Rich’s Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis

2005 Edition

 

Howdy and welcome to another year of fantasy football!  As always, I (Rich) perform an analysis of the fantasy draft and then I mock people and their rosters.

 

A word to the wise: The 2005 Draft Analysis is not for the weak of heart.  If you’re too sensitive to hear that your team sucks, then stop reading this article now.  The fact of the matter is that many people just can’t stand hearing that their team is bad—they get really upset—and they tell me in an email to everyone in the league that I’m crazy, that their team is awesome, that my playoff picks are ridiculous… they always say blah blah blah you rank your team too high.  Well I’ve got news for you guys: In the 2003 Draft Analysis, I picked 3 out of 4 playoff teams correctly, and in the 2004 Draft Analysis I went 4 for 4, even correctly pinning down the wild card.  So just swallow your pride when you read that your team sucks, and think about what you can do differently next year to turn things around.

 

At any rate, I’m sure everyone just wants to jump right into this.  But first, a quick word about how the analysis works (as the algorithm changes slightly from year to year):

 

The first step in the Fusinski Draft Analysis is to write down the starters at each position, and then rate the backups at those positions.  Essentially, a Backups rating of Y means that there are legitimate backups here, and a rating of N means there is not.  The Plus and Minus indicates the level of legitimacy (or lack thereof).  For the most part, the ranking that follows is based on the quality of the starters, however in the case of Quarterbacks, the Backup players are more heavily weighted into the position ranking because of the frequency of QB injury.

 

After all teams have been ranked at individual positions, the average is taken across the rankings.  There is, however, a weight to every position based on my own secret sauce formula.  Some people may disagree with me that this is a good way of doing things, but it makes sense to me, and I’m not telling how I came up with the numbers, so SHUT THE HELL UP.

 

The weight given to each position is as follows:

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

DEF

1.00

0.89

0.63

0.41

0.71

 

This means that the following formula is used to calculate your Draft Rating:

 

[QB Rank] + [RB Rank] * 2 * 0.89 + [WR Rank] * 2 * 0.63 + [TE Rank] * 0.41 + [DEF Rank] * 0.71

 

Your Draft Rating determines who had the best draft, with the lowest score being the best and the highest score being the worst.

 

Anyway, on to the rankings.

Quarterback Rankings

 

 

Starting QB

Backups

Rank

Chico

Manning

Y

1

Dark

Culpepper

N-

2

T&A

McNabb

Y+

3

Capitol

Green

N-

4

Hostile

Bulger

Y

4

2Legit

Plummer/Brooks

Y+

6

JVE

Pennington/Vick

Y+

7

Tude

Collins

Y

8

MHTM

Delhomme

Y

8

Kooter

Hasslebeck

Y-

10

Dogs

Favre

Y-

10

THHP

Brees

Y-

10

 

No surprises here for the top five QBs, really.  Manning is the clear #1 this year with Culpepper having lost Randy Moss to Oakland, but you figure Culpepper won’t lose more than 5-10%, when it all boils down to numbers in the end making him the clear #2—so that explains Chico’s Bail Bonds and The Dark Side’s rankings.  McNabb holds steady at #3 for T&A, and then we have Green and Bulger (Capitol Punishment and Hostile Takeover) tied at #4 with their consistent numbers year in and year out.  Then things start to get interesting.

 

I ranked 2 Legit 2 Quit’s Jake Plummer number six as he was the tenth highest scoring player in our league last year, and only stands to get better with another year in that Denver machine.  JVE, having drafted both Vick and Pennington gets the #7 spot simply because of injury concern, even though Vick could post numbers that rival Donovan McNabb if he could stay healthy for a season.  After that, we have Attitude Adjustment and MHTM tied at the number eight spot with Kerry Collins and Jake Delhomme.  Collins has always been a wild card, and although he does have Moss on his team now, you really can’t be sure what to expect out of the guy.  As for Delhomme, you figure Mushin Muhammad is a huge loss to that team, and Steve Smith in his prime was more of a highlight film than a big numbers guy—so Delhomme’s numbers would be expected to go down slightly this season.

