Welcome to another year of fantasy football! As always, I (Rich) perform an analysis of the fantasy draft and mock other people and their rosters.

A word to the wise: The 2006 Draft Analysis is not for the weak of heart. If you're too sensitive to hear that your team sucks, then stop reading this article now. The fact of the matter is that many people just can't stand hearing that their team is bad, they get really upset, and they tell me in an email to everyone in the league that I'm crazy, that their team is awesome, that my playoff picks are ridiculous, they always say blah blah blah you rank your team too high. Well I've got news for you guys: In the 2003 Draft Analysis, I picked 3 out of 4 playoff teams correctly, and in the 2004 Draft Analysis I went 4 for 4, even correctly pinning down the wild card. OK, so I do always rank my team too high--I sucked pretty bad last year. But, to that effect, I blame Mr. McHugh for not sucking like he usually does. This year I fully expect Mr. McHugh to stink it up again, and all will once again be right with the world.

So, as usual, just swallow your pride when you read that your team sucks, and think about what you can do differently next year to turn things around.

At any rate, I'm sure everyone just wants to jump right into this. Normally I begin this article with a quick explanation of how the draft analysis works, but this year I have a new super-secret formula for calculation and refuse to share it with you, because I feel it's my most accurate rating system to date and I'm afraid it reveals too much of my draft strategy. Since you're all getting to be better drafters (well, almost all of you), I feel more compelled to protect my Intellectual Property. And I suppose it gives me more wiggle room to overrate my team as well. HA HA. On to the rankings!

	Presumed Starter	Rank	Backups	Depth
Jason	Warner	6	Delhomme	A
Joe Jr.	McNair	12	Brees	B-
Rich	Vick	8	Bledsoe, Roethlisberger	A-
Joe Sr.	Hasselbeck	5	Leftwich, Johnson, Pennington	B
Geoff	Brady	3	Volek	D+
Vince	Green	11	Favre, Simms	C
Tom	Palmer	2	Kitna	B-
Wyly	Culpepper	10	Carr, Leinart	F
JV	P. Manning	1	Plummer, Frye	C
Dave	McNabb	9	Brunell	C-
Boris	Bulger	7	Rivers	C-
Steve	E. Manning	4	Brooks	C-

