered last season, and is looking to pull a Carson Palmer on us all and prove that not even a blowed-out knee can stop him. I have no doubt that he can pull this off, but at what point will he get injured again? Will he even last 10 games? If history is any indication, GI Joe can kiss his third round pick goodbye in November. Now, as mentioned previously, Matt Hasselbeck is not exactly a slouch at backup. In fact, GI Joe's team was the only squad awarded an A at the backup QB position, and for good reason. Hasselbeck is a proven top-10 QB, and can be counted on for 3,400 yards and 22-24 touchdowns. These aren't spectacular numbers, but they are above-average and very serviceable, and actually on-par with many league starters.
• (8) Tom - Philip Rivers has been called, by some analysts, the best value in fantasy football for 2006. Obiously they have never visited our league where Kitna drops all the way to #62, but truth be told I was actually targeting Rivers in this draft. While Rivers isn't a guy who is going to put up huge yardage or 30 TDs, that's OK when you're not throwing interceptions. The knock on Rivers is that as the 2006 season progressed his completion percentage went down (it became obvious that Gates was his primary target on every passing down), but I expect that to change with the emergence of Vincent Jackson this year. Some people believe that Jackson is a disappointment waiting to happen, but I have liked what I have seen from the guy and think he will help Rivers return to 65% completion form, such was the case for the first three months of 2006. And don't forget, the other X-Factor here is that Norv Turner is back with the Chargers, and Turner seems to always assist in the development of young QBs (see: Aikman historically, and Alex Smith last season). Backing up Rivers is the injury machine Chad Pennington. Practically guaranteed to not last the length of the season, GM Tom must be hoping that he can at least make it until week 7 when Rivers is on the bye. Provided that doesn't happen (I give it 50/50), Jeff Garcia is waiting in the wings for his chance to be Tom's #2. Many thought Garcia's career was over after poor performances in 2004 and 5 (being sent to QB purgatory in Cleveland and Detroit), but he proved he still had something left in the tank by putting up a few stellar performances in Philly last season after Donovan McInjury went down with an ACL tear. For his reward, he finds himself back in QB purgatory with Tampa Bay, where he will likely live out the rest of his short quarterbacking years in hell on earth.
• (9) Vince - GM Vince selected Tony Homo Romo in the fifth round, and opened up a season-long pandora's box of homosexual wisecracks in his direction for the duration of the season. Of course, I cannot help myself in the least and the fun starts here. While the Homo does have potential to put up big numbers, his interceptions have got to be a huge concern and leave me scratching my head as to why he was selected so high in the draft. In Homo's last five starts, he threw eight picks. I am pretty sure Vince is expecting this trend to settle down--after all, in Homo's five previous starts he threw 10 TDs and only five picks--but still, 13 picks in 337 attempts is pretty ugly. Projected over a full season that could hit 20, and then you're approaching Grossman territory. Still, I am at least slightly in the Vince camp in thinking that Homo will tone it down and have a good season with less mistakes, but that doesn't get him ranked any higher than 9 in my book, even with the fantastic receivers at his disposal. Finally, I am mad that I can't find a way to make a joke about Jessica Simpson here except for that she looks like John Travolta with tits. And maybe that was the attraction for Tony Homo. Backing up the Homo is an even sketchier QB, L.P. Losman. To put it bluntly, I'd rather have Damon Huard on my squad than this guy. 3,000 yards, 19 TDs and 17 picks is no way to go through life, son. Let's not forget the fumbles. And frankly, I don't see those numbers improving much. I don't think this guy will ever be the answer in Buffalo, and come 2009 he will probably go the way of the Harringtons and Carrs of the world.
• (10) JV - One word seems to always come up when people start talking about Jay Cutler... "upside." While it has been well documented that potential gets you fired, whether or not it makes you lose fantasy games is undetermined. What we do know is that Cutler is everyone's sleeper pick at QB this year, and he finished off 2006 fairly strong for a rookie, throwing 9 TD passes and 5 interceptions over a period of five games. Now, with an offseason under his belt and surrounded by playmakers, everyone expects Cutler to improve in 2007. That said, maybe next season we will see Cutler ranked as high as 6 or 7, but until then he will have to earn it. The fact remains that he is a second-year QB and will likely produce some tough fantasy games to swallow until he matures a bit more. GM JV knew this when he selected the dude, and was smart enough to bring in Brett Favre as a solid reserve in case the Cutler experiment gets off to a rocky start. So, what can you say about Brett Favre that hasn't already been said for the past 60 years he's been in the league? The guy is as old as the hills and still never misses a start, and it doesn't really seem like his skills are diminishing that much. He's still a threat to throw for 4000 yards and 20 scores every season. It's really kind of preposterous. The guy could rack up 1000 yards on the Lions alone this season.
• (11) Wyly - In my mind, Vince Young is rated entirely too high in the fantasy rankings this year. I have seen him listed as high as #7 on the QB charts, and that is just plain silly. Unfortunately for GM Joe Wyly, it seems that he, too, has bought into the silliness, selecting Young in the fourth round as the seventh quarterback overall. A more appropriate ranking for this young talent is around #12, which is where GM Wyly's QB ranking would be instead of at #11 if not for that fact that I think Eli Manning blows goats. So what is wrong with VY? Glad you asked. For starters, the guy threw for 101 yards or less in four games last year. And 13 picks in 184 attempts? Are you kidding me? That is unfathomably bad. True, the guy made up for it with 7 rushing TDs which included some big gainers, but my guess is that this year defenses will adapt and those opportunities will decline. I don't even want to hear the dissent on this point--the guy is a good runner, but he does not have Michael Vick escapability (insert joke of Vick not being able to escape from The Law here) and he will be contained to an extent. Combine this with the fact that VY lost his best receiver to St. Louis and you are looking at a rough ride. I know the dude has had a good preseason against vanilla defenses and whatnot, I just don't expect Young's fantasy numbers to improve in 2007. Plus the dude is on the cover of Madden '08 which means disaster is pending. It's like the Revelations of the NFL. The moon will turn to blood and so will Vince Young's ankle. You have been warned. Backing up Young is another question mark in Alex Smith. There are a lot of high hopes for this guy in San Francisco, but whether he will take the next leap as an NFL quarterback is yet to be determined, and the loss of Norv Turner only makes this point more questionable. The good news for Smith is that the Niners added Darrell Jackson to give him a real #1 target, but if the guy can't crack 3,000 yards and continues to throw low amounts of TDs and high amounts of interceptions, he's not much of a fantasy option. I don't even want to talk about Wyly's other QB, Brady Quinn. Maybe I'll mention something about him next year when he might be relevant to fantasy discussion. Plus it makes me all warm and fuzzy inside to know that this just pisses him right off. :)
• (12) Davebot - The punishment you get for not showing up to the draft is a season of Eli Manning at quarterback. Eli makes a fine fantasy reserve, but as a starter? No thank you. Granted this is only his third season as a full timer, but I have no interest in a guy who regressed as a passer from 2005 to 2006, lost the best player on his offense to retirement during the offseason, who makes it his policy to disappear for an entire month during the fantasy season, and who threw for fewer than 190 yards nine times last season. Note to you: Do not trade for Eli Manning, because regardless of what the stats look like, come November or December the law of averages will catch up with him and he will start to suck. That's a guarantee. I don't know if it's the New York pressure that gets to him or what, but Eli always fails the Giants (and your fantasy team) at the worst possible time. Backing up Manning (maybe) is Big Ben Roethlisberger, whom I hate because I always have to look up the spelling of his stupid last name. Ben regressed as a passer immensely last season also, tossing 23 balls to the opposition--three more than his previous two seasons combined. Breaking it down, In 2004 and 2005 he attempted 295 and 268 passes, with 11 and 9 interceptions, respectively. In 2006, he threw 23 interceptions on 469 attempts. Simplified, 2004: 1 pick per 27 attempts, 2005: 1 pick per 30 attempts, and 2006: 1 pick per 20 attempts. Steelers fans, and GM Dave, have to hope last season is an abberation. I'm not so sure it is. I'm not so sure you can blame these numbers on a motorcycle accident and an appendectomy. More like, he was no longer coddled with 1-option, scripted pass plays and that's the result you get. If this is truly the case, GM Dave will be panicking for a QB sometime mid-season.

