Rich’s Annual Fantasy Football Draft Analysis

2004 Edition

Howdy and welcome to another year of fantasy football! As always, I (Rich) perform an analysis on the fantasy draft and then I mock people and their rosters. A word to the wise: The 2004 Draft Analysis is not for the weak of heart. If you’re too sensitive to hear that your team sucks, then stop reading this article now. At any rate, I’m sure everyone just wants to jump right into this. But first, a quick word about how the analysis works (as the algorithm changes slightly from year to year):

The first step in the Fusinski Draft Analysis is to write down the starters at each position, and then rate the backups at those positions. Essentially, a Backups rating of Y means that there are legitimate backups here, and a rating of N means there is not. The Plus and Minus indicates the level of legitimacy (or lack thereof). For the most part, the ranking that follows is based on the quality of the starters, however in the case of Quarterbacks, the Backup players are more heavily weighted into the position ranking because of the frequency of QB injury.

After all teams have been ranked at individual positions, the average is taken across the rankings. There are, however, weights to certain positions. For instance, the running back and wide receiver positions are averaged in twice, because there are two starters at these positions. Some people may disagree with me that this is a good way of doing things, but it makes sense to me so SHUT THE HELL UP. Anyway, on to the rankings.

Running Back Rankings

	Starting RBs	Backups	Rank
MHTM	Alexander, Barlow	Y	1
Reservoir	McAllister, Dillon	N	2
Hostile	Portis, Faulk	N	3
Chico	Tomlinson, Westbrook	Y+	4
Kooter	Holmes, Staley	Y -	5
IHOP	Johnson, Brown	Y+	6
'tude	Taylor, Martin	Y	7
DarkSide	James, Davis	Y	8
JVE	Bennett, Davis	Y	9
Capitol	Lewis, Jones	Y	10
T&A	Green, Suggs	N	11
SSFFPA	Griffin, Wheatley	Y -	12

This year's RB spread was interesting, in the sense that nobody came out of the draft with a "killer" backfield.  MHTM,  however, came the closest with the combination of Shaun Alexander (who is primed for another great year) and Kevan Barlow who is no longer living in Garrison Hearst's shadow.  These backs combined are capable of surpassing 2800 yards on the ground and 30 TDs.   Playing second fiddle to MHTM is the Reservior Dogs with the combination of Deuce McAllister and Corey Dillon.  On paper this backfield looks great, and if they reach their potential the Dogs will be tough.   With no servicable backups, however, hope you play the Dogs on their bye week--and the same goes for Hostile Takeover, who rounds out our top three.  Joe Sr. has put together a pretty tough 1-2 punch between Portis and Faulk.  Portis should see the same production he's used to under Joe Gibbs who loves to run, and Faulk, although plagued by a weak offensive line, should still manage some decent rushing days and is, as always, a receiving threat as well.  Should Faulk go down, Mr. M was smart enough to draft Stephen Jackson to back him up.

Ranked number four is Chico's Bail Bonds, sporting the always fearsome LaDainian Tomlinson and the always injured Brian Westbrook.  Westbrook certainly has the potential to be a great #2 fantasy back, but will he survive an increased role in Philly with his small stature?  We'll see.  For now, injury concerns will keep Chico out of the top three in the RB rankings.  Without Westbrook, Jason is forced to go with Charlie Garner, who hasn't been the same since leaving Oakland.  At least he has a starting backup, though, which is more than we can say for fifth-RB-ranked Kooter, who drafted Priest Holmes with the coveted #1 selection in the draft but failed to secure a decent reservist.  Complementing Priest is new Pittsburgh Steeler Duce Staley, who frankly the jury is still out on.  My gut tells me that the Bus is never actually going to lose much playing time until he's 60 years old.  The guy was supposed to be done in Pitt for about a decade now but keeps getting carries.  Even so, Holmes is still worth two RBs on a bad day, so who needs backups?  Well, IHOP does.  At least, that was their draft strategy this year.  Snag Travis Henry in the middle rounds while everyone is still scared of him.  Between Rudi, Henry, and Chris Brown, who Titans coach Jeff Fisher said he was going to "run until he dies," IHOP GM Rich doesn't know who is going to emerge as the starting two just yet, but is confident that all three are a lot more dangerous than they get credit for.  This backfield will surprise.