JV
- Peyton Manning is clearly the class of the QB position. He's been indestructable since he came into the league, and can be counted on to be sitting at worst #2 of the QB rankings by the end of the season. It's hard to beat that kind of fantasy football guarantee.
- In the event that Manning goes down, however, JV could find himself screwed. I'm not entirely convinced that Plummer will be the QB in Denver come week 8--it all depends on Denver's record. It's just a matter of time before Cutler takes over as the Bronco field commander, and if Denver is struggling midway through the year, bye bye backup for JV. And let's face it, Frye isn't even servicable at this point (barely even worth a mention).
Tom
- Although Palmer is coming back off a serious knee injury, he was never a very mobile guy to begin with and thus still deserving of the #2 QB ranking. Innocent until proven guilty, as they say.
- Kitna could be a boom or a bust this season. A boom if he plays like a Martz QB, a bust if the Lions offense really blows and Martz decides it's Orlovsky time for now and the future.
Geoff
- Tom Brady is about as steady as they come as a fantasy QB, a sure lock for a top 4 finish this season. Don't forget that Brady led the league in yardage last year, and regardless of what the pundits may say, makes otherwise average receivers look like pro bowlers. The loss of Givens and perhaps Branch won't phase Brady in the least.
- At backup Geoff has Billy Volek. Although I like Volek personally--dude can flat out throw--the Titans drafted Vince Young and he will see the field at some point this season. There won't be a reason to wait once the Titans are 2-7 and look like absolute crap.
Steve
- At QB, Steve decided to roll with Peyton's younger brother Eli. The younger Manning had the makings of a fantastic season last year, although he ended it on a terrible streak of interceptions. Still, this was enough to make him a top-10 QB in terms of points per game last year. Eli should improve drastically in his third year putting up numbers rivaling Tom Brady.
- Aaron Brooks is an enigma. He has big play potential but has the propensity to lay big time eggs. If Oakland comes out of the gate to a really slow start, that might be all the NFL ever sees of Aaron Brooks again.
Joe Sr.
- Matt Hasselbeck never seems to show up until the second half of the season, putting up points in bunches and inflating his stats. Of course, the argument could be made that this is due to his receiver situation, but facts be facts. Still, the numbers alone warrant the #5 spot and nobody ever complained about a QB turning it on for fantasy playoff time. Getting there might be a challenge, but between the elder Joe's platoon of QBs, one of them should rise to servicable fantasy status just in case Mr. M needs to play the matchup game for weeks 1-8.
Jason
- Thank you Jesus! Jason grabbed Jake Delhomme before Warner in the draft, but I fully expect Warner to be his fantasy starter in week 1. With the mighty Cardinal receivers and now Edgerrin James at his disposal, Warner could return to formidable fantasy status very quickly. I personally feel that Warner could challenge the likes of Tom Brady in fantasy QB ranking this year, but the injury concern alone keeps his ranking out of the top 5. That said, Delhomme is about the most servicable backup you could ask for, and would make a fine #1 QB himself if Warner comes up lame (in either definition of the word).
Boris
- Marc Bulger has been an amazing fantasy QB since he took the Rams Reigns away from #6 ranked Kurt Warner. That said, this ain't Kansas anymore and the Mike Martz regime is over, so the Bulger's value as a fantasy QB in a more standard NFL offense is somewhat in question. Sure, it's possible that he will continue to play at an extremely high level, but I believe his value will be somewhat diminished this season.
- If Bulger gets injured as he has in previous years, Boris will really struggle at the QB position with Rivers as his backup. Rivers is virtually untested in the NFL, and preseason hasn't really done his stock any favors in my mind. The Chargers may regret allowing Drew Brees to go the Saints, and Boris may regret drafting Rivers as his backup to a somewhat injury-prone starter.
Rich