Running Backs

• (1) Rich - So, this is where the bias always comes in. But truthfully, I don't see another team with a more complete backfield and positioned myself in the draft to nail this position. I know it might seem ridiculous to rate a backfield with LT at #2, but Benson just blows. More on that later. With Travis Henry and Laurence Maroney, you get two very dangerous options. Beginning with Travis Henry, this is a guy with serious talent who has been getting the shaft since Buffalo drafted Willis McGahee for some stupid reason. Henry is a 4+ yard per carry back with a history of running for 1,200 to 1,400 on teams who aren't necessarily known for their offense, and now he finds himself in Denver where they make 1,000 yard rushers out of nobodies. That adds up to a serious shot at 15 or 1,600 yards on the ground and a touchdown per game if Henry can stay healthy. That, of course, is the risk involved with drafting Henry--he does have somewhat of an injury history--but the potential rewards are too great. When you get a shot at taking a guy who could finish as a top-5 back with the 11th pick, you've gotta take the shot. That said, it would have been smart for GM Rich to back this guy up by drafting Mike Bell, but Joe Sr. selected him much too early in the draft when there were still starting backs available (WEIRD), so GM Rich missed out. But no, I'm not bitter. Furthermore, GM Rich could have avoided this whole predicament by drafting the safe option in Willie Parker, but the occasional bad game by Parker in 2006 was wnough to make him shy away. Moving on to Laurence Maroney, you really couldn't ask for a better #2 back. Maroney has the perfect opportunity to blow up in New England, and projecting last year's stats over the course of a full season, you're looking at almost 2,000 total yards and 14 TDs. Maroney runs hard (maybe too hard...he also is an injury concern), and had multiple 20+ yard gains over the course of the 2006 season. Maroney is backed up on this roster with the #2 RB on the New England depth chart Sammy Morris as insurance, unlike the aforementioned Mike Bell fiasco. Rounding out the RBs on this team we have a couple more part-time backs. Julius Jones is an adequate 3rd RB who should log roughly 1,000 yards and 5 TDs--a fine RB to utilize on bye weeks. Some teams in the league have starters who may barely exceed these totals, so you've gotta like him as a reserve. Additionally, a rumor is circulating that the coaching staff intends to utilize Jones in the red zone a bit more this season, so it's feasible that this TD total might look more like 8 or 9 come the end of this season. As for Tatum Bell, the jury is still out as to how much time he will see during the season but it is evident he will be splitting carries in some fashion. He could end up being the starter for the duration of the season or for a portion, dependent on how well Kevin Jones recovers from his injury. Still, as a #4 RB you can afford to take a flier on this type of guy, especially when you have at least one of your starters handcuffed to his backup. Even if Tatum Bell sees a lot of playing time, he will probably still never crack the starting lineup of this squad.
• (2) Jason - GM Jason won the LaDainian Tomlinson lottery by acquiring the first pick in the draft. Much later, he even managed to back him up with Michael Turner, a real #1 option should LT go down at some point. Tomlinson is an incredible talent, and his 2006 production equaled that of most teams' two starting RBs. So why isn't this backfield rated number one overall? Well, my reasoning begins with the expectation that LT's record-setting scoring pace won't continue, but rather fall back to relatively human levels--say, 2,000 total yards and 20 TDs as opposed to almost 2,500 yards and 31 TDs. That still makes him the consensus number one running back, but it doesn't elevate your RB tandem to #1 overall just based on his presence. Now, my reasoning ends with Jason's second starter at RB. Unfortunately, the heavy price of selecting in the first draft position is that you get stuck with RB leftovers when the snake gets back to you at pick #24, and sadly, those leftovers this season equated to Cedric Benson. I really don't have one good thing to say about this dude, and firmly believe that Chicago traded the wrong running back in the offseason. So far this preseason, Benson has averaged a paltry 2.4 yards per carry. To make matters worse, this figure is based on a significant number of carries--not two or three per game. As an example, take the preseason week 3 game against the 49ers. Now, the Niners are not really renowned for their stout run defense, but they managed to hold Benson to 33 yards on 19 carries. An abberation? No. In week 2, Benson was held to 24 yards on 10 carries by the Colts defense. So, unless something changes drastically with this guy, GM Jason is in for a long season unless (until?) DeShaun Foster gets injured and DeAngelo Williams receives a full load in Carolina. It's funny to think how an injury of a guy could catapult GM Jason to having the top league backfield, but it appears to be true. DeAngelo Williams is a true talent, just waiting to break out. It is unfortunate that Carolina insists on keeping Foster around, stealing carries from their more explosive back, but thems the breaks. Finally, the last RB gracing this roster is Najeh Davenport, essentially just a flier in the event that Willie Parker gets injured this season.
• (3) Davebot - Robodave got an early Christmas present when freakshow Larry Johnson dropped to him at pick five. Johnson has ran for over 3,500 yards over the past two seasons and racked up 35 TDs in the same period, and has another 700 some receiving yards mixed in there to boot. So what could possibly go wrong?? Well, the question is how much does this guy have left in the tank? Larry J eclipsed the mythical 400 carry mark last season, an experience only survived by 7% of all running backs who have lived to tell the tale. Truth be told, if history is any indication Larry Johnson will suffer a miserable injury this season or experience a dramatic drop in production. I'm not sure if I believe the prophecy or not, but if I was in Davebot's position I would have selected him at #5 as well. The talent is just too huge to pass up. And it's not like the guy was on the cover of Madden '08 or anything (see: Vince Young). But still, all curses must be taken into consideration, and that moves this RB group down to #3. The second RB of this team's tandem is Clinton Portis, who in any other year would have been a top-12 pick. Unfortunately for Portis, his injury last year made way for the Ladell Betts show, and now the coach allegedly intends to split the time of these two fine running backs. That doesn't bode well for GM Dave should this actually occur, and all reports out of Warshington indicate it will. That said, Portis is still a force to be reckoned with even with 250 carries, and should still post numbers in the 1,100 yard range with roughly 10 TDs. Moving on to backups, Davebot is perhaps smarter than Fleshdave, as it managed to grab both Ladell Betts and Michael Bennett, the front-line backups to his starting RBs. Davebot did go a little overboard, however, and selected an additional three RBs: Correll Buckhalter, the Chicago variety of Adrian Peterson, and Anthony Thomas. Correll Buckhalter will probably not contribute much to this team, even in the event of a Westbrook injury. Buckhalter has enough problems staying off the injury report, and isn't very explosive to begin with. Adrian Peterson might be an interesting pickup, should Benson be unable to pick up the pace in Chicago. Peterson has been running well in the preseason, and although Bears coach Lovie Smith has been known to be stubborn, a viable running game when you are a defense-oriented team isn't something you can afford to lack for long. As for Anthony Thomas, well, Thomas is simply a below-average RB and shouldn't be expected to overtake Lynch in Buffalo even if Lynch fails to impress.
• (4) Vince - With the seventh pick in the draft, GM Vince intelligently selected running back Brian Westbrook of Philadelphia. Although Westbrook is always, always injured, he still seems to manage to play most of the season and always has the potential to put up big numbers when he does. Take last year, for example. In 14 starts, Westbrook racked up over 1,900 yards and had 11 touchdowns--making him the 6th highest scoring running back in the league. If this guy could manage to stay healthy for the duration of the season, he could easily be a top-3 back... especially with a healthy Donovan McNabb. That said, you cannot discount the injuries and therefore you cannot rank him much higher. The bottom line is that Westbrook is an excellent addition to your fantasy team as long as you don't mind assuming a certain amount of risk and have the time to check the injury report every Sunday morning. Rounding out the starting two backs on this team is the underrated, underappreciated Thomas Jones, who is poised for a big season in New York (the Jet variety). Given that he accumulated almost 1,400 yards in split time last season, you would have to expect at least the same, if not more, playing for the Jets. Look for Jones to manage 1,500 total yards and 9 or 10 TDs--an excellent amount of production for a #2 RB. GM Vince has one of the stronger reserve backfields to start the season, beginning with Packers starter Brandon Jackson as the #3 on his depth chart. Jackson is everyone's sleeper at RB this season, now that Morency has pretty much backed himself out of contention for anything more than a relief role in Green Bay. Jackson has had his ups and downs during the preseason in terms of yardage production, but has shown enough to indicate that he is talented and has the ability to carry the load for his team. Jackson should serve GM Vince well in a reserve role. In the #4 slot sits Panthers shared-time starter DeShaun Foster. Foster will be an adequate emergency running back should Jackson not be available until he gets injured, which I believe has been the case in each year of his NFL career. But that said, until that happens, Foster always has the potential to put up a decent game yardage-wise because the Carolina coaching staff is too bullheaded to make DeAngelo Williams their go-to guy.