The bottom half of the RB rankings starts with Attitude Adjustment, who frankly we aren't used to seeing here.  Usually GM Vince has three good RBs on his roster, but this year just managed to gather his boy Fred Taylor or recent Iron Man fame, an aging Curtis Martin who has delusions of 1500 yard grandeur, and a backup turned starter thanks to substance abuse in Travis Minor, who may not be starting come week 1 if a trade goes down.  Vince can't be happy with this trio, even though they will be servicable--at least enough to earn him the 7 spot in the RB rankings.  Speaking of delusions of grandeur, that had to be what the Dark Side was thinking when they drafted Stephen Davis as their #2 back.  Davis may disappoint this season with the return of DeShaun Foster to the lineup.  RB by committee is a rough ship to sail for a fantasy owner.  And Emmitt Smith, although a starting RB on paper, is really too far past his prime to contribute.  However, we still figure Davis to touch the ball 20 times a game, which should be good enough to produce average #2 back numbers--AND we figure Edge will be a stud this year.  As far as studs go, don't look the direction of the JV Experience, who is sporting the all-nagging-injury backfield in Bennett and Davis.  Bennett is explosive when he is healthy, but when was the last time that happened?  Davis has been experiencing a string of minor nagging injuries as well--not enough to keep him out, mind you--but enough to have the coaching staff questioning his durability.  Plus, with Hollings nipping at his heels, JV had better hope Davis doesn't miss a game or two or he may see decreased production out of his starter.  To his credit, however, potential is really the theme of this backfield.  If healthy, they could be dangerous.  Kevin Jones has potential to be a starter himself if Mariucci lets the lightning out of the bottle, but I don't see that happening--which really decreases the values of both Jones and Pinner, in all liklihood.  McGahee would be a great backup if Henry went down, but likely will be less of a factor than the media hype is playing him out to be and won't have any real value until next year.

Our bottom three in the rankings begins with Joe's Capitol Punishment.  Lewis is a great back, but I question how much he'll be able to focus in the face of his federal drug charges, even though I would like to believe he is innocent.  For validation of this theory, look no further than Kobe Bryant who suffered his worst season yet.  Additionally, Lewis may miss games starting in November.  This would leave Joe with a horriffic backfield with Thomas Jones as the starter and Eddie George as his #2.  Thomas Jones is garbage, and the hype surrounding this guy borders on the ridiculous.  Two good games and the media is willing to declare this guy a changed man?  I don't buy it, and I doubt I'm alone here.  As far as Eddie George is concerned, he hasn't had any gas in the tank for the past three years.  Eddie is going to lose carries per game as the season draws closer to December, decreasing his already strapped value with time.  If it makes Joe feel better, however, his backfield isn't nearly as questionable as Angelo's and Slater's, who sit at 11th and 12th in the rankings, respectively.  The funny thing about Angelo's backfield is that is has potential to be devastating--but only if Suggs wins the RB job in Cleveland outright--and with as much time and money as they have invested in William Green that is a question to ponder.  Likely, there will be a committee situation here as well, which really hurts Angleo and moves him down to #11.  Ahman Green is great, but without any servicable backup on this team Angleo could be in a world of hurt.  Slater, who sits at 12, however, is undoubtedly in a world of hurt.  Once you get past Quentin Griffin in this lineup, where do you look?  Tyrone Wheatley?  Been there before--that is a failed experiment.  How long will it be until Fargas steals the show, or more likely the committee rears its ugly head?  SSFFPA is going to have to find an answer somewhere else, either through free agency or trade if they are going to compete on the RB plane.