- Here's what you know: Michael Vick is a terrible NFL quarterback. Here's what you may not know: Michael Vick is a pretty damn good fantasy quarterback. Finishing #8 overall in QB points per game last season, Vick is one of five of those top eight who return to the same situation on offense. Bulger lost Martz, McNabb lost Owens, and Collins is all but gone forever. I'm hedging that Vick will improve on this #8 ranking, although the injury concern and propensity to play very poorly against good teams is certainly acknowledged.
- Should Michael Vick falter (or be playing a tough defense in any given week), Drew Bledsoe should be able to step into Rich's starting QB role in a big way with Owens leading his receiving corps. Bledsoe finished #11 in QB rating last season and should be a lock to move up 3 or 4 spots with the addition of Owens.
Dave
- Here's what you may not remember about Donovan McNabb. The last time his offense looked anemic, he became a very average quarterback, throwing only one touchdown per game on average. McNabb's big play and big game potential is still certainly recognized, but his situation warrants a #9 ranking at his position.
- Dave's backup is Marc Brunell, who may look like a good fantasy QB on the surface with 23 touchdowns in 2005, but his fantasy points per game ranks him below the average of the second dozen QBs in this league (top finishers ranked 13-24). Brunell might throw up the occassional good game, but his fantasy potential should McNabb get injured again leaves something to be desired.
Wyly
- Daunte Culpepper is one year removed from an absolutely horrendous season. Previously the top scoring fantasy QB year in and year out, Culpepper looked like absolute garbage in 2005 without his safety net wideout Randy Moss. Newly transplanted to Miami, Culpepper hopes to get a fresh start and rekindle the flame of 21+ fantasy points per game--the absolute ridiculous advantage he used to command at his position in previous years. That said, Chris Chambers is very talented but is NOT Randy Moss, and Marty Booker is NOT Cris Carter. It remains to be seen if Chris Brown is Robert Smith, but truthfully that may not matter. I believe Culpepper's days as #1 fantasy weapon are through, although he does have the potential to regain top ten status. And because of that, I rank him #10.
- Mr. Joe Wyly had better hope that I'm right about Pep, because if I'm not he's totally f***ed. David Carr is a miserable quarterback, and an even more miserable fantasy quarterback. In 2005, there were a plethora of BACKUPS who had a better PPG average than David Carr. Ouch. As for Leinart, is this a keeper league now? Did I not get that memo? Even if Warner goes down, this dude has zero value in 2006. Wyly would have been better off drafting Quinn Gray of the Jaguars, Byron Leftwich's backup. Why's that, you ask? Because he averaged one point per game better than David Carr in 2005. Ka-chunk.
Vince
- Trent Green used to be considered a mini-Peyton until 2005 came around. Throwing for only 17 TDs, his production fell off a cliff. Vince is obviously gambling that Green's production will return to form in 2006, but Al Saunders is gone from that KC offense and Herm Edwards = Offensive Disaster. I'll venture that Green doesn't hit the 4000 yard mark for the first time since 2002, and the TDs will be hovering somewhere around 20. Not that those numbers are necessarily bad, but with the way that offensive line is looking Green might be facing another 17 INT season if he starts getting hit with any sort of frequency as has been the case this preseason. Of course, Favre is always an option as the #1 QB of Attitude Adjustment, but it's been Pick City in Green Bay recently as well.
Joe Jr.
- Joe is really high on Baltimore's defense offense this season. For some reason he must have forgotten that although the ripe old age of 35 and a 12 year pro, Steve McNair has never thrown for more than 24 touchdowns in his life (20+ just three times), is perpetually broken, and hasn't played better than a backup fantasy QB since 2003. Look for the trend to continue.
- To backup McNair, Joe selected Drew Brees who is a risk in his own right. Although a damn good QB the last few years in San Diego, God (and Biff Tannen) only knows what kind of career he will have in New Orleans. Although he looks to be throwing the ball well in preseason, the Saints defense looks MISERABLE and Brees may be forced to throw a lot this season, equalling boom or bust for Joey Ballgame. A risk to backup a risk is not a good play in my mind, although for as low as Brees was drafted, he has potential to become the steal of the draft at the QB position.