• (5) Geoff - Steven Jackson is a fantastic talent whose numbers are benefitted/inflated by being the main man on an explosive Rams offense. He's young, he's dangerous, he can do it all, and there's no reason to think he won't put up 2006-type numbers again. That is, 2,300 total yards and 16 TDs. The Ram receivers are just too dangerous for defenses to key on Jackson, and the coaches will continue to exploit this. It is very possible that Jackson could end up the #1 RB in the league this season, should LT not continue his ridiculous, record-setting pace. There really isn't anything not to like about this guy, as 100+ yard games are a regularity and he is involved in every aspect of the offense. He is a solid, solid component to putting together a legitimate run at a fantasy championship. That said, matched up with this powerhouse is Marion Barber, who would not be my choice for a #2 RB. Most of Barber's production in 2006 was the result of racking up 16 touchdowns--a feat that will probably not be replicated in a part-time role. Barber scored a touchdown every 10 carries last season, and I can't imagine him maintaining this type of production for another season. I would look for Barber to return to single-digit TDs, which would make this backfield very average if not for Jackson's expected ridiculous numbers. As for the reserves on this squad, they are adequate. Fred Taylor is always mocked for his injury history and is clearly on the down-side of his career, but is still a thread to rush for 1,000 yards and a handful of touchdowns (although 850 is more likely at this point), which is adequate for a #3 RB. GM Geoff should expect similar production from Jerious Norwood, although recently the coach has stated that he will likely utilize Warrick Dunn more, and solidified the likelihood of this arrangement by playing Norwood in the final preseason game. Neither Dunn nor Norwood are the type of RB coach Petrino prefers, so you cannot really expect either one to win the job outright. Still, Norwood should be servicable should GM Geoff have to turn to him in a pinch.
• (6) Steve - Joseph Addai just kept creeping and creeping up draft boards this season, and I believe he was properly selected at #3 overall. The sky is the limit with Addai in the Colts offense, and one can't help but fantasize that he could put up Edgerrin James (of old) type numbers in his first season as a full-time starter. True, the name of the game in Indianapolis is pass first, but he is immensely talented and there is plenty of room for 320 carries which could equate to 1700 or 1800 total yards and a whole slew of TD opportunities. If there was one thing to worry about with this guy it's that he was always hampered by nagging injuries at LSU, so it will be interesting to see if he can survive a full workload this year. Of course if "Ifs" and "Buts" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas, so I applaud the pick and would have done the same. That said, pairing the Edge of new with the Edge of old isn't particularly strong, but it is strong enough to put this tandem in the top half of the rankings. The problem with Edgerrin James is unquestionably his offensive line, and that just can't be corrected in old offseason even with great coaching. So while Edge's numbers from 2006 may improve slightly, you can't expect anything more than that. 1,400 total yards and 8 touchdowns is probably realistic--not all that fabulous, but OK for a #2 guy. The backups on this team are... well... not good. LenDale White's best case scenario is to split carries, and the RB situation in Tennessee is frankly a clusterfuck. The LenWhale was given every opportunity to be the man, but gained 40 pounds in the offseason and the team was forced to bring back Chris Brown, who is currently slated as the starter. As for Priest Holmes, LOL. The Priest is on the PUP list and, even if he finds his way off, isn't expected to be any higher than #4 on the Chiefs depth chart behind Johnson, Bennett, and Kolby Smith. Did I mention that Dude is turning 34 years old in October?
• (7) Joe Sr. - You have gotta love what Frank Gore was able to do in San Francisco last year, blowing up for almost 2,200 yards and 9 TDs, making him the fourth most valuable running back in our league. I see no reason that Gore won't duplicate these numbers in 2007, unless you count the fact that he's missed the entire preseason with a broken hand. Or that Norv Turner is gone from the offense. Come to think of it, he probably won't duplicate the numbers from 2006. But, Gore does remain the focal point of the Niners offense, and should still put up top-10 running back numbers. It just might be a tad unrealistic to expect another 5.4 yard per carry season. I do still like the guy a lot, and think he is a great value at #6 overall where he was selected. Unfortunately Gore was matched up with yet another part-timer in Adrian Peterson (of the Vikings variety), which makes this RB tandem somewhat tame. Peterson is no doubt a TREMENDOUS talent, but he wasn't able to stay healthy in college against guys who don't hit quite as hard, and will be splitting carries with Chester Taylor for the duration of the season. This means maybe a maximum of 1,100 yards and 10 TDs if he is absolutely spectacular, as the Vikings aren't going to have anything resembling a pass attack and Peterson will be fighting 8-man fronts all year. As far as backups, we will start with Reuben Droughns. It looks like Droughns will end up with some percentage of the carries in New York, but it remains to be seen how high of a percentage that will be. He is maybe a #3 RB, perhaps a #4. We will know more after two or three weeks of regular season play. As far as Leon Washington is concerned, this is another question mark in my mind as I don't really know what to expect here. It has been said that Washington is more of a receiving threat than a runner, and it's looking like he could be a situational back for the Jets who gets lined up at WR just as often, if not more. Somewhat of an enigma, a couple weeks ago the guy ran for 6 yards on 7 carries but managed 86 yards on 3 receptions. He truly might be the Jets best receiving option, but GM Joe Sr. might as well have drafted another WR if that ends up being the story. Finally, we find ourselves at Mike Bell, who is a reasonable player to carry on your roster given Travis Henry's injury history if you can afford the roster spot. However, Bell will not see many carries unless Henry goes down.
• (8) Tom - Tom selected Shaun Alexander with the 4th pick in the draft, and I have to say I do not approve. I simply have a hard time believing that the magic here is back. Alexander is an old man at the ripe age of 30, and last year's nagging injury could be the beginning of the end for this guy. Still, Tiki Barber just proved that 30 doesn't necessarily equate to disaster, but this is the age that most RBs start to lose it. And don't forget, we did get an idea last season of what life is like without Steve Hutchinson. Alexander averaged just 3.6 yards per carry--almost a full yard lower than his prior career average. Yes, I think the awesomeness here has probably faded, but that doesn't mean that the 'Hawks won't force-feed it to the guy and still result in a 1,400 yard season with roughly a TD per game. But it IS just a matter of time until Alexander can't do it anymore, and my inclination would have been to stay away and draft younger talent. As far as Maurice Jones-Drew is concerned, I believe this guy is a fantastic prospect in '09 or '10 when Fred Taylor finally hangs 'em up, and it's not like GM Tom had much of a choice given how quickly the full-timers disappeared from the draft board, but I wouldn't be thrilled to have to start this guy in '07. Greg Jones is healthy in Jacksonville which means MJD will probably not see the same amount of goal line opportunities, and I would expect his TDs to drop to around 8 or 9 instead of that gaudy 15 from last year as a result. Tom does have a solid #3 in Deuce McAllister, who should continue to rack up the 1,000+ yard seasons and provide 10 or so TDs, even with the mythical Reggie Bush stealing carries and scoring opportunies. A fine replacement for Jones-Drew should he experience an unexpected sophomore slump. In addition to McAllister in the reserves, Tom has a herd of additional RBs including Kevin Jones, Brian Leonard, and Dominic Rhodes. As mentioned previously, Kevin Jones' future is uncertain for 2007. He was just removed from PUP and is listed as day-to-day, but it is unlikely he will carry a full load this season at any point. He is worth no more than a #3 spot and may or may not contribute to the success of this backfield with such a strong #3 in McAllister. Dominic Rhodes' role in Oakland is as big of a mystery as anything this season. Obviously he was brought in to Oakland to provide a different look than what LaMont Jordan provides, but he will miss the first four games of the season for breaking the substance abuse policy and lord only knows how involved he will be when he returns. He is a decent flier who might provide an emergency option. As for Brian Leonard, this dude is relatively useless unless Steven Jackson goes down. I imagine he is being purposed as trade bait more than anything.
• (T-9) JV - JV's first pick--and 9th overall--was Rudi Johnson. In my opinion, Rudi Johnson is #1 RB fools gold. All the pundits will tell you that he is the picture of consistency thanks to his many 13-1400 yard seasons in a row with 12 TDs each year, but what they don't seem to notice is that he never catches the football, and his consistency is seasonal. That is, in terms of week-to-week production, you never know what you're going to get. One certain fantasy league scout has said that his production for any given game depends entirely on the Bengals' first two possessions. I'm not sure if it is truly that obvious, but here's the rub with Rudi: He scored 5 points or less in four games last season. You just can't have that with your number one RB. In my estimation, Willie Parker was the best low-risk pick at this point, and the best high-reward pick was Travis Henry. The bottom line here is that Rudi Johnson is going to lose you games by himself. I've been there, and it's ugly. He behaves too much like a top WR than a top RB. Next, we find ourselves at Ronnie Brown. I just don't have too many good things to say about Ronnie Brown. Truth be told I don't have a lot of bad things to say about him either. He's just kind of "meh." He does have the potential to rack up maybe 1500 all-purpose yards, but he hasn't shown an ability to take it to the house, and the Miami offense has yet to prove it isn't completely anemic. The one good thing Mr. Brown has going for him is that Cam Cameron is at the franchise helm now, and he did make LT a star in this league. I don't think anyone has ever accused Ronnie Brown of being that talented, but he does have potential to surprise under the right conditions. Maybe. That said, I just don't have a real good feeling about Brown or this starting RB pair as a whole. But at least these are two true full-time RBs, an apparent serious commodity in this league these days. Moving on to backups, Chester Taylor has been running really hard this preseason in the attempt to hold on to a share of the carries this season in Minnesota with Adrian Peterson nipping at his heels, and from what I have seen so far, I think he will maintain a share for the duration. Couple this with the fact that Minnesota probably isn't going even .500 this season and Peterson has heavy escalator bonuses in his contract, and I think that pretty much finalizes the shared-duty deal. This bodes well for JV on those weeks when he will need a body to plug in at RB. As for #4 RB T.J. Duckett, well, whatever. I'm guessing GM JV is hoping he might play a Jerome Bettis role this year and steal a bunch of TDs like he used to do in Atlanta. It's probable, but personally I'm not starting a guy on the off chance that he might get me seven points on a good day, except in case of emergency.