Quarterback Rankings

	Starting QB	Backups	Rank
Kooter	Manning	Y++	1
IHOP	Culpepper	Y+	2
Reservior	McNabb	Y	3
SSFFPA	Vick	Y	4
'tude	Hasselbeck	Y	5
T&A	Favre	Y	6
Chico	Green	Y	7
Hostile	Bulger	Y	8
MHTM	Pennington	Y	9
JVE	Brooks	Y	10
DarkSide	Brady	N	11
Capitol	Palmer	Y -	12

<>I would love to be able to rank myself #1 in this category, but that wouldn't be doing  Kooter's QB tandem of Peyton Manning and Steve McNair any justice, who were ranked 2 and 5 on my draft board, respectively.  Never has a team been so secure at one position--it borders on the insane.  Not that we really expect McNair to play a single game wearing a Kooter uniform, but that kind of security is a luxury most teams never have.   If I was a betting man, however, I would venture that McNair is off this team by week six at the latest--most likely a part of another shady trade orchestrated by Joe McHugh.  Note to Boris: David Boston is in the IR list.  Well, now that I got that out of the way, I can rank myself at #2 in good conscience.  Daunte Culpepper puts up fantasy points like nobody's business.  There really isn't a lot more one needs to say about that.  Backing up Culpepper is former pro-bowler Jeff Garcia, who I believe is going to have somewhat of a rebirth in Cleveland.  Let's not forget that this guy strung together two consecutive 30 TD seasons just three seasons ago, and has enough weapons in Cleveland to do the same once again.  If called upon, Garcia would be a very good reserve.  Next on the list is Reservior Dogs' Donovan McNabb, who is primed to have a career season in Philadelphia with the acquisition of wide receiver Terrell Owens from San Francisco.  But that being said, the Dogs are lucky to have snuck into the top three here because if not for Michael Vick's nagging hammy and recent injury history, the Dogs would have been bumped down to four, which is where SSFFPA sits--and really where the fantasy QB talent drops off thereafter.  Vick is the last QB of the "big 4," and really has the most potential here.  If he wasn't a damned China Cup, I might have even drafted him in the first round instead of Culpepper.  Vick is capable of absolutely ridiculous big plays, and if he stays healthy look out.  He could be the top point-getter in fantasy football this year.

Most everyone else is really on the same plane here as far as QBs go, with the exception of one.  We'll get to him in a moment.  For now, we'll just say that the QB race between Hasselbeck, Favre, Green, Bulger, Pennington, Brooks, and Brady is too damn close to call.  All are capable of 3000+ yard, 25 TD seasons, and who knows how it's going to shake out.  Just be glad you grabbed one of these guys and didn't end up like #12 ranked Capitol Punishment.

What was Joe thinking?  His starter is Carson Palmer and his backup is Josh McCown.  These guys are both too young to put up any kind of good numbers, and McCown probably will never be talented enough to do so.  Palmer put up great numbers in the preseason against New England--which is probably what Joe has based this pick on--but many analysts in the sports world have said that they believe the Patriots folded purposely to give Palmer a false sense of confidence, because they play the Bengals in the regular season.  In all reality, unless Palmer is John Elway, which he's not, he's not going to put up great numbers.  Im fact, I would expect David Carr to put up better numbers and I put them both right about equal as far as potential is concerned--and have them listed as emergency-use fantasy backups just a notch above Joey Harrington.  Good luck to Joe with this one--he had better find a solution here more sooner than later or his season is going to be over before it starts.

Wide Receiver Rankings

	Starting WRs	Backups	Rank
Chico	Holt, Ward	Y+	1
T&A	Owens, Jackson	Y	2
SSFFPA	Harrison, Smith	Y	3
JVE	Moss, A. Johnson	Y	4
MHTM	Mason, S. Smith	Y	5
Kooter	Moss, Walker	Y	6
Capitol	Horn, Rogers	Y -	7
IHOP	Moulds, Bruce	Y -	8
'tude	Price, Robinson	Y -	9
DarkSide	Coles, Burress	Y -	10
Reservior	Chambers, K. Johnson	Y	11
Hostile	C. Johnson, Fitzgerald	Y -	12