Running Backs

	Presumed Starters	Rank	Backups	Depth
Jason	R. Johnson, M. Bell	7	No Servicable Backs	F
Joe Jr.	T. Barber, J. Jones	6	Benson, T. Jones	C-
Rich	Tomlinson, Dillon	1	Dunn, Bush	B+
Joe Sr.	Jackson, C. Taylor	8	No Servicable Backs	F
Geoff	Jordan, F. Taylor	11	No Servicable Backs	F
Vince	Williams, R. Brown	3	A. Green, K. Barlow	B+
Tom	Alexander, Gore	2	No Servicable Backs	F
Wyly	James, Droughns	9	Rhodes	C-
JV	K. Jones, C. Brown	12	Addai	C
Dave	Portis, [Wildcard]	5	Lewis, Davis, Foster	A
Boris	L. Johnson, Parker	4	McAllister	C
Steve	Westbrook, McGahee	10	T. Bell	B

Rich
- LaDainian Tomlinson is, in my mind, the safest bet at fantasy RB in the league this year. He's the only one of the alleged "big three" that is running behind the same offensive line, and although is facing a different situation on offense with Philip Rivers at QB, has already proven that he can be highly productive in a sputtering offense (see 2002, 2003). Corey Dillon may be aging, may have lost a step since his first year with the Patriots, and may have a younger RB with a ton of potential waiting in the wings behind him, let's face it... this is New England we're talking about--home to NFL veterans everywhere. Dillion will continue to see the majority of the carries over backup Laurence Maroney. However, even with 209 carries in 2005 Dillon proved himself a very capable back, scoring far better than the average #2 RB in the game last season.
- Warrick Dunn serves as an extremely capable #3 for Rich's RB corps. Racking up over 1600 total yards last season, Dunn is more or less a lock for double figures on any given Sunday.
- One of only three teams in the league to have such a luxury, Reggie Bush is the #4 RB on this team. Although Bush will be splitting carries in New Orleans this year, word out of Saints camp is that the coaching staff will be looking to get him roughly 20 touches a game, in some way, shape, or form. Not a great option, but good enough to turn to in a pinch.
Tom
- Shaun Alexander has the potential to score as much as two or three RBs anytime he steps on the field. At least, this was the case in 2005. With the loss of Hutchinson and just common sense, I look for Alexander to come back down to earth to his regularly scheduled 16 TDs a season--but that doesn't really diminish his value what-so-ever. Alexander should/could still easily end up the #1 scoring running back overall in 2006. At the #2 position Tom is lining up "Six Bucks" Frank Gore, the newly ordained workhorse in San Francisco now that Barlow is out of the picture once and for all. Gore has looked fantastic in preseason and ended 2005 strongly, and let's face it, he's now in a Norv Turner offense making him a virtual lock for 1,000+ yards on the ground this season if he can stay healthy. And Tom had better hope he does, because if Gore goes down, so does, likely, Tom's season with it. Tom has no semblance of a backup to turn to should one of his primary guys go down, and will be hurting for points on his bye weeks.
Vince
- Vince really made out like a bandit in the RB department, despite picking #12 overall. It should have never transpired this way, but Vince was lucky enough to score Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown back to back in the 1st and 2nd round, giving him a nasty 1-2 punch for any competitor to reckon with. These two second year backs could easily combine for 30 points week in and week out for Coach Vince, and their potential is virtually unlimited.
- Should either one of these primary backs go down, Vince finds himself stacked with RB backups despite not picking one until the later rounds. This is assuming, of course, that Ahman Green comes back like he's supposed to and Kevan Barlow wins the Jets starting RB job, but both of these events should go down as expected leaving Vince with four starting backs. Can you say trade bait? Granted Green and Barlow aren't stellar RBs, but starting RBs are hard enough to come by and there are four teams in this league without any servicable backups.
Boris
- If every fantasy pundit in the world is right, Boris got a heck of a steal drafting Larry Johnson #3 overall. Personally, I just don't see the allure of a one hit wonder minus one Willie Roaf and one Al Saunders. That said, if I was stuck picking at #3 I suppose I would have had to take Larry Johnson as well, just to save face in case he ends up being the player that the fantasy world seems to think he is. So for that reason alone, I will continue to rank LJ #3 overall and give him the benefit of the doubt. Willie Parker rounds out Boris' starting lineup and may have a somewhat better statistical year now that Jerome Bettis is out of the equation and he is the established #1 in Pittsburgh. The question remains if Parker will continue to be removed in goal line situations.
- Backing up his starters, Boris has Deuce McAllister which isn't great but could work out OK in a pinch. McAllister will likely see 10-12 or so carries a game including those around the goal line--a servicable option in bye weeks, etc. As a weekly starter, however, McAllister likely will not cut it so GM Boris will have to hope that no injuries arise to his leading men during the fantasy season.
Dave
- Dave has by far the most depth I think I have ever seen at the RB position in this league. The superstar element isn't here, but in sporting Clinton Portis as well as three other undisputed starting backs, Dave is walking on the fantasy RB equivalent of easy street. Of course, hoarding all of this talent really doesn't make much sense, so I fully expect a trade to go down around week 4 that will send one of these backs elsewhere in exchange for improvement at the receiver position. The question is, can Dave afford to wait that long with the rest of his squad being so questionable? GM Dave may wait to see what his quarterback situation looks like before he makes any kind of decision.
Joe Jr.