• (T-9) Boris - To think that Willie Parker dropped past #8 in the draft is ridiculous. That he dropped all the way to #12 is totally absurd. This guy is a lock for at least 1,500 total yards and 12-15 TDs, and GM Boris received nothing short of a Christmas gift in August when Parker fell into his lap. Apparently the likes of GI Joe and GM Rich were too blinded by their respective draft plans to choose the safe option, but Parker certainly should have gone in the place of McGahee or Rudi Johnson, given the assumed criteria behind those decisions. The only downside to Willie Parker is the occassional bad game. Similar to the likes of Rudi Johnson, Parker ran for 30 yards or less in three games last year. However, in his defense he does have more big games than Johnson and will win you the occassional game by himself. Still, you don't like to see those low-point weeks, and GM Boris would hope that this changes with another year of experience under Parker's belt. As mentioned previously in the QB section, GM Boris opted to select his #2 RB in the third round, and the price he paid for this strategy was Carnell "Cadillac" Williams as his second starter. Regardless of where you sit on the Cadillac fence, you can't disagree that this is a huge risk and the best case scenario with that Buccaneers offense is 1,200 yards and half a dozen TDs. Not stellar by any means, and there are part-time guys who will exceed these totals unless a miracle occurs in Tampa Bay, but Parker alone is strong enough to keep Boris' tandem out of the rankings basement. Stranglely enough, a LaMont Jordan resurgence in Oakland might make this him the starter on this team on short order. Jordan has looked decent in preseason play, and if Culpepper wins the job for the Raiders it should reduce the run pressure and give the RBs more opportunities to produce. Of course the presence of Rhodes in Oakland makes me unable to actually project Jordan as Boris' seasonal starter, as the working relationship between these two RBs is yet to be determined. At #4 on GM Boris' depth chart is Tennessee rookie RB Chris Henry, who until recently was expected to win the starting job for the Titans. Unfortunately, he now finds himself third in line, and there is no indication that this will be changing anytime soon making him more or less irrelevant in fantasy play.
• (11) Joe Jr. - I am so confused by the pick of Reggie Bush at #8 overall. I can only imagine that this was a classic case of overthinking the pick. A guy who is sharing carries should never go in the first round, and that's pretty much the bottom line. True, Bush will have some big games and the potential to rack up 1,500 yards of total offense, but for my money, I'm taking a guy here who has the potential to put up 1,800 total yards and a lot more touchdowns. If GM Joe was going to be around for football season this year, he would surely be cursing Deuce McAllister's name all season long. Instead, we will be mocking him in his absense. Actually, that sounds a lot more fun--I'm glad Joe picked Reggie Bush here. Moving on to the second-round RB selection, Jamal Lewis leaves something to be desired. That being mainly an offensive line and a quarterback. Lewis will not find himself with as many short fields to work with as he did in Baltimore, nor will he find himself in as many 3rd and 4th quarter situations where pounding the rock to kill time was common. Cleveland is bad, and Lewis is going to have to work for his yards, hard. That doesn't bode well for the guy, considering he hasn't averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry for the past two seasons. Combine that with less scoring chances, and you have a bad recipe. That said, GM Joe won't necessarily have to ride Lewis out this season as he also has Brandon Jacobs sitting on the bench. What will become of Jacobs is kind of a mystery, which you don't want in fantasy football. Or at least, not with a guy you're counting on (or will be counting on). The Giants desperately want Jacobs to be the man in New York--and he has shown flashes of being able to do so--but the lacks quickness and isn't capable of the big play. Some analysts question whether he is capable of handling a full load (note: he has never rushed for more than 54 yards in a game), and believe he will never see 300 carries in the NFL. Time will tell, but again, these are not question marks I want on my team when I'm taking a big chance on a resurgence with my #2 RB. And as the preseason chunks on, it is looking more and more like this is going to be a split-carry situation with Reuben Droughns. As far as backups are concerned, let's start with Ron Dayne. This is a decent flier at the #4 spot on the depth chart, as injuries always seem to loom around Ahman Green in Houston. Although not a spectacular runner, Dayne is capable of handling a starting role and should steal enough TDs even with a healthy Green to make him a fine emergency play. Rounding out the depth chart at #5 is Vernand Morency. Although Morency finished off the 2006 season strong with a 5.4 YPC average over the last 5 games, he is not healthy and would have only been a place-filler for rookie Brandon Jackson even if he was. When he returns to action he may see a few carries per game, but he cannot be counted on for anything more than that barring an injury to Jackson.
• (12) Wyly - I'm not sure where to start with this one. Tremendous depth, but shaky starters. Unfortunately, tremendous depth doesn't help much. I guess we'll just start with the order in which these guys were drafted, so that means starting with Willis McGahee. I am completely baffled why McGahee was selected here over the likes of say, Parker, Maroney, or Henry. First of all, I'm not sure why everyone is getting their panties wet over this guy this year. He's was a 1,200 yard back in Buffalo and not particularly known for any catching ability, for starters. And I don't want to hear any of this "Oh, well, he's going to be a stud in Baltimore because they're a run-first team!" Wrong. You might be surprised to know that Baltimore actually passed 52% of the time last year--they run a very balanced offense. As for the offensive line, another silly rumor. This group is very average, and only has any name for itself because of the talented, aging Jonathan Ogden (who, in fact, considered retirement in the offseason). Moving right along, we find ourselves at Marshawn Lynch, who was taken entirely too high in the second round. In ESPN drafts, Lynch has been selected on average the 43rd pick overall, and why he is even rated that high I have no idea. Although the Bills are said to love the guy, and although he was tremendously talented in college, he has shown absolutely nothing noteworthy to this point in preseason play. In fact, he has looked flat-out bad. Dude even only went 6 for 9 yards against the Lions. It is my belief that GM Wyly should be starting Ahman Green in his place, and I have taken the liberty of placing Green in the lineup as the projected starter. At least Green has potential in the Houston offense who has seen success stories such as Domanick Davis in the recent past. I believe Green has a season or two left in him should he stay healthy, and has the ability to get roughly 1100 yards on the ground and maybe even another 400 catching the football, which would be solid given where he was selected. My guess is that there will be more consistency here also than with Lynch. So we've gone from bad value to pretty good value, to better value as we move further down the list. Next we have Warrick Dunn. Joe got great value here with the 87th pick. The Falcons are a run-first team, and now that Dunn is healthy, new coach Bobby Petrino likes what he sees. Dunn is a great emergency option as a #4 RB, and other fantasy teams should be so lucky to have a player of this caliber so far down their depth chart. BUT, we are not done yet. GM Joe Wyly has yet one more RB up his sleeve, and that is Tennessee's Chris Brown who slipped all the way down to pick 154, which boggles the mind. Apparently everyone had been reading the LenWhale White and Chris Henry cornbread in their fantasy mags and neglected to verify who was actually the starter for the Titans. Although Mr. Brown will likely split carries in this position anyway, this is still a hell of an option to have all the way down at your #5 RB slot.

Wide Receivers

• (1) Vince - The top three groups of receivers were very tough to rank, but I give the edge to GM Vince's squad because of the 1,600 yard potential of Chad Johnson. Johnson is a ridiculous talent will put up LT-type numbers from time to time. Last season he had two such games, posting 260 yards with 2 TDs and 190 yards with 3 TDs in back to back weeks. The only knock on Johnson is that he has only broken double-digit TDs once in his career, but it is rare for a WR to score more than 12 in a season and Johnson usually comes in around 9 with his yardage totals making up for this "shortcoming." Additionally, Johnson is really the only WR in the consensus top-5 who isn't limited by age, health, or QB concerns. Dude is 29, does not get injured, and plays on one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Running along side C.J. is our very own Roy Williams. Williams exploded last season for over 1,300 yards and 7 TDs, and you can only expect those numbers to improve with another year in the offense. Historically Williams had been limited by nagging injuries, but proved last year that he can stay healthy enough for 16 weeks which has got to make GM Vince feel at ease. The question surrounding Williams is, will the TDs improve? My belief is that they will, as Calvin Johnson should serve as enough of a red zone threat to take some of the pressure off of Roy. And let's not forget the presense of TE Sean McHugh, who strikes fear into defenses everywhere. In addition to these fine starters, GM Vince also selected Greg Jennings, Brandon Jones, and Troy Williamson to ride the pine. While the latter two cannot be expected to produce all that much, Greg Jennings might just be poised for a 1,000 yard season. Favre has been slinging it well in Green Bay this preseason, and Jennings has the talent to deliver. Brandon Jones is currently tagged as the #1 receiver in Tennessee. Unfortunately Titans WRs do not hold much value at this point in time, but Jones might rack up 7 or 800 yards should he be able to hold on to the primary job. Not a bad #4 by any means. As for Troy Williamson, well, he is limited by his QB more than anyone on this roster.