Things really get interesting on the Wide Receiver front.  More interesting than I've seen in years, I think.  Because of this, the WR rankings are going to have my most in-depth analysis--what a change of pace!  For starters, there is a clear cut favorite here.  Chico's Bail Bonds is without question the class of the draft in this category.  Torry Holt--whose numbers have potential to even pass the mighty Randy Moss--is my favorite receiver as of late and a consistent fantasy numbers powerhouse.  If there was any question as to whether Torry was going to keep the pace he set last year, look no further than the last preseason game where he racked up 150 yards in the first half.  He and Mark Bulger aren't only on the same page, they are on the same brainwave.  Combine him with Hines Ward--another top-5 receiver, and you have yourself a dominant tandem.  But kids, the fun doesn't stop there.  If you're playing GM Jason Miller in week 7 or 8, you will still have to contend with the likes of Rod Smith or Donald Driver.  This guy has 5... count 'em... 5 number ones on his team, and that's not even counting holdout Keenan McCardell who is another very capable wideout (almost as capable as David Boston).  There is some serious trade bait on this team and we fully expect GM Jason to move some talent around before the trade deadline expires.

So that gets Jason out of the way, but what about everyone else?  Well, there are some other dangerous receiver corps out there this year, too.  This was a very deep WR draft, and it shows by the following tandems:

Ranked #2 -- Terrell Owens / Darrell Jackson: These are a couple of WRs to be seriously feared--GM Angelo has some serious explosiveness here, albeit two WRs with cases of the dropsies.  Owens is coming off the worst season in his modern career and looks to revive huge numbers in Philadelphia behind the arm of underrated passer Donovan McNabb.  McNabb is locked into this guy--if T.O. can keep his head on straight, he's going to be dangerous as all hell.  Darrell Jackson is sort of the same way--when he can limit his mistakes, he is capable of huge games week in and week out.  The bottom line here is that these are two top-10 receivers who are going to get T&A a few wins all by themselves.

Ranked #3 -- Marvin Harrison / Jimmy Smith: No slowing down for Marvin, and Jimmy is going to come back in a big way.  The Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison connection is virtually unstoppable, and look for that to continue in a big way with 2004 being a contract year for the wideout.  Jimmy Smith is way on the wrong side of 30, but QB Leftwich should make big strides this season and revive the aging star's statistics.  Don't expect 1600 yards like in '99, but remember this guy still went for 800 and 4 scores in just 12 games this year with his best yards per catch in five seasons, so 1100-1200 yards and 8 TDs doesn't seem unreasonable with an improved young QB under center.

Ranked #4 -- Randy Moss / Andre Johnson: This ranking was my most difficult to pin-point, and could have easily been as high as number two.  I gave in, however, to the fact that Andre Johnson is still an unproven commodity, even though I personally like him a lot.  A breakout year is expected for young wideout Johnson, and this guy is primed for stardom a year ahead of normal WR schedule.  In his second year, Johnson is projected to be a top-15 receiver, and improving QB David Carr's favorite target.  He is explosive with that extra gear, and has tremendous size and great hands.  As for Moss, what really needs to be said about this guy?  Randy already has 77 touchdowns in his brilliant six-year career, and just keeps getting better.  Last season was his best, as he went off for 1600+ yards and 17 scores.  With QB Daunte Culpepper playing like he did last season, don't expect any less from the star.  GM JV should really expect big things from his WR tandem this season.

The next tier of WR pairs isn't quite as fearsome, but will still get the job done well enough such that they won't be liabilities.

Ranked #5: -- Derrick Mason / Steve Smith: At the head of Tier 2 is MHTM with a pair of great, reliable WRs.  These are both top-notch wideouts, but aren't really capable of tremendous feats.  What can be expected out of these guys is consistency and the occasional better than normal week.  These are both 1000-1200 yard, 8 TD guys who can be counted on week in and week out to produce good enough numbers to keep GM Geoff's team in the running for a win every Sunday.