- What happened here? True Joe scored big with Tiki Barber as his #1 rusher, but he can't feel great about Julius Jones as his #2. Despite his big game potential, Jones carried just 13 times for 29 yards against the swiss cheese defense of the Saints, and has already shown a propensity for visiting Bill Parcells' dog house. It might be just a matter of time until Barber becomes the feature back in Dallas or a committee system is reinstituted. And if that happens, who does Joe turn to? His only servicable backup is a choice between Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones, and all signs point to split carries in Chicago as well. Joe cannot possibly feel good about his RB situation, and if he does it's my guess that will change by week 4. Additionally, why would you draft Laurence Maroney in the 8th round instead of securing the bigtime backup to your own feature RB? I'm not bitter (Dillon), but the pick did boggle my mind.
Jason
- Jason selected Rudi Johnson with his first pick in the draft, and followed it up three rounds later with Mike Bell who could prove to be just as valuable a RB commodity. The only thing that may hurt here is that if history is any sort of indicator, Jason may find that Rudi Johnson is very streaky and that poor RB play in certain weeks from his #1 guy might be somewhat painful to endure. Then again, any Denver RB has the potential to produce like a #1, so these speed bumps might not be so brutal when they do occur. What will certainly be more painful to GM Jason is his backup situation--or lack thereof. Jason may have to look to trade one of his marquee wideouts to shore up his backup situation should one of his primary guys get injured. Lucky for Jason, the bye weeks of his RBs take place on weeks versus non-divisional opponents.
Joe Sr.
- Steven Jackson is a likely lock for a 1300+ yard season, and an above average feature running back. Chester Taylor, however, despite his inherent potential, is largely unproven, and I can't fathom how the elder Joe didn't find it necessary to secure a servicable backup (or at least Mewelde Moore) in case Taylor should falter. And, unless Joe Sr. gets lucky scouring the waiver wire, I don't see how this situation will change any with his lack of any quality reserves to ship out. That said, I believe Taylor will perform admirably and should serve as a fine #2 back, especially with a new-look Vikings offensive line.
Wyly
- Edgerrin James is a huge question mark in my mind now that he's carrying the load for the Cardinals. Will this be the same guy who's good for 250+ fantasy points per season? Or will he struggle to run behind a traditionally poor run blocking offensive line like so many Cardinals running backs before him? I'm not sure James will be able to manage 4.0 yards per carry in 'Zona, but I estimate he'll have a 2005 LaMont Jordanesque season, that being 1000 yards or so rushing, 500 yards or so receiving, and 10ish TDs. Not bad, but not Edge great. And as for Droughns, well, I like Droughns as a #3, but not as a #2. I know this tears at Wyly's heart, but the Browns are really bad. I can't imagine a scenario in which Droughns scores more than half dozen or so TDs. So Wyly finds himself in a situation where he has somewhat of a pretender at the #2 RB slot with only Dominick Rhodes to turn to, and Rhodes should split carries for a while with the younger, more versatile Addai for half the season until they eventually remove him from the offense.
Steve
- Brian Westbrook in the first round? Surely you must be joking? Westbrook has never played a full season for the Eagles, and won't likely be starting anytime soon. In fact, he seems to be getting more fragile every season (see games played trend: 15, 15, 13, 12...). Sure he's a pretty good back when he plays--who can argue with 110+ total yards per game? But as your number one back? Bad idea.
- Willis McGahee is a good back on a bad team. A really, really bad team. He's pretty much a lock for 1200 yards and 5-10 TDs, but you can't expect much more on a really, really bad team. Unfortunately for Steve this puts McGahee in the #2 RB category, and when Westbrook gets injured this will make him a subpar #1. Luckily even with 10 carries a game Tatum Bell is basically the same guy, but any combination of these three RBs puts Steve at a scoring disadvantage.
Geoff
- LaMont Jordan and Fred Taylor, with no backups. Normally this would land you the #12 RB ranking, but lucky for Geoff, JV owns that spot this year. Taylor is an injury waiting to happen, as we all know, and GJ didn't have the wherewithall to secure his backup, Greg Jones. LaMont Jordan proved to be a pretty good #1 RB in 2005, but that line in Oakland looks pretty brutal and I think the Raiders downgraded at QB in bringing Brooks aboard and making Collins walk the plank... so his stock could actually fall this year despite Jordan admitting to not understanding any of the Raiders blocking schemes in 2005.
JV
- I don't really know what to say here. When we read JV his RBs over the phone, he sounded really excited and I can't for the life of me figure out why. Kevin Jones has done nothing in his career to warrant a cheer, and has looked like garbage so far in the preseason. That said, I suppose I could envision a scenario where he ends up with 2005 Steven Jackson numbers, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt here. And that's where my benefits of the doubt end. Chris Brown? Joseph Addai? Ugh. Brown is facing a horrible situation in Tennessee with Henry and Williams nipping at his heels, and Addai, although the more talented among the Indy RBs, will likely share carries for a while until Tony Dungy and Co. are willing to hand the rookie a starting spot in an offense that demands veteran perfection. This backfield, as of August 22, is really, really bad. JV is lucky he has a distinct advantage at QB and TE to prop his team up for a while.