• (2) JV - It was difficult to rank this WR tandem #2, but there is a method to the madness. Although Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne were ranked #5 and #6 on my draft board, there are some concerns surrounding Holt that warrant consideration. More on that in a minute. Torry Holt is no doubt a first-ballot hall of famer being the fastest player to 10,000 yards in league history. A perrenial pro-bowler, Holt eclipsed the 1,300 yard mark for six consecutive seasons and has scored 10 TDs or more in three of the past four years. So what concerns could you possibly have about this guy? Well, word is out of camp that Holt has been experiencing problems in his surgically-reparied knee that are limiting his explosiveness, and we may have seen the beginnings of this last season when he couldn't manage to break 1,200. Not that 1,200 yards is poor by any stretch of the imagination, but this might be the beginning of the Holt decline, and dreams of a 1,500 yard season (as was the pace in 2005) are probably out the window. That said, Holt is still an excellent starter and there is no shame in having your WRs ranked #2 overall. Complementing Holt is the steady Reggie Wayne. We have been waiting for Wayne to surpass Marvin Harrison statistically for about three years now, and he came very close to catching his mentor last season coming in only 56 yards and 3 TDs away. So is this the season that Wayne becomes The Man in Indy? Probably not. Harrison is still the favorite target of Peyton Manning, and I would expect another similarly matched season. Not that it matters, because if Wayne can find a way to duplicate 1,300 yards and 9 TDs once again, JV will be on receiver easy street. Backing up Holt and Wayne are Donte Stallworth, Kevin Curtis, and Eric Moulds. Donte Stallworth is a fine #3 receiver to carry on your roster--the only issue is that there is so much talent among the Patriots receivers that you can't really expect a thousand yard season out of the guy. Still, he should be serviceable in bye weeks. Kevin Curtis is the #2 receiver in Philly this season and should see a fair share of balls thrown his way should McNabb be able to stay healthy. Curtis is a pretty talented dude, and GM JV had nothing to lose by taking a flier on the guy in hopes that this sleeper pans out. Eric Moulds currently finds himself third on the depth chart at WR in Tennessee, and in a pretty good situation for himself as a man among boys. While it may satisfy Moulds' ego to continue being needed in the NFL, it will surely not satisfy GM JV, as Moulds' fantasy value with Vince Young at the helm of that offense is pretty worthless. Moulds might see 600 yards if all goes well. But Sparty on, just the same. No, wait... that's the other MSU.
• (3) Geoff - Ranking these WR tandems just isn't easy. How do you decide to put Steve Smith and company down at number 3? Smith is the other outstanding NFL receiver with the ability to post 1,600 yards in a single season, and he almost achieved the feat in 2005. However, Smith has developed a nasty habit of getting injured and once you screw up a hamstring (or two hamstrings), it always seems like you'll do it again in time (see: Terrell Owens, Randy Moss). That said, even hobbled the guy still posted almost 1,200 yards and 8 scores last season, which are excellent numbers themselves. Smith is a threat to score from anywhere on the field, and possesses ridiculous body control which you see routinely in his crazy end zone grabs. Complimenting Smith is Geoff's other starting WR Lee Evans. I really like Evans and think he is a tremendous talent, but is limited by the play of below-average QB J.P. Losman. Also, take away his one huge 2006 game with 265 yards and 2 TDs and you'll find he had a very pedestrian 1,027 yards and 6 TDs which is pretty run of the mill for the NFL. If Evans can find a way to provide 2 or 3 big games per season, NOW we're talkin'. Maybe he makes that leap this year. He makes a very good #2 WR either way. Rounding out GM Geoff's WR corps are the ageless Devery Henderson, Matt Jones, and the ageless wonder Isaac Bruce. I personally fell in love with the talent of Matt Jones last season, and perhaps selected him a year too early. Jones has all the physical tools to be a dominant player in the NFL, but has struggled to transition to receiver even after three years and is limited, like Evans, by his quarterback. You have to be optimistic with this guy, however, as three of his four TDs came in November last year, and it seems like the sky is the limit. He may turn out to be a 1,000 yard and 8 TD guy afterall--which is solid as a #3 option. As for Devery Henderson, he was a big play waiting to happen last year. Posting a gaudy 23.3 yards per catch, it was feast or famine with this guy if you started him. It may be this year, however, that Henderson graduates to 5 or 6 catch-per-game territory now that he has moved up to #2 on the depth chart, which could make him a force to be reckoned with. If the guy can turn 32 receptions into 745 yards and 5 TDs, what can he do with 50 receptions? 60? 70? Do the math--the potential here is amazing. If Henderson figured out in the offseason how to stop dropping the football, Geoff got an absolute steal at the 170th pick in the draft. Finally, we arrive at Isaac Bruce, who is another real third receiving option for GM Geoff. You know what you're going to get with Bruce--1000 yards and three scores. Not bad for a guy entering his 14th NFL season.
• (4) Rich - No receiver in the NFL finds the end zone more than Terrell Owens--posting close to a touchdown per game for the past six years. The problem with Owens is that he is just never healthy. Since 2002 he has only played in one full season, and that was last year when he at least made an appearance in all 16 games. Luckily it isn't typical for Owens to miss large chunks of time, such was the case in 2005, but you cannot count on him for all 16 games. That said, Owens is the prototypical selfish player and will play through pain in exchange for statistics, so if Romo is finding the guy on the field you will see Owens battling injuries a lot harder like last season, where he played with broken bones and torn ligaments in his finger. And although injuries seem to plague the guy year after year, in terms of production he shows absolutely zero signs of decline. If Romo improves this season, Owens could easily post league-leading numbers in 2007. At the #2 WR slot Rich snagged Marques Colston (Marqueeees? Marquez? Marcus?) at the bottom of the fifth round. Not a bad deal for a guy who finished 13th overall in receiver fantasy points as a rookie. Some analysts think Colston will suffer a decline statistically with the exodus of Horn to Atlanta, but my guess is that you'll see practically the same numbers as you saw last year. Not top WR numbers, necessarily, but top #2 WR numbers for sure. The bottom line is that this guy, although lacking speed, has great hands--and Drew Brees will continue to find him, especially with Henderson and Copper stretching the defense the length of the field. In the #3 spot backing up these two starters is Mike Furrey, who is coming off a 98-catch, near 1,100 yard season with 6 TDs. Contrary to popular analyst opinion, I do not expect a severe decline in these numbers even with the introduction of Calvin Johnson to the offense. Perhaps we will see 3 or 4 TDs instead of 6, but the yards should stick around. You just don't go from a 98 catch season being Kitna's go-to guy on 3rd down to a nobody in one of the NFL's most prolific passing attacks over the course of one offseason. Furrey appears to have the best hands on the team, and Mike Martz will make sure this is taken advantage of as they break the rookie in this season. In the fourth WR slot is Ronald Curry, who is the #2 WR on the resurgent Raiders offense. Some people believe Curry is more talented than Porter, and should see a decent share of balls thrown his way with Culpepper at the helm. A fine flier as a fourth option and perhaps more (this is sleeper city, baby), but not to be counted on until proven. With my track record of sleeper WRs not panning out, Curry will probably be the first waiver wire casualty on this team. He'll probably suck.