Ranked #6 -- Santana Moss / Javon Walker: Two guys who really started to shine last year, and who expect to continue to improve in 2004.  Santana Moss has really shown a connection with QB Chad Pennington, but probably isn't as good as he has looked in the past.  Moss came on as sort of a surprise last season with some tremendous multi-touchdown games seemingly out of nowhere, but this year defenses will be ready for him.  Defensive coordinators will want to make Justin McCarens beat them, and in such a tough defensive division, being that he is too small to be a physical receiver, it is doubtful that Moss's totals will get any better because of this.  That being said, 1100 yards and 10 scores would be very much welcomed by GM Boris.  As for Javon Walker, this is a guy with a lot of upside who is battling to be the Pack's top receiver, and is showing tremendous improvement.  It seems like Favre is beginning to really trust this guy, which means that Walker is going to be getting a lot of Brett Favre slings towards the endzone--probably more than complimentary receivers Driver and Ferguson.  That being said, Driver and Ferguson are still hanging around out there seeing a lot of balls, and as long as they're around Walker will never be great.  He is, however, an excellent #2 fantasy receiver and will not disappoint as such.

Ranked #7 -- Joe Horn / Charles Rogers: Joe Horn has always been a solid #1 receiver for some time now even though he was held to under 1000 yards for the first time since 1999.  The guy was previously good for about 1300 yards for the three seasons before, so that knee injury he sustained in week 1 makes you wonder how much that's going to impact his effectiveness this year.  He just wasn't the same receiver we had been accustomed to seeing make quick cuts with blazing speed.  Being that he's now 32, I wonder if that is going to be more of the trend than the anomaly.  So that being said, this tandem of receivers really begins the "Something to Prove" category, especially with second-year wideout Charles Rogers as the #2 here.  Personally, I'm a believer that Rogers is something special and is going to be a stud... I'm just not sure it's going to be this year with Harrington still being a question mark and the offense being so generally young.  Therefore, Team Capitol Punishment is really teetering on the fence here with one side being toughness and the other being pushover.  I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt here and leaning towards toughness, with both of these guys producing like #10 to #20 receivers and generating a pretty decent amount of fantasy points.

This next group of WRs is really the "Something to Prove" category, and should have their GMs slightly worried about their week to week production.

Ranked #8 -- Eric Moulds / Isaac Bruce: Talk about a reach--but potential resulting in serious middle-round value.  Eric Moulds had a great season with Peerless Price on the other side of the field, but last year suffered greatly from a combination of that loss and Drew Bledsoe imploding.  Well, now with a new offensive coordinator in Mike Mularkey, I believe Bledsoe is really going to turn it around this year and Moulds is going to return to 1000 yard, 7-8 TD form with Bruce throwing in another 1000 and 6-7 scores.  Granted this WR tandem could produce absolute squat, but we had these guys ranked 15 and 20, respectively, and expect them to produce as such.

Ranked #9 -- Peerless Price / Koren Robinson: Another group of WRs here that haven't reached their potential in their situations, but both with the capacity to produce in the range of 15th ranked receivers.  Peerless Price, since leaving Buffalo and benefiting from the presence of Eric Moulds, has shown his true colors in his inability to really be a #1 receiver.  He's just really not good enough.  However, with the presence of Michael Vick and his threat to run, Price should see less double coverage and could benefit from some big plays via broken play/Vick throwing on the run.  I expect Price to improve on his 800 yard, 3 TD season to the tune of something like 1000 yards and 5 scores.  As for Robinson, he was supposed to be the next big thing but Darrell Jackson seems to have stolen his thunder in Seattle.  Robinson is still young and improving, however, and should not be discounted yet.  Last year the man's stat line was 900 yards and 4 TDs, and should continue to improve along the same line as Price's projected statistics.  GM Vince's group of WR's could have been ranked #8 ahead of IHOP, but I chose to go with the proven commodities over the rising potentials.

Ranked #10 -- Laveranues Coles / Plaxico Burress: Coles really started off strong last season with 400 yards in three games, seriously inflating his stat line.  He only threw up one 100 yard game after that, and failed to really impress.  With the QB situation being erratic in Washington this year and both QBs failing to impress in the preseason, we expect Coles' stats to regress from his 2003 campaign to something in the neighborhood of 1000 yards and 5-6 scores.  As for Burress, this guy really took a step back last year and lost focus, and never regained it.  Burress spent the offseason skipping mini-camps and voluntary sessions, and what possibly hurts his stock more is if Pittsburgh gets off to a similar start as they did last year and QB Maddox is pulled out of the starting lineup in favor of developing Ben Roethlisberger.  I wouldn't expect Burress to post any better numbers than he did last year, with 860 yards and 4 TDs--and things could get worse.