Wide Receivers

	Presumed Starters	Rank	Backups	Depth
Jason	C. Johnson, S. Moss	2	D. Jackson, Porter	B+
Joe Jr.	Boldin, Driver	6	Bruce, Toomer	C
Rich	Bennett, Jones	11	K. Johnson, McCardell	B-
Joe Sr.	Ward, Mason	7	Curtis, Burleson	C
Geoff	Wayne, S. Smith	3	Horn, Muhammad, Randle El	A-
Vince	R. Moss, Chambers	4	Walker, White	B+
Tom	Owens, Holt	1	Moulds, Galloway	B
Wyly	Harrison, Houshyomomma	5	Evans, Edwards	B
JV	Roy Williams, Burress	8	Stallworth, Mike Clayton	C+
Dave	R. Smith, Brown	10	Jurevicius, Mark Clayton, Wilford	C
Boris	Fitzgerald, A. Johnson	9	Coles, Branch, Bradford	B
Steve	Kennison, Glenn	12	Bryant, Price, Williamson	C+

Tom
- Owens and Holt... name brand city. So here's the question: Will Owens and Holt of 2006 be the Owens and Holt of 2005? Probably not. But does it matter? Not really. Even if they're both 2 points per game off their weekly average, this is still the dominant combo in the league, should Owens get healthy (and I believe he will). As far as backups go, Moulds isn't worth a damn with Carr at the helm, but if Galloway has a season even remotely close to the one he had in 2005, Tom will have a pretty good third option.
Jason
- Next to Owens and Holt, this is the premier league combo right now (and really, the only top three combo that's completely healthy). Chad Johnson is a hell of a player, and Palmer should be back in business here pretty shortly to get him the ball as well as last year. Santana Moss had a monster season in 2005 and I see no reason why he won't duplicate these numbers in the same offense this year, unless Brunell falls over and dies. But even if this happens, Darrell Jackson is a nice option to turn to as a #3--a guy who has always been considered a solid #2 receiver.
Geoff
- Steve Smith is currently the most dominant receiver in the game. Reggie Wayne has Manning throwing him the ball, and should eclipse Harrison as the primary target in Indy at some point in his career. Will it be this year? Who knows. If not, Geoff can turn to Joe Horn, who is one year removed from a monster season and is looking to return to form with a new look offense. Mushin Muhammad wasn't half the receiver in 2005 that he was in 2004, and likely won't ever return to that form with the defensive minded Bears, but as a #4 receiver, it doesn't matter.
Vince
- A tough combo to rank, Vince is rolling with the Randy Moss and the guy who aspires to be the new Randy Moss, Chris Chambers. Despite the hype behind Moss, he's only produced one dominant season since 2001, and it remains to be seen if he will ever return to his former glory. Chambers is a rising star, especially now receiving long balls from one Daunte Culpepper, but still I need to see to believe if this guy is really going to reach his potential. That's really what this receiver combo is about--potential--and could either make this team great or just fade into normality and do nothing particularly special. Third option Walker actually fits this mold as well, one year removed from a season ending knee injury.
Wyly
- Harrison is solid, Houshmazilly is the #2 receiver in the Nati. While I fully expect Harrison to continue to perform like a top 5 guy, if anyone on the Bengals suffers due to Palmer's knee injury, it's going to be Houshyomomma. Still, this is all rampant speculation, so Housh is innocent until proven guilty and I'll continue to regard him as a "one and a half" receiver (that is, not quite a #1, but better than your average #2). As for Evans and Edwards... meh. Bills and Browns... Losman and Frye... nothing good to say about that.
Joe Jr.
- Anquan Boldin is an absolute monster and a legitimate #1 guy. 2005 might be as good as it gets with this guy, however, with Fitzgerald coming into his third year and perhaps stealing some yards and catches from Joe's feature boy. Driver is the #1 receiver in Green Bay, but puts up numbers like a #2 fantasy receiver--nothing to get particularly excited about (and Favre isn't getting any younger). Speaking of not getting any younger, Bruce started to fall from Grace last year and is likely on his way down, and Toomer is a #4 fantasy guy at best as the #3 option in New York behind Burress and Shockey.
Joe Sr.
- Hines Ward returned to fantasy form in 2005 as a poor man's #1 receiver, and Derrick Mason used to be a rich man's #2 when he was paired with McNair in Tennessee. Together, they could serve as an above average 1-2 punch for Joe the Senior and are thus deserving of the 7 ranking. Burleson could be a decent pinch receiver in Seattle listed at #2 on the depth chart, and it's probably just a matter of time until Curtis takes over the Isaac Bruce legacy in St. Louis. That said, these aren't stellar reserve options, but rather more in the range of average.
JV
- Plaxico Burress is undisputedly Eli Manning's favorite target, and this relationship should continue to bear fruit. Burress should break 1000 yards this year and might hover somewhere around 10 TDs. One might expect the same out of Roy Williams--maybe even better numbers if the 3rd year breakout rule applys, especially in a Mike Martz offense. This is, however, a lot of "might," and unfortunately keeps JV's receivers out of the #7 spot. Stallworth is a servicable #3 and could produce pretty good numbers again in N.O., so if Williams continues to battle injuries JV should be able to safely look in this direction for help.
Boris
- Fitzgerald could be the league's next great WR, but Andre Johnson is average at best, at least with Carr at the helm of the Houston offense. Average Andre was pegged to have a breakout year last season as it was his third in the NFL, but he responded with the worst season of his career. Why should we believe that this year should be any different? Sure it may be true that he'll see less double-teams now with Moulds on the other side of the field, but the Texans have done nothing to address the offensive line or bad QB play. At best I think we could expect Johnson to return to 2004 form, making him a #3 wideout at best. Boris would likely be better served to actually play Coles as his #2 hoping that some of that Pennington/Coles magic gets restored from a few years back, but until Coles shows any kind of consistency, you can't really count on that happening to any degree.
Dave
- Here's where it starts to get ugly... 10-12. Dave leads the best of the worst in the WR category with proven commodity Rod Smith and McNabb's only option Reggie Brown. Smith is a #2 guy in #1 sheep's clothing, and Brown, well, ah, you've gotta love unknowns. Speaking of unknowns: Jurevicius, Wilford, Clayton, lions tigers and bears oh my. But wait... there's more...
Rich
- Bennett, Jones, McCardell, Johnson. I personally feel that there's a lot of risk/reward value here, but I'm not dumb enough to rate these guys any higher than 11. But if I may gush a bit about the value I perceive to be here, I think that a couple of these guys have the potential to perform like a top-half combo: Bennett and Jones. Bennett is one year removed from a 1247 yard, 11 TD campaign with Volek at the helm, and guess who's back at QB this year? Matt Jones has all the tools to become a 1200+ yard receiver as well, and has been asked to fill Jimmy Smith's shoes in Jacksonville. If he can stay healthy, a 1200 yard, 8 TD campaign isn't entirely out of the question. It's sleeper city, baby--or a total bust. Backups Johnson and McCardell will be OK to turn to if my strategy falls apart, but I will likely look to trade up with an RB at some point this season.
Steve
- Steve gets the #12 spot here because we all know who Eddie Kennison is--a very average receiver no longer in the Al Saunders inflationary offense--and Terry Glenn isn't even the first option in his offense. Of course that can't be the only criteria in ranking Steve #12...the other side of the coin is that his reserve options aren't very attractive either. Bryant has some potential, but meh... as much as I love the 49ers even I can acknowledge they blow.