 

Rounding out the QB position, we have three teams tied for 10th place, as all three of these QBs are essentially the same.  In actuality, all of the last five were essentially the same but Attitude Adjustment and MHTM got the nod for their 8th place tie simply because of serviceable backups.  But anyhow, tied for 10th we have Kooter with Matt Hasslebeck, Reservoir Dogs with Brett Favre, and The Happy Harry Potters (THHP) with Drew Brees.

Running Back Rankings

 

 

Starting RBs

Backups

Rank

Tude

Holmes/Martin

N

1

Capitol

Tomlinson/Jordan

Y-

2

THHP

Portis/Lewis

Y+

3

2Legit

Anderson/Barber/J.Jones

Y+

3

Dogs

James/Green

N

5

Hostile

McAllister/Westbrook

Y

6

Kooter

McGahee/K.Jones

Y

7

MHTM

D.Davis/Johnson

Y

7

JVE

Alexander/Barlow

Y

9

T&A

Bennett/Dillon

Y-

10

Dark

Arrington/Taylor

N

11

Chico

Jackson/Brown

N+

12


Running Back rankings are always interesting because sometimes the numbers actually differ vastly from where you would think a RB would be ranked in your head, just by watching them play.  When you actually run the numbers, however, sometimes you get a vastly different story.

 

At #1 we find ourselves faced with Priest Holmes and Curtis Martin rushing for GM Vince Levigne.  A rushing attack like that sure could give you an attidude adjustment—it’s just plain scary.  Martin, the ageless wonder, is obviously a steady #2, and the upside to Priest is ridiculous.  In fact, he’s the only player who can rival the kind of numbers that a Manning or Culpepper could put up in their best years.  Did you know that if Priest Holmes stayed healthy last year he could have put up somewhere in the range of 395 points?  The thought of that is preposterous, and if Priest can stay healthy nobody’s ever going to want to play Vince.  Thank god he dropped down to D2.

 

#2 is the first example of what I was talking about in the foreward for this section.  On paper you wouldn’t think of the Tomlinson/Jordan combination as all that formidable simply because of the apparently averageness of Jordan, but the fact that LaDainian is a 320 point guy is enough to prop up any RB tandem.  As long as LaMont doesn’t completely flame out—or get the big one, Elizabeth—Capitol Punishment’s “La RB” combo should serve GM Joe McHugh just fine, taking him all the way to la playoffs.

 

The three-spot is interesting because here we have a couple of guys who ensured they were rock solid at the RB position—the only two teams in the league this year who can claim that.  GM Rich Fusinski has three legitimate #1 RBs in Mike Anderson, Tiki Barber, and Julius Jones, and GM Dave Stampor has the formidable combination of Clinton Portis and Jamal Lewis, with a side of Warrick Dunn (or Carnell Williams or Duce Staley, if you prefer).  The fact that all three of 2 Legit’s RBs are 250 point guys and THHP has, well, a previous 2000 yard guy and a Clinton Portis with a healthy offensive line, makes these positions dead even in the rankings.  We’ll have to see how the numbers play out during the season, but GM Rich should be able to gain a statistical edge just by playing his matchups properly with these guys.

 

The best of the rest, GM Joe Wyly’s boys Edge James and Ahman Green, takes the five-spot.  The only concern here is the critical lack of even a semi-serviceable backup at a position that produces a lot of one or two game injuries.  If either of these guys can’t stay healthy, or if Ahman Green’s fumblitis costs him some carries to Najeh Davenport, the Reservoir Dogs could be in trouble.  But until that happens, GM Wyly’s RBs will be a force to be reckoned with.

 

At the #6 position we have Mr. McHugh with Deuce McAllister and Brian Westbrook.  These guys could easily rival the numbers that Edge and Ahman could produce, but Brian Westbrook’s injury concerns knock Hostile Takeover’s RBs down a spot in the rankings.  If Westbrook can stay healthy, however, and if McAllister produces like he’s capable of, this tandem could actually contend with the top 3 tandems in the league.

 

#7 leaves us with another tie between Boris and Geoff’s Boys.  Or was that Geoff’s JV’s Boys?  I can’t remember—so confused.  But at any rate, we have essentially Domanick Davis vs. Kevin Jones, and Rudi Johnson vs. Willis McGahee.  Statistically I give the edge to Davis in the first matchup and McGahee in the second, so that leaves us with basically a tie here.  Knotting it up even more is the backup comparison—Bettis vs. Duckett—who, again, are essentially the same player numbers-wise.