Ranked #11 -- Chris Chambers, Keyshawn Johnson, Amani Toomer:  Since I don't really know which two of these guys will start, I'll discuss them all.  Chris Chambers improves every year, but the offense in Miami seems to get worse every year, too.  The loss of RB Ricky Williams really hurts Chambers' stock, as the run is no longer a threat in Miami.  I would expect Chambers' numbers to be worse than they were last year without a doubt because of this.  Expect Keyshaun Johnson to has somewhat of a revival in Dallas until Testaverde runs out of gas or gets hurt.  Johnson will have great fantasy value for about 7-8 games, I predict, and then when Henson is forced behind center his production will die off.  Expect a similar situation with Amani Toomer in New York--with Warner running the offense Toomer will post his usual numbers, but when Manning is eventually given the job his stats will drop off.  It is easy to see how GM Joe Wyly's WR situation could start off wonderful and end in complete misery--this is why his group has been given such a low ranking.

Ranked #12 -- Chad Johnson / Larry Fitzgerald: One is an established receiver with a young quarterback who should have a good season, the other is a rookie with a garbage quarterback on a team without a running threat, and missing their established receiver.  Chad Johnson's numbers will suffer slightly with Carson Palmer at QB, but should still see good production.  I am obviously not sold on the tremendously talented Larry Fitzgerald as a #2, however, because McCown is going to struggle mightily--especially with no run support.  Fitzgerald is much more suited to be a #3 fantasy wideout this year, and because GM Joe Sr. has no other options at the position, he is stuck with the #12 WR ranking.  Boo hoo.

Tight End Rankings

	Starting TE	Backups	Rank
'tude	Gonzalez		1
Reservoir	Winslow Jr.		2
SSFFPA	Heap		3
T&A	Crumpler		4
Capitol	Shockey		5
IHOP	Williams		6
MHTM	Witten / Gates		7
Hostile	McMichael		8
Chico	Graham		9
JVE	Franks / Smith		10
Kooter	Pollard		11
DarkSide	Kinney		12

We all know what the deal is here. Gonzalez is in a class of his own, and GM Vince thought he was worth a second round draft pick.  He was probably right.  Attitude Adjustment wins the TE lottery.  Following Vince with the #2 ranking is GM Joe Wyly having drafted Kellen Winslow, Jr.  Sure to be QB Jeff Garcia's favorite target amongst a group of average, albeit speedy receivers, Winslow has the potential to accumulate numbers rivaling Gonzalez production.  After that at #3 we have Todd Heap on SSFFPA, and at #4, to GM Angelo, Alge Crumpler--who should benefit from Vick's return and see his TD production improve playing the safety valve role in Atlanta.  At #5 we have the always-injured Jeremy Shockey to Capitol Punishment, who will probably still put up his large yardage numbers and lack of TDs, and then Boo Williams to IHOP who may be the most underrated TE in the draft, capable of great numbers and perhaps even third highest in point total amongst his kind.  Rounding out the TE class we have Jason Witten and Antonio Gates to GM Geoff who has a controversy on his hands at the position, and then Randy McMichael to Hostile Takeover who may benefit from a stale offense in Miami and the need to look at other options than Chambers due to double-teams.  After that, it's kind of a wash as far as TEs go, with the remaining four guys being pretty average and simply ranked according to statistical trend analysis.