Tight Ends

	Presumed Starter	Rank	Backups	Depth
Jason	Davis	9	Wiggins	C
Joe Jr.	Troupe	12	Utecht	C-
Rich	Heap	3	Watson	B+
Joe Sr.	McMichael	8	Klopfenstein	C
Geoff	Witten	6	Stevens (out 6 weeks)	D
Vince	L.J. Smith	11	A. Smith	C
Tom	Crumpler	5	E. Johnson	D-
Wyly	Winslow	10	Brady	C-
JV	Gates	1	Clark	C+
Dave	Gonzalez	4	None	F
Boris	Cooley	7	Miller	C
Steve	Shockey	2	Franks	C

JV
- Antoinio Gates remains the undisputed #1 tight end despite losing his QB to free agency and now being stuck with one Philip Rivers. Gates would have to lose 3 points a week to even start to be considered #2 territory.
Steve
- Shockey is the new Gonzalez. He gets tons of yards and a fair amount of TDs, and is still improving. If SD had a real receiving threat instead of just McCardell, Shockey might be able to challenge Gates for the #1 spot.
Rich
- Todd Heap is a rising star with more value now that Boller is no longer at the helm. Ben Watson may be one of the top sleepers in the draft if he turns out to be Brady's weapon of choice. I predict a monster season for this guy.
Dave
- Gonzalez is the old Gonzalez--a lock for 900 yards every season. His TD production fell way down last season, and it remains to be seen if he can regain his old form or not. Gonzalez could easily reclaim his #1 TE throne at any point, but I'm biased against the KC offense this year and thus have him ranked at #4. Truth be told TEs 2-4 are basically ties and the formula used to calculate the ratings takes that into consideration.
Tom
- Alge Crumpler is Mike Vick's favorite target, but the fact remains that it's still Mike Vick and thus Crumpler will probably never grab more than half a dozen TDs, limiting his potential at his position.
Geoff
- Witten rounds out the top class of TEs with potential to score like the rest of them. That said, the addition of TO might limit the number of balls thrown in his direction this year.
Boris
- Cooley is an underrated TE who grabbed a lot of TDs in 2005 and should duplicate his performance in '06.
Joe Sr.
- Randy McMichael is the projected starter here and a decent option at TE, but the way Mr. McHugh was talking Klopfenstein is the second coming of Touchdown Jesus and could outscore all fantasy players.
Jason
- Vernon Davis is Jason's rookie TE who has tons of talent but is unfortunately stuck in San Francisco. Unfortunately you can't rank an unproven rookie any higher than #9.
Wyly
- Kellen Winslow, Jr. is the self-proclaimed best tight end in the NFL. Maybe if he can stay on the field this year we can catch a glimpse of that. Until it happens, he's stuck at the 10 spot.
Vince
- L.J. Smith is 5-6 points a week TE. Nothing fancy, but steady production just the same.
Joe Jr.
- Joe claims that Utecht will be his starting TE but I don't buy that, so I pencilled in Troupe. According to Joe, Utecht is the next big thing in fantasy football TEs. According to CBS Sportsline, "Utecht has no value in Fantasy Football." You be the judge. Oh, and Ben Troupe is basically a mini-L.J. Smith.