 

Things start to get a little shaky now around the #9 position.  Here we start judging the best of the worst, and by God it gets ugly.  At #9 we have the JV Experience sporting the tandem of Shaun Alexander (the good) and Kevan Barlow (the bad), with backups Duckett and Faulk (the ugly).  In all honesty, I don’t know who you JV will start as his #2 back.  Barlow is miserable, and Duckett and Faulk are both part-timers.  I wouldn’t want to be in JV’s shoes here—hopefully, for his sake, Vick has a monster year and provides JV with a means to make a trade for a viable #2 back.

 

Just when you think things couldn’t get any worse, we come upon T&A’s combo of Corey Dillon and Michael Bennett.  Or, should we say, Corey Dillon.  It’s just a matter of time before Bennett goes down, and Mewelde Moore is conspicuously missing from the roster.  His backup, Thomas Jones, MAY prove to be useful, but the emergence of Cedric Benson could equal decimation for GM Angelo’s season if he cannot secure Mewelde Moore in a trade with the Dark Side.

 

Falling farther down the rabbit hole we slam into #11—The Dark Side’s tandem of JJ Arrington and Fred Taylor/LaBrandon Toefield.  Don’t get me wrong here—I DO like Arrington—but do I think he’s a #1 back?  Not really.  Not yet, anyway.  And that leaves us with Fred Taylor, who in my mind is a #3 back with some upside, but not someone to bet the farm on.  I just don’t know about this backfield at all.  In fact, it’s kind of painful to look at it.

 

Finally, we arrive at #12.  Steven Jackson and Ronnie Brown, rushing for Chico’s Bail Bonds.  Let’s start here: Frankly, I don’t believe for a second that Jackson is going to get 300 carries this year.  I just don’t buy it.  250?  Likely—but I, personally, would avoid this guy like the plague until Marshall Faulk hangs ‘em up.  He’s gonna steal carries.  He’s gonna steal receiving yards.  He’s gonna steal some TDs.  And he’s gonna steal some wins away from GM Jason Miller, too.  But that’s only half the equation here.  The other half is Ronnie Brown, who recently ended his holdout with Miami.  Word out of Miami on this guy hasn’t been good thus far.  Folks are saying he looks lost on the field, and with the emergence of Ricky Williams, the guy might only have a job for four weeks.  In fact, the rumor mill is even swirling that Ronnie Brown might not even be featured for the first four weeks because of the trouble he’s having in practice.  This could be really ugly for GM Jason Miller, especially since he doesn’t have a backup until Benson takes the field this year—and who knows when that will be or if it will even pan out.  If Brown is playing as poor as the rumors are insinuating, it could mean a really rocky start for Chico’s Bail Bonds.

Wide Receiver Rankings

 

 

Starting WRs

Backups

Rank

Tude

Holt/Walker

Y-

1

Dark

Owens/Clayton

Y

2

Chico

Moss/Jackson

Y+

3

JVE

Harrison/Moulds

Y

4

T&A

Horn/Coles

Y

5

Kooter

Wayne/Driver

Y

6

2Legit

Boldin/Rogers

Y

7

Dogs

C.Johnson/Ward

Y

8

Capitol

Burleson/Porter

Y-

9

Hostile

A.Johnson/Mason

Y-

10

THHP

Lelie/R.Williams

Y

11

MHTM

S.Smith/Branch

Y

12


The receiver rankings are really pretty obvious until we get down to the middle-to-late portions.  Yes, it may shock you that Owens/Clayton are ranked above Moss/Jackson, but that’s the way the numbers pan out and that’s all I have to say about that.

 

When we get down to 7-12, then we have stuff to talk about.

 

At #7 we have 2 Legit 2 Quit with Anquan Boldin and Charles Rogers.  GM Rich Fusinski couldn’t believe how far Boldin slipped in the rankings—especially with mad bomber Kurt Warner slinging passes all over the place now.  Did everyone forget this guy was a 180 point receiver in 2003?  At wideout number 2, we really have some interchangeable parts here if Charles Rogers doesn’t pan out—but 2 Legit 2 Quit is pretty sure that this year he will now that his collarbone problem is allegedly resolved.  When this guy HAS been on the field, he’s been absolutely insane.  Rogers is the kind of guy who can put up top 10 fantasy numbers, and if he does just that, this WR tandem has the potential to be crazy good.