• (5) Davebot - This ranking alone is enough to prove that Davebot is, in fact, a better fantasy drafter than actual Dave. It's time to start fearing the robots. The thought of Dave actually having receivers going into the season, let alone two top-10 guys, is ludicrous at best. Perhaps GM Dave will recognize the merits of having a couple quality wideouts, and Davebot will have done humanity some good after all. Javon Walker is entering year two of life after reconstructive knee surgery, and looks to improve on a 1,084 and 8 TD campaign in Denver. If there would be anything to scare you regarding Walker's potential production, it would be that after Jay Cutler took over at QB, Walker never posted a 100 yard game. True, he had one game of 84 yards, but his next highest total over the other four games was a meager 52 yards. So, if Cutler does not make the type of stride that everyone is expecting this season, it could actually be kind of a long year for Walker. That said, I think Walker will be just fine and produce like a true #1. 3,400 projected yards have got to go to somebody, and Walker is the Broncos' best option. Moving on to Donald Driver, Davebot's second WR pick, he is coming off a career year of 92 catches for 1,295 yards and 8 touchdowns, complete with no real reason why he shouldn't duplicate those numbers in '07. Driver owners did suffer a bit of a scare this preseason when he went down during a game versus the Jaguars, but the injury is not considered to be serious and the Packers expect him to be ready to roll come week 1 of the regular season. With Brett Favre showing few signs of physical decline, Driver should continue to produce like a top-10 receiver making dave's WR tandem quite formidable week in and week out. Davebot chose to fill some remaining roster spots with arguably one of the most talented receiver reserve pools in the league. Sporting two #1 receivers (on their respective NFL teams) and one Ram with serious potential, Dave is incredibly deep at the position and could have a slew of trade bait to peddle. Let's start by talking about Chris Chambers. Once considered to be the next potential Randy Moss, Chambers has been a disappointment in Miami, to say the least. That said, he is still the best option in Miami, and you know what QB Trent Green does with best options? He finds them on the field for big yardage. Combine that with the bizarre trend that Chambers seems to alternate good and bad seasons, and one could superstitiously say that he is due for a 1,000 yard and 11 TD season. As for the best option that Trent Green used to find, Eddie Kennison is no longer a 1K receiver but should still be a factor and good for 800+ yards and a few scores. Not a bad guy to keep around as a number four. Or maybe he'll be a number five? Because the Rams expect big things out of their new addition Drew Bennett, whom Davebot also scooped up in the later rounds. Bennett is a white wonder at receiver (Racism anyone? Anyone? Thank you, Chris!) and should play a role similar to what Brandon Stokley used to play in Indianapolis. Sure, it may be silly to assume that he's going to rack up over 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, but it really could happen. I'm not saying it will, but as a flier? Fuggitaboutit. Somebody has got to grab those balls, and Bruce's days are numbered. Nothing but upside here.
• (6) Tom - Marvin Harrison is the most consistent receiver in the game. He never gets injured, is a lock for 80+ catches, his career lows since 1999 (see: Peyton Manning) are a solid 1113 yards and 10 TDs, and despite his age (35), he shows few signs of deterioration. True, he has lost some speed, but his route-running is so excellent it doesn't seem to matter at this point in his career. It's looking like he has another 2 years left in the tank before you would expect to see the beginnings of a steady decline, and frankly with that completely out of sight he could still be considered the top WR overall in 2007. So why aren't GM Tom's wideouts ranked higher than they are? Because he completely blew it by pairing up Harrison with Darrell Jackson. To be frank, I'm not sure this guy can even be considered a top 20 catcher anymore. Perhaps a fringe top-20, at best. The fact of the matter is that Jackson has missed 13 games over the past two seasons due to injury problems surrounding his knee, and he now finds himself in a far less potent passing offense, having moved to San Francisco. Yes, Jackson is still capable of big games, but this would be far more realistic if he were still being tossed the football by Matt Hasselbeck instead of Alex Smith. Now that I have trashed Tom's #2 wideout, I will say something nice about his backups (who might end up starting in place of Jackson anyway). Frankly, I love what GM Tom was able to put together with wideouts 3 and 4. Mark Clayton is one of those magical 3rd-year wideouts who looks prime-ready to break out and put up big numbers. CBS Sportsline says to consider Clayton a low-end #2 with upside, and I couldn't agree more. Clayton nearly reached the 1K mark last season, and provided that Steve McNair remembers how to pass, he should attain this goal relatively easy in 2007. An injury has slowed down his preseason development to this point, but the Ravens expect him to be ready to go in week 1. At the #4 spot GM Tom picked up Jerry Porter, and it's nice to see that I am not the only crazy person out there banking on a Daunte Culpepper resurgence. Porter didn't care much for Art Shell last year and only ended up with 1 catch for 19 yards last season as a result of the feud, but don't forget that the real Jerry Porter is a near-1,000 yard receiver who scored touchdowns, and an excellent fantasy reserve. As for Craig Davis as the fifth wideout--probably just filler. Although he is slated to start for the first month until Parker returns from injury, he's a rookie who probably won't produce very much. Rookies rarely do.
• (7) Steve - Oh my god this is starting to get tedious. But I have spent so much time on everyone else I must... forge... on. Steve's group of WRs find themselves down at number 7. This is an interesting lot, as both of these dudes are the second option on their NFL teams, but still put up better numbers than most true #1s. Starting with Anquan Boldin, the grown-ass man, it's hard to believe this is only his fifth season in the NFL with the type of numbers he already has for his career. If he didn't get injured in 2004, Boldin would already have over 5,000 yards receiving. And here's a little known Boldin stat: He is the fastest player ever to 300 catches. That would be in 46 games, for you kids keeping score at home--or 13 games faster than Marvin Harrison. I have to admit, none of this crap has anything to do with his fantasy value you this year, but I don't give a crap. Ratings aside, I am a huge Boldin fan. Anyone who screams "Imma Grown-Ass Man!" in defenders faces after embarassing them is alright by me. And you've gotta love a wideout who's capable of destroying many NFL linebackers. Here's to another 1,200+ yard season. The only problem with Boldin in terms of fantasy value is the dude just hasn't been able to find the end zone enough with Leinart steering the ship. I think that will change this year having posted some pretty gaudy numbers in the preseason, and we'll see Boldin's TD totals get back up into the 7 or 8 range. Complimenting Boldin in the other starting receiver slot is T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Can you believe I just spelled his name correctly from memory? Because I did. And I'm not reciting that stupid TV joke. Houshmandzadeh broke 1,000 yards for the first time in his NFL career in 2006 and added 9 fabulous touchdowns as well. Not bad at all from a guy who is feasting on the scraps of Chad Johnson's leftovers. I would imagine the numbers don't get much better from here, but I suppose if the conditions were right he might be able to approach Reggie Wayne territory. What I can tell you is that I am not a believer that Chris Henry's absense (8 game suspension) will translate to bigger numbers for Houshmandzadeh--rather, I think it will do the opposite. If you don't have Henry to account for, you can concentrate more on stopping Houshmandzadeh. Pretty simple. That said, he's still a serviceable #2, even with 2005 numbers of 956 yards and 7 scores. As the first WR backup, Terry Glenn is a nice option to have. Although Glenn has a history of getting seriously injured every 3rd or 4th year he plays in the league, maybe he'll be able to squeeze out 16 games in 2007 before hurting himself again. Because when he's healthy, he's a pretty good receiver, and I'm sure GM Steve would benefit from his talents. While his past production has been fairly erratic, over the last two seasons he has managed to eclipse the 1K part each time, throwing in half a dozen scores or so in both years. There is no reason to suggest he will not put up these kinds of digits again (health concerns aside), and his numbers might actually improve as Romo matures moving him up to a starting position on this team. Rounding out the WR corps at the fourth slot is Indianapolis rookie Anthony Gonzalez, who team officials say remind them exactly of Brandon Stokley. How convenenient for the Colts, since this is the position he was obviously drafted to fulfill. If Gonzalez catches fire as a rookie, he might have a chance to put up Stokley-type numbers immediately... but of course this is predicated on the chance that Manning throws for 45+ TDs again which is unlikely. That said, as your number 4 WR it's not a bad shot in the dark to take.
• (8) Jason - Larry Fitzgerald is at least every bit of the receiver as Anquan Boldin, and more of a red zone threat. His numbers suffered badly in 2006 because of a hamstring injury, but should return to form in 2007. There's not much you can say that's bad about this guy, unless you're picky about elite speed or maybe your name is Champ Bailey. Bailey said last season that Fitzgerald telegraphed most of his routes, but hey... he's only entering his fourth NFL season at 24 years of age and already has one 1,400+ yard season under his belt. Cut the dude some slack. In a couple more years there won't be anything left to nitpick and this guy will be terrorizing everybody. In fact, if Wisenhunt opens up an air attack can of whoopass on the league this year, there's no reason why Fitzgerald can't rock out another 1,400 yard season with 10 scores, which is about as good as it gets. The only question mark here is whether there are enough balls to go around in Wisenhunt's offense between Fitzgerald and Boldin, as it appears that Leinart (at least currently) prefers Boldin as his primary target. Lined up next to Fitzgerald on this fantasy offense is Seattle receiver Deion Branch. I know that GM Jason thinks that Branch will explode this year, but I can't give a guy who has never had a 1,000 yard season the benefit of the doubt. If history is any indication, even in the best conditions Branch is a 900+ yard guy with half a dozen scores. Unless he has a fifth gear that he hasn't shown in five seasons now, fine, but I'll have to reserve believing it until I see it. I personally had Branch tagged as a #3 guy, and if that turns out to be the case I don't know how long this guy will actually end up starting for Chico's Bail Bonds. Reserve wideout Joey Galloway might end up being the better option, even in that anemic Tampa Bay offense where he still somehow manages over 1,000 yards per season and 7-10 touchdowns. In fact, I'm not so sure that the other reserve on this squad isn't a better option either, as Santonio Holmes seems to keep getting better and better, and is probably looking at a 1K yard season in 2007. These two guys are probably the best pair of reserves in the league this year, but unfortunately GM Jason has what looks to be three #3s and no real #2, so that 2nd starter might have to be an interchangeable part. And if there's one thing that will frustrate you more than anything in this league, it's playing the wrong receiver on Sunday and watching one of your bench players explode (see: Who Needs Receivers? roster, circa 2006).