Defense/Special Teams

	Presumed Starter	Rank	Backup	Depth
Jason	Colts	3	Chargers	B
Joe Jr.	Redskins	12	None	C
Rich	Buccaneers	5	Cowboys	B
Joe Sr.	Bears	2	None	C
Geoff	Dolphins	11	Browns	C
Vince	Broncos	9	Eagles	B
Tom	Panthers	1	Jaguars	A+
Wyly	Giants	8	Bengals	C
JV	Ravens	6	Patriots	B+
Dave	Falcons	10	Bills	B
Boris	Seahawks	7	Raiders	C
Steve	Steelers	4	Lions	C

I'm not stellar at analyzing defenses, so I left that to the pros at The Sporting News. You want analysis here, pick yourself up a copy.

Final Quantitative Draft Analysis

	QB	RB	WR	TE	DEF	Depth	Rating	Rank	Result
Tom	2	2	1	5	1	C	11.98	1	Great
Rich	8	1	11	3	5	A+	1.75	2	Good
Boris	7	4	9	7	7	C+	0.90	3	Good
Jason	6	7	2	9	3	A	0.83	4	Good
Vince	11	3	4	11	9	A	0.50	5	Fine
JV	1	12	8	1	6	B+	0.40	6	Fine
Joe Sr.	5	8	7	8	2	D+	-1.06	7	Poor
Geoff	3	11	3	6	11	D-	-1.16	8	Poor
Dave	9	5	10	4	10	B-	-2.50	9	Bad
Wyly	10	9	5	10	8	D	-3.01	10	Bad
Joe Jr.	12	6	6	12	12	C-	-3.07	11	Bad
Steve	4	10	12	2	4	B	-5.19	12	Awful

Predictions

Division 1	The Favorite:	Rich - Solid RBs, good depth, plug-in QBs. WR a concern, but there are some risk/reward players hiding out & RB depth allows for trade up.
	The Contender:	Jason - Great WRs and tons of potential at QB and somewhat at TE, but must stay healthy at RB or Jason's season could end quickly.
	The Dark Horse:	Joe Sr. - Bears defense always formidable. Fine starting WRs, average QBs. RBs are largely unproven, and lack of depth here may sting.
	The Pretender:	Joe Jr. - Questionable starters, aging stars. Jones a risk with Barber behind him. Limited depth. Benson/Jones to split carries. No stud TE.
Division 2	The Favorite:	Tom - Favorite to win it all. Tough at every position, average depth. Interchangable stud defenses. Still, RB injury could ruin his season.
	The Contender:	Vince - Shaky QB/TE, but RBs solid with great depth at the position. Big-play WRs could alone win some games. Will improve with trades.
	Dark Horse (1):	Geoff - Great WRs, shaky RBs, no depth. Taylor is a rough start as a #2 back, having been producing poorly in recent years.
	Dark Horse (2):	Wyly - A high risk/reward team if I've ever seen one. Horrible depth, but starters could absolutely explode under the right conditions.
Division 3	The Favorite:	Boris - Looking for title #2, Boris has an above-average team at every position with decent depth, and is the current favorite to win D3.
	The Contender:	JV - Manning, Gates excellent. Shaky RBs--Jones a ? and Brown, Addai should split. Good depth here, but not a lot of trade bait to improve.
	The Dark Horse:	Dave - Depth at RB is incredible, & trades will improve this team substantially. Potential to win D3 if McNabb, Gonzalez return to form.
	The Pretender:	Steve - Good QB in Eli, WRs a concern. Fine RBs but Westbrook injury always looming, and little depth here. Could surprise, but I doubt it.

Final Thoughts

Interesting draft--very interesting. I didn't think I drafted as well as I normally do until I ran the numbers, and some of the teams I thought drafted poorly didn't turn out so bad after all. Looks like I'm running on pure instinct now instead of raw preparation. I've ascended to the next level. What's keeping you people (besides Tom)?