 

At #8 we have Chad Johnson and Hines Ward, catching passes for Reservior Dogs.  While nobody can argue that Chad Johnson is fantastic, and a top-10 guy… Hines Ward is not.  Roethlisberger really got slowed down last year as the season went on, and is struggling pretty badly this year in the preseason as well.  Even if he duplicates the success that he had as a freshman, Ward’s value is still pretty miserable.  To put things in perspective, he wasn’t even a top 30 guy last year, and NOW he doesn’t have Burress to scare defenses out of double-teaming him.

 

Holding down the nine-spot is Capitol Punishment with Nate Burleson—the new #1 in Minnesota—and Jerry Porter (the new #2 in Oakland).  The problem I have with this tandem, and the reason they’re ranked somewhat low, is that I don’t believe Burleson is a legitimate #1 guy, and that Culpepper won’t treat him like one.  If you look as how Culpepper plays, when Moss has been out of the lineup he really spreads the ball around.  What GM Joe has here, in actuality, is a couple of really good #2 guys.  They’ll be 1000 yard, 8 TD guys—serviceable enough to get the job done, but nothing really beyond that.  The one thing they do have going for them, though, is a couple of gun-slinging QBs to throw to them.

 

At #10 we have Hostile Takeover with Andre Johnson and Derrick Mason.  On paper this looks like a really good tandem, but in actuality they are just very average.  I don’t understand the hype machine surrounding Johnson, personally, and Mason is in WR Hell in Baltimore with an utterly and completely inept QB.  Andre Johnson was a number 20 receiver last year, and frankly I don’t understand how the pundits are saying he’s going to break out this year to be a number 10.  Who’s going to get him the ball to do that?  Not David Carr.  And let’s not forget that there’s even less WR talent in Houston this year to take the heat off Johnson.  So should he be better?  Yeah.  Will he see more double teams?  Yeah.  So what does that mean?  The exact same numbers as last year.  GM Joe McHugh the Elder has two top twenty guys here…but the problem is that they’re both hanging out around the bottom of that twenty.

 

#11 and #12 leave us with Dave’s and Geoff’s receivers, and really this isn’t fair to Dave that I can’t rate Geoff any lower.  Dave has a potentially explosive WR combination of Lelie and Roy Williams—one that could actually make him the sixth-ranked WR tandem if they perform like they’re capable of—but my gut feeling is that Roy Williams will be about the #22 or 23 guy he was last year and that Lelie won’t improve too much more over last year’s numbers.  I think his skills are pretty much tapped out, and he’ll be limited to a flier-type receiver rather than an all-purpose guy.  Roy will be good, but hurt by the emergence of Charles Rogers if he can stay healthy.  Reports out of camp continue to say that Rogers is clearly the best of the Detroit receiving crop, so I fully expect Williams to put up #2-type receiver numbers.  As for Geoff’s squad—ugh.  Steve Smith and Deion Branch.  First of all, let’s face it—there’s no such thing as a #1 receiver in New England and there never will be as long as Tom Brady’s at the helm.  As for Steve Smith, well, he’s an injury concern as well as a question mark of a #1 guy.  He always seems to show up when they need him in Carolina, but as for fantasy numbers, we’ll see if he can be a 10-TD guy with the focus squarely on him.

Tight End Rankings

 

 

Starting TE

Backups

Rank

Capitol

Gonzalez

 

1

JVE

Gates

 

2

2Legit

Witten

 

3

Kooter

Shockey

 

4

Dark

Crumpler

 

5

Dogs

Heap

 

6

Tude

Johnson

 

7

Chico

Wiggins

 

8

MHTM

Clark

 

9

T&A

Franks

 

10

THHP

Putzier

 

10

Hostile

Troupe

 

12

 

We all know what the deal is here.  Gonzalez is in a class of his own, and GM Joe took him with the first pick in the third round.  Following that pick up, JV selected the other TE powerhouse Antonio Gates. Then you get to the 2nd tier guys in Witten, Shockey, Crumpler, Heap, and Johnson—in that order of decreasing point potential.  It gets a little nasty after that, with Wiggins, Clark, Franks, and Putzier.  And then at the bottom of the pile is Troupe.  I guess somebody has to get screwed.  When all is said and done, though, the top TE is still only going to score you about half of what an average QB will get you through a given season, so whatever.

Defense / Special Teams Rankings

 

 

Starting Defense

Backups

Rank

2Legit

Baltimore

 

1

Kooter

Buffalo

 

2

T&A

New England

 

3

MHTM

Atlanta

 

4

Tude

Philadelphia

 

5

Dogs

Pittsburgh

 

6

JVE

Carolina

 

7

Capitol

Go Home Tampa Bay

 

8

Dark

New York Jets

 

9

THHP

Indianapolis

 

10

Hostile

Minnesota

 

11

Chico

Miami

 

11

 

2 Legit 2 Quit GM Rich Fusinski finally decided it was time to mop up his yearly defense mess and pick one who was worth a damn for a change.  Baltimore was the selection, as they’ve been statistically the most consistent for years now.  Buffalo was an excellent selection by Boris as the #2 defense, as they were actually the top point-getter last year.  A really bad offense with JP Losman at the helm, however, should mean Baltimore back at the top.  After that we have New England’s D who is always excellent, followed by last year’s defensive wonder Atlanta, who should be right back up there this year with more energy and discipline.  At the five spot we have Philly, who, if they could score any TDs, would contend for the number one defense year in and year out.  After that we have Pittsburgh who also would be ranked higher if not for the reports of the offense being anemic this year, and especially so with the running back injury situation over there.  Field position could kill this defense in the end.  Following Pittsburgh is Carolina, who is a great defense football-wise, but not really fantasy-wise.  They don’t get a lot of sacks or more than the average amount of turnovers or touchdowns.  At #8 we have an aging Tampa Bay squad, and then the best of the rest: the Jets, the Colts, the re-tooled Vikings, and an aging Miami squad who lost Surtain and continues to get no help from their offense.

Final Draft Analysis

 

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

DEF

Rating

Rank

Result

Tude

8

1

1

7

5

17.46

1

Excellent

2Legit

6

3

7

3

1

22.10

2

Excellent

Capitol

4

2

9

1

8

24.99

3

Excellent

Dark

2

11

2

5

9

32.54

4

Good

Kooter

10

7

6

4

2

33.08

5

Good

T&A

3

10

5

10

3

33.33

6

Good

JVE

7

9

4

2

7

33.85

7

Good

Dogs

10

5

8

6

6

35.70

8

Average

Chico

1

12

3

8

11

37.23

9

Average

Hostile

4

6

10

12

11

40.01

10

Poor

THHP

10

3

11

10

10

40.40

11

Poor

MHTM

8

7

12

9

4

42.11

12

Poor

 

The final draft analysis is very telling.  Vince had a fantastic draft—the only GM with a Draft Rating under 20.  Joe and Rich are clearly the best of the rest as the only two teams under (well under) 30, and everyone else being above 32.  The middle section is particularly interesting, simply because there are so many teams SO close to one another in Draft Rating.  This could make for an interesting season.

 

According to the ratings, Vince will win D2 and Rich will win D1, with Joe getting the playoff wild card—although it is easy to see how the D1 results could flip-flop the other way.  That makes D3 completely up for grabs because Kooter, T&A, and the Reservoir Dogs are all so similarly rated.  If I was a betting man, I would venture that Kooter would come out on top of that pile, simply due to the fact that he has the better young RBs with the most upside, but in reality any of these three could come out on top.  This point in particular is interesting in of itself—the draft analysis has never seen this kind of competition amongst the D3 players.  I believe it speaks volumes about the snake draft format, and, in the incredibly wise words of Joe McHugh, “It looks like the snake draft really evened things out this year.”  IMAGINE THAT.

 

One other thing to note here is the possibility of JV winning D2 if Priest Holmes comes up lame this season.  JV is far and away the 2nd best team in D2, and that could mean no JVIT bid for Pat this season.  Here’s to hoping.