• (9) Boris - I had such a hard time ranking the WRs in the final four groups here. I am giving the nod to GM Boris' squad at #9 because at least there is low-end, gaming #1 wideout here in Plaxico Burress, and my guess is that one of the many other receivers on this roster will end up adequately filling the role of the second starter, even if that guy doesn't end up being Laveranues Coles. Starting with Plaxico Burress, he has shown the ability to put up over 1,200 yards in the past. True, he only gained 988 last season, but the kicker is that he managed to reel in 10 scores in the process. Being that he is Eli Manning's favorite target, Plax's threat to score is not to be ignored--especially with Tiki Barber exiting during the offseason. Eli will likely rely on Plax even more going forward. Laveranues Coles is slated to be the other starter on this team, but it may end up being #2 WR by committee for GM Boris if nobody can step up to the plate. Coles is a pretty talented dude, although he has lacked the ability to rack up big yardage in recent years and has never scored more than 7 touchdowns in a season (and has scored as few as 1 TD twice). Additionally, he is extremely inconsistent to the point where he caught 2 passes for 9 yards in one game last season. In week 16, no less, which coincides with the Fantasy Bowl. Yeah... I mean... how pissed would you be? GM Boris has a similar player to Coles with a similar history riding the pine named Santana Moss, athough the big difference here is that in 2005 Moss did manage to post a gaudy 1,483 yards with Brunell at the helm. Now that he has Jason Campbell you can't really expect to see that again, but with his speed he IS a touchdown threat from anywhere on the field at any given time. Should he develop a rapport with Campbell, it is feasible that he could again eclipse 1,000 yards in Washington. But wait! There's more. GM Boris pulled the trigger with the homer pick in drafting Lions heralded rookie Calvin Johnson as well. Projections of Johnson's first year potential vary wildly, but it seems like the consensus among the non-retards is that he will post something in the neighborhood of 900 yards and 7 scores. Oh crap, another Laveranueus Coles. But seriously, even though Johnson has ridiculous physical tools, these kinds of numbers are pretty uncommon for a rookie. True, he could go all Anquan Boldin or Randy Moss on us and throw up 13 or 1400 yards, but the chances of this happening are probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 1% and I've seen nothing in the preseason to suggest that he will be this dominant from the get-go. Maybe next year, Calvin! Next, we arrive at Dwayne Jarrett, the big-play rookie out of USC. I tell you what--if Johnson has a hard time managing Coles-like numbers, there is no way this dude is going to manage them, especially with his particular toolset. Jarrett is more of a Keyshawn clone, and it's going to take a little while for him to figure out how to become an effective possession receiver in the NFL. His fantasy value in 2007 is pretty much nil. Finally, we reach the 6th and last receiver on this roster, Brandon Marshall. This is another one of those guys that could be tagged as a sleeper if everybody and their brother didn't already know about him. The Broncos really want this guy to work out, as his big body could end up being a huge threat in the end zone. That said, he's currently listed as #3 on the Broncos depth chart and stays a fantasy benchwarmer until he proves he can fill these big shoes... and it might be a while because Shanahan wants Marshall to be a tough guy, but so far he's only demonstrated that he's a big pussy.
• (10) Joe Jr. - Andre Johnson catches a ton of balls. 103 last year, to be exact. The problem? 11.1 yards per catch. That equates to 1,147 yards on the season. Adequate? Yeah. Great? Not exactly. And touchdowns? Nope. Andre Johnson has never had more than 6 touchdowns in a season, and he had only 7 in 2005 and 2006 combined. But Schaub will change that, right? Not convinced. The offensive line has been the culprit in Houston--they haven't been able to give a quarterback a fair shot at doing anything back there yet. So what you're saying is that Johnson isn't a #1 fantasy receiver? Right. He's a great talent, but is wasting away playing for the Texans. That makes him a fantasy #2, and a low-end one at that. If you're after 1,100 yards and 6 scores, you could have the aforementioned Joey Galloway four rounds later. Moving right along, we have Reggie Brown lined up as the other starter on this team. This is actually kind of humorous to me, because Reggie Brown was selected 24 picks after Andre Johnson and I believe he's the better fantasy play, especially with McNabb back at the helm in Philly. That said, Brown is still only a #2 WR, unless he can figure out a way to turn 816 yards and 8 scores into 1,200 yards and 11 scores. Maybe not a reach if McNabb can stay healthy, as he is definitely the best weapon on the Eagles offense not named Brian Westbrook. But still, starting a couple of guys who didn't combine for 2,000 yards last year is not a risk I'd be willing to take. True, the difference between 800 yards and 1,100 yards is a maximum of 30 points and I have been a long time proponent of the belief that receivers suck, but here's the rub: Some wideouts will win you games, and some won't. As it stands right now, you can't count on either one of these guys to have a game breaking performance. That's the lesson I learned last year--do not ignore the receiver. GI Joe made that very same mistake this year. Backing up Joe's two #2s are a high-end #3, a suspended guy, and a kick return specialist. Let's start with the #3 because he's the only draft pick that's not completely absurd. Jerricho Cotchery is a fine #3 fantasy receiver, and his near 1,000 yard, 6 TD performance in 2006 will probably be a regular occurance for this gentleman going forward. With Pennington under center there isn't much room for improvement to those numbers, and actually it may be that the acquisition of Thomas Jones will hurt Crotchery's red zone opportunities, but for now that is nothing more than rampant speculation by my genius offensive (in more ways than one) mind. Moving on to the fun parts, let's start with the suspended guy. Chris Henry has been prohibited from league play until week 10 of the regular season, when the lucky duck gets to come back just in time to get his ass kicked by Baltimore. So here's what I don't get: Are there really enough roster spots available such that you can keep a worthless guy around for 11 weeks, and then still have the balls to play him when he returns on the assumption that he'll be able to pick up where he left off? And furthermore, the guy has never been able to stay out of trouble, so here's to betting that he'll find a way within the next ten weeks to get himself suspended for the remainder of the year. Any takers? Finally, we find ourselves at the bottom of this depth chart. GI Joe made the same mistake as Miami this year. That is, they both drafted Ted Ginn, Jr. Ginn will suck this year. Maybe next year, too. I don't really have much else to say about that.
• (11) Wyly - It hurts my brain to list two great talents so low in the rankings, but I really don't see any other way around it. I'll start with Randy Moss. The sky is the limit when it comes to the Randy Moss resurgence now that he's paired back up with a talented QB in Tom Brady, but here we go with the hamstring again. It's been nothing but nagging injuries for three seasons now, and Moss starts off 2007 by missing the entire preseason. They say that the limp is now gone, but they also say that this is the same type of tweak that made Steve Smith human in 2006. So I don't know what to think. I certainly can't give the benefit of the doubt to a guy who hasn't had more than 60 catches since 2003, that's for sure, but SO MUCH POTENTIAL. On the other side of the fence we have Braylon Edwards, another dude who reeks of potential but is moreso limited by his situation in Cleveland. The numbers suggest that in his third season he will go off for 1,200 yards and 9 scores, but who is going to throw him the ball? Frye? Yeah... sure. It certainly won't be Quinn, as it's just a matter of time before he's handed the reigns and suffers through first year blues. Unfortunately, this is probably more of a wait 'til next year situation. All that doom and gloom aside, who else can see, in their mind's eye, Moss and Edwards combining for 2,500 yards and 20 scores? Oh god, it looks beautiful. Probably won't happen, but at least the potential is there. But before we exit this chapter of the analysis, let's talk about this team's backups backup, Joe Horn. Let's see... how should we execute this most efficiently? Let's try this: How much would you love to have a 35 year old, 600 yard receiver playing in an offense with the worst quarterback in the NFL? Thanks for playing!