Defense / Special Teams Rankings

	Starting Defense	Backups	Rank
Capitol	New England		1
DarkSide	Baltimore		2
Hostile	Carolina / Denver		3
HMTM	Philly		4
IHOP	Tampa Bay		5
T&A	Dallas		6
'tude	Miami		7
Kooter	St. Louis / Oakland		8
Chico	Pittsburgh		9
JVE	KC		10
SSFFPA	Minnesota		11
Reservoir	Washington		12

At #1 we have Capitol Punishment who always seems to have a good defense.  This year he has the best in New England, who has the most talented defense in the league and also has the most depth.  At #2 we have Baltimore to GM Tom--will Neon Deion be returning punts and picks for this ravenous bunch?  The return of McAllister also helps tremendously.  At #3, Hostile Takeover reigns with two options: Carolina and Denver.  Carolina should still be a good defense but has lost some key players, and Denver should be improved with super cover corner Champ Bailey taking out one side of the field.  MHTM owns the 4 spot with Philadelphia--not only is their defense good but their offense should force teams into situations that makes the defense look even better on paper.  At 5 we have IHOP starting Tampa Bay.  Sapp who?  Lynch who?  McFarland moves into Sapp's spot, and the LB corps are upgrades with Ian Gold.  TB should be a top five defense once again.  At number 6 we have T&A with Dallas--ranked this low because the 'boys still don't have a good corner.  How long can this keep up before offenses figure them out?  Attitude Adjustment is ranked #7 with Miami, and I don't know if I should have even ranked them this high.  The offense there is going to keep this overrated defense ON the field.  Kooter comes in at #8 with the St. Louis / Oakland combination.  St. Louis led the league in takeaways and was fourth in sacks, and Oakland is retooled with wiley veterans.  After this, it's a wash again.  Chico will be starting the struggling Pittsburgh defense who is primed for a comeback IF the offense can get it done this year.  JV is hoping that KC can keep the scoring spree up, even though that is highly unlikely.  SSFFPA is hoping the Vikings bunch can get their act together, and I don't know WHAT GM Joe Wyly is thinking.

Final Draft Analysis

	QB	RB (x2)	WR (x2)	TE	DEF	Avg.	Rank	Drafted	+/-	Result
IHOP	2	6	8	6	5	5.9	3	10	+7	excellent
SSFFPA	4	12	3	3	11	6.9	8	12	+5	excellent
MTHM	9	1	5	7	4	4.6	1	4	+3	great
'tude	5	7	9	1	7	6.4	7	8	+2	great
Reservoir	3	2	11	2	12	6.1	6	6	E	good
Chico	7	4	1	9	9	5.0	2	2	E	good
DarkSide	11	8	10	12	2	8.7	12	11	-1	average
Capitol	12	10	7	5	1	7.4	10	9	-1	average
T&A	6	11	2	4	6	6.0	4	3	-1	average
Hostile	8	3	12	8	3	7.0	9	5	-3	poor
Kooter	1	5	6	11	8	6.0	4	1	-3	poor
JVE	10	9	4	10	10	8.0	11	7	-5	horrible

The final draft analysis is very telling.  IHOP and SSFFPA had by far the best drafts, moving up 7 and 5 spots from where they should be.  Geoff put together a good enough draft to move him all the way to the top of the list--the best ranked team.  Jason drafted well enough for him to maintain his stranglehold on the 2 spot, and Kooter really dropped the ball sliding all the way to 4th.  Joe Wyly drafted well enough to remain a force in maintaining the 6 spot, and Vince and Tom both drafted well, but not well enough to put them in playoff contention. Perhaps the biggest surprise was Pat's draft--he slipped all the way down to the worst-ranked team from drafting seventh.  Congratulations, Mr. McHugh... you are ranked the 9th best team this year.  Buy Pat, Tom, and your son some beers.

Regular Season Predictions

As far as predicted money-winners go, we have two top-4 draftees in Geoff and Jason slated to finish in the 1 and 2 positions, with IHOP almost an entire point away (.9) coming up in third.  There are your division winners, kids.  Rich for DI, Jason for DII, and Geoff for DIII.  Losing their divisions are Joe in DI, JV in DII, and Reservior Dogs in DIII.  How about that plummet, kids?  Pat slides down from DI to DIII in the blink of an eye.  The wild card goes to Kooter... he will trade McNair away to improve his squad well enough to make playoffs.