• (12) Joe Sr. - It's not that I think Hines Ward is bad, it's just that he's the closest thing this fantasy team has to a #1 wideout, and Ward is way too far away from living up to that label for me to give these starters much consideration. Ward's yardage has been in a steady decline since 2002. Well, that's not EXACTLY true since in '05 and '06 he had 975 yards both times, but in fairness the yards per catch did slump during that period from 14.1 to 13.2 and the TDs declined from 11 to 6, so I do contend Ward is getting worse with age. The other trend to look out for is that Ward didn't miss a single game for the first seven years of his career, and in '05 he missed one, and in '06 he missed two. You might think a few games are nothing to get excited about, but these health issues are no doubt driving him into decline in addition to being on the wrong side of 30. You have to remember, Ward is not a particularly talented receiver, but rather a guy who gets by on hustle and physically overcoming his opponents. If he is losing his ability to do that, he loses his edge. And this is what appears to be happening to the man. The other starting WR on this fantasy team is either going to be either Vincent Jackson or Bernard Berrian. For sake of this analysis I have given the nod to Jackson, as Berrian is just too risky to play on a weekly basis. Starting with Vincent Jackson, this is a guy who caught only 27 balls last year. So why the hype? Well, 27 balls for 6 TDs is a pretty damn good ratio, and he did half of this scoring damage during the last two weeks of the 2006 season, so there is plenty to get excited about. Jackson has been handed the #1 job in San Diego this season, and has had a spectacular preseason, to be sure. It's easy to look at all this information and completely buy into the hype, but let's not forget that Jackson is still only going to be the third option on this offense. He may be ready to rock, but will likely only rack up 60 catches or so, regardless. You can't really regard him as more than a high-end #3 WR, when you look at the situation from that angle. The other starting option on this squad is Bernard Berrian, a tall speed demon with good hands who really surprised last season when he tripled his production from years past. I have no doubt that Berrian is a very capable receiver, but he is severely limited by quarterback Rex Grossman and will see serious ups and downs, just like last year. There will be games where he runs up 100 yards and a score, and then games where he barely gets 20 yards and leaves you scratching your head, wondering how it's even possible. Grossman is simply too erratic a passer for Berrian to take his game to the next level. The final receiver left on this roster is Mark Bradley, who is the 3rd receiving option in Chicago. Grossman has a hard enough time progressing through two reads, let alone three. Need I say more?

Tight Ends

• (1) Davebot - Easiest piece of the analysis outside of Peyton Manning. Antonio Gates is unquestionably the top tight end in the league, racking up 32 touchdowns and almost 3,000 yards over the past three years. Tony Gonzalez used to be capable of these types of numbers, but the quarterback situation in Kansas City puts Gates in a league of his own.
• (2) Wyly - No longer the top fantasy tight end, Tony Gonzalez still maintains a firm grip on the #2 spot because he continues to rack up big yardage and is practically never injured. Although it is evident that Gonzalez has lost a step and the QB situation in Kansas City is extremely poor, he is still the best receiving option on the team and should be expected to post another 900 yard season with roughly half a dozen scores. Backing up Gonzo is Indianapolis TE Dallas Clark, who is fine to use in a pinch but normally posts relatively pedestrian numbers despite the high-octane offense he plays in.
• (3) JV - Todd Heap is a reliable tight end whose upside is limited by McNair's deteriorating skill set. Still, Heap should post his regular 800 yards and 6-7 TDs as he is still the primary receiving option in the Ravens offense, even with the maturation of Mark Clayton. If anything, Clayton's increasing role in the offense should actually open doors for Heap, as he will be facing fewer double-teams. Backing up Heap is Marcus Pollard, who can't be expected to produce any type of significant numbers this season at the ripe old age of 35, especially after being ruined by the Lions over the past two seasons. Maybe a few TDs with 300 yards, best case scenario.
• (4) Geoff - If Jeremy Shockey could make it through an entire season without 50 nagging injuries, he might even be able to overtake Gonzalez as the second best fantasy tight end... but it looks like that will never happen. For as durable as Gonzalez has been in his career, Shockey has been exactly the opposite. That said, Shockey is still a threat for 700+ yards and 7 scores every season, and those are excellent numbers. And this year, he might even be set up for his best season yet now that he is the undisputed second option on the Giants offense, with Tiki Barber having retired at the end of the 2006 season. Backing up Shockey is sleeper TE Tony Schleffler. OK, so the dude only had 286 yards and 4 touchdowns last year. But don't look now... 204 of those yards and all of those TDs came with Jay Cutler at the helm, over the final four games of the season.
• (5) Tom - Chris Cooley has put up relatively the same numbers as Heap and Shockey over the past couple years, so why not rank him a tie for 3rd or 4th? Well, apparently coach Joe Gibbs is sick of this QBs treating their tight end as the primary target, and is taking measures to establish receiver Santana Moss as the go-to guy. This will probably equal a slight reduction in Cooley's 2007 numbers, unless Gibbs changes his tune.
• (6) Vince - Jason Witten was a supreme disappointment in 2006 after posting great yardage and TD totals in '04 and '05, only finding the end zone a single time. This sad total can likely be attributed to Romo's growing pains, and I don't expect it to happen again in 2007. In fact, it is my belief that Witten will return to 750 yard and 6 TD form, as the coaching staff has resolved to design more plays around Witten and upgraded the offensive line as well. Backing up Witten is new Dolphins TE David Martin, who aims to fill the shoes of Randy McMichael. Martin is about as injury prone a player you can find, and has never played a full season over a 6-year career. Miami hopes that Cam Cameron can turn this dude into the next Antonio Gates. Good luck with that one, jerkoffs.
• (7) Rich - Alge Crumpler is a fantastic talent and has put up great numbers over the past three seasons, but now faces a fate worse than death: Joey Harrington at quarterback. Will Joey even look this guy's way? If he does, will he be able to put it in the guy's hands? If he can, will it be for more than a three-yard gain? All these questions and more answered by week four of the regular season. In the event of failure, L.J. Smith awaits a starting position--also a legitimate top-10 tight end capable of putting up above-average numbers.
• (8) Joe Jr. - Kellen Winslow is a fantastic talent and has put up great numbers over the past three seasons, but now faces a fate worse than death: rookie Brady Quinn at quarterback. Until Quinn assumes the reigns, Winslow will no doubt shine a little brighter than how his final numbers will likely appear. Rich gets the nod over Joe here in the rankings because he has a better backup in case his primary TE ends up blowing. The backup here is Heath Miller, whose numbers will likely decline this season as it has been said that the new offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh intends to run more 3 and 4 receiver packages than in the past.
• (9) Boris - The buzz around Vernon Davis is that he looks so good this season, it's feasible that he could put up top-5 numbers. It has been said that he is capable of becoming the Niners version of Antonio Gates. That remains to be seen, although is it acknowleged that Davis is certainly a real talent. He, like the previous two TEs in this list, is limited by the quality of his quarterback, although I don't believe anyone would dispute that Alex Smith will probably have the better season of the three. For now, all we have to work with is alleged potential and 20 catches for 265 yards and three scores, so he has to be placed underneath the proven commodities. Backing up Davis is Owen Daniels of Houston, home of the NFL's worst offensive line. Said line limits Daniels' opportunities to be a productive receiver, as he is commonly asked to stay in and block.
• (10) Steve - Benjamin Watson is my boy. I think he's a supreme talent, and his physical tools make him a nightmare for opposing defenses. Unfortunately he plays for New England where they spread the football around like Syphillis at Michigan State, so Watson's opportunities for big numbers are limited. That said, they do seem to utilize him a little bit more each season, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him post another 600 yard season with a couple additional scores. Backing up Watson is Titans TE Bo Scaife, who continues to impress the coaching staff and should be provided with more opportunities to contribute to the offense. It is very possible Scaife could have his best season yet, but if Vince Young is throwing for less than 3,000 yards his opportunities, also, will be limited.
• (11) Jason - Randy McMichael has a history of putting up pretty good numbers in Miami, and now finds himself in a better offense in St. Louis. That said, the guy was cut by his former team so maybe this is the end of the ride. Either way, he does have a relationship with Scott Linehan and will be given every opportunity to produce for the Rams. It's entirely feasible to envision a 500 yard, 5 TD season should things go well. Backing up McMichael is the other Denver TE (and they have been known to infuriatingly use a lot of them) Daniel Graham. Quoting Mike Shanahan, "The only reason (Graham) didn't catch much in New England is they have a guy in Watson who's a freak of nature." No diggity. Still, it is pretty obvious that Cutler prefers looking Scheffler's direction.
• (12) Joe Sr. - Eric Johnson finds himself playing for the high-powered Saints this season, but it's no reason to go ga-ga over the dude. He might be an occassional red zone target, but unless he proves otherwise he shouldn't be tagged as a starter in this league. There are just too many weapons in New Orleans, and already plenty of mismatches to exploit with the talent in place. Backing up Johnson (I guess) is Greg Olsen of the Chicago Bears. My guess is that Joe Sr. will be starting this guy by week three as he has the potential to eventually be one of those 700 yard types, but he's going to be limited by Rex Grossman's inabilities and will likely go through the same growing pains as the rest of the Bears offense.

Defense/Special Teams

• As I am a shitty rater of defenses, I defer to the experts at Pro Football Weekly to provide these rankings per usual.

Final Quantitative Draft Analysis

Divisional Predictions

Final Thoughts

I think it is preposterous that Davebot ended up ranked with the second best draft overall (although, just slightly edging out Vince). True, my analysis is generally only based on the starters and Davebot drafted all starters first, but still--very curious. Davebot's draft was truly pretty excellent. Other than that, not many surprises from the analysis this year. The teams I pegged as strong and weak pretty much came out that way in the wash, although I have to admit Joe Sr. came out ranked a little higher than I would have expected. As for you poor bastards in D2, well, you have long seasons ahead of you. I would like to say that the wildcard is going to come from your division, but you all may very well beat each other up and out of wildcard